Severe Weather Spring 2012

[MrOysterhead]

That GFS run is scary. I can only hope it's the result of wrong data or something along those lines.

I hate to mention this especially considering my lack of knowledge, but are we in any way looking at an event like April of last year?

[andyhb]

Understood.  Judging from the setup, it looks the greatest threat would be to the right of a line going from Grenada, MS to Evansville, IN to Lexington, KY to Atlanta, GA back to Grenada.  Does that sound right?  The reason I say this is because it looks like areas around the MS River get missed due to the front moving through quickly.

Of course, this is still 5 days out, and I'm trying to judge the setup.

Yeah that sounds like a good preliminary outlook if something like this verifies.

[andyhb]

That GFS run is scary. I can only hope it's the result of wrong data or something along those lines.

I hate to mention this especially considering my lack of knowledge, but are we in any way looking at an event like April of last year?

People will continue to assume this for awhile considering the magnitude of 4/27, but they need to realize to tempo their gusto. This is not a direct shot on you by any means, just a general observation.

And no, it does not look like 4/27 at this point.

And for the first point, this run of the GFS OP is the only one over the past several days (outside of maybe the 18z run this afternoon) to conduct the UL energy somewhat properly as it reaches the west coast in about three and a half days. This likely has to do with the upper energy from this first system now digging into the west, the GFS has finally seen that and can make calculations/projections on how the second UL jet streak associated with the second system is likely to behave.

00z ECMWF...oh lord...984 mb SLP over E IA at 120...and a huge LLJ across much of the warm sector...

[beneficii]

People will continue to assume this for awhile considering the magnitude of 4/27, but they need to realize to tempo their gusto. This is not a direct shot on you by any means, just a general observation.

And no, it does not look like 4/27 at this point.

And for the first point, this run of the GFS OP is the only one over the past several days (outside of maybe the 18z run this afternoon) to conduct the UL energy somewhat properly as it reaches the west coast in about three and a half days. This likely has to do with the upper energy from this first system now digging into the west, the GFS has finally seen that and can make calculations/projections on how the second UL jet streak associated with the second system is likely to behave.

00z ECMWF...oh lord...984 mb SLP over E IA at 120...and a huge LLJ across much of the warm sector...

Out of curiosity, since I can't seem to find SkewT info from the Euro on the e-wall, where would the winds at the surface be backed?

[andyhb]

It would be due S or backed over a large area with a sfc low that strong, but:

[beneficii]

It would be due S or backed over a large area with a sfc low that strong, but:

What are the greens and yellows?  Inquiring minds want to know.

[andyhb]

Sfc winds in knots. Like that section in W TN is 15-18 kts. And near the low (the big area of yellow on the N/W side) is 30-40 kts.

[beneficii]

Sfc winds in knots. Like that section in W TN is 15-18 kts. And near the low (the big area of yellow on the N/W side) is 30-40 kts.

Thanks for the maps.  If I may have one more that I'm trying to find: something like a sfc-850 mb crossover.

[andyhb]

Here's H5 to sfc cross-over at 114 from the 00z GFS:

[beneficii]

So possibly in what the Euro is showing, we would get initial development east of a line from Shreveport, LA to Little Rock, AR to Cape Girardeau, MO in the early-to-mid afternoon on Friday, probably in the form of supercells perhaps eventually congealing into an MLCS.  By the time 6 PM rolls around the supercells/MLCS would be perhaps from Monroe, LA to Grenada, MS to Lexington, KY?

[andyhb]

So possibly in what the Euro is showing, we would get initial development east of a line from Shreveport, LA to Little Rock, AR to Cape Girardeau, MO in the early-to-mid afternoon on Friday, probably in the form of supercells perhaps eventually congealing into an MLCS.  By the time 6 PM rolls around the supercells/MLCS would be perhaps from Monroe, LA to Grenada, MS to Lexington, KY?

I think you're getting a little ahead of yourself 

But, the Euro sfc looks to be initiating convection all the way from the Gulf Coast to the OV or even the Great Lakes...which doesn't surprise me considering the absolutely titanic size of the warm sector.

[Charles L.]

Mid-week system (Late Tuesday night-early Wednesday for west TN/KY, Wednesday-Wed night for middle/east TN) still not looking too bad, IMO. Morning NAM run has increased instability values, somewhat...but nothing too far out of the ordinary for a February severe day.

I like the SPC's current probability outlooks and discussion...so I choose to echo their sentiments.

[Thundersnow]

Well, nothing to sneeze at... the SPC is showing a swath of 30% probs on Day 3:

[cd2play]

I wish this storm would either speed up and come and go during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow evening or slow down and arrive just after rush hour Wednesday morning.  Anything to keep from having to deal with overnight storms.  I hate those more than tooth drilling. 

[Flash]

Gotta admit...I'm skeptical after last Thursday's no-show. Better chance that a lack of CAPE or another unbustable cap will occur and hinder development than having something widespread and trackworthy...