Severe Weather Spring 2012

[Matthew]

Even if the pattern does flip Feburary thru March.  That still leaves April & first of May.  As we saw last year.  April can pack a punch.  Mid/West Tenn. was very fortunate to have missed that awful day.  So if the pattern flips it could flip again right after March.  That I could see happening.  I also could see this pattern staying the same.  Seems we are in uncharted waters to some extent. 

[titans fan]

For what it's worth, Dr Forbes posted on Facebook today
Dr. Greg Forbes
"My preliminary count is 68 tornadoes thus far in January (51 have been EF-rated by NWS). The 68 would be third most on record for January (trailing 1999 with 212 and 2008 with 84)."

And 2008 was an active year

[andyhb]

Yeah 1999's January was off the charts, largely thanks to the huge outbreak sequence between Jan 17th and Jan 23rd...

[titans fan]

I believe it was the 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak that convinced me to go to my first Storm Spotter Class.

[cd2play]

Noticing that yet another very active severe weather season is predicted this spring.  Wondering if this trend is going to continue for years to come. 

[toastido]

Noticing that yet another very active severe weather season is predicted this spring.  Wondering if this trend is going to continue for years to come.

Care to elaborate on this statement?  Where is this prediction?  Who made it?  When was it made?   

[andyhb]

Recent runs of the GFS look good for a severe threat for the beginning of met Spring next week, just something to watch/keep in mind.

[beneficii]

Recent runs of the GFS look good for a severe threat for the beginning of met Spring next week, just something to watch/keep in mind.

Right, and MEG mentioned it as well in their AFD.  This looks like a potential outbreak going anywhere from the Plains to the Tennessee Valley.  Here is MEG:

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAD A HARD TIME FINDING ANY GUIDANCE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES I AGREED WITH NEXT WEEK...SO STARTED WITH THE
GFS...BUT IN GENERAL RAISED READINGS 4-12 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT COOL...BUT NOT ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF TDS. STARTING TO SEE THE MAKINGS OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DAYS TO REBOUND. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS
MISSOURI...PLACING THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A TON OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND LOTS OF TIME FOR THINGS TO
CHANGE...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON.

[jmundie]

Right, and MEG mentioned it as well in their AFD.  This looks like a potential outbreak going anywhere from the Plains to the Tennessee Valley.  Here is MEG:

I wouldn't jump on board with this just yet as a severe threat. Ensembles are anywhere from an overrunning event to a miller b and big east coast snowstorm to a midsouthwx severe event.

Ensemble spread goes crazy beyond Saturday.

[andyhb]

I wouldn't jump on board with this just yet as a severe threat. Ensembles are anywhere from an overrunning event to a miller b and big east coast snowstorm to a midsouthwx severe event.

Ensemble spread goes crazy beyond Saturday.

I wouldn't use the "o" word, but I don't see the harm in mentioning this as a possible svr threat of some sort, at least it isn't one of those fantasy 10+ day svr threats the GFS has been churning out recently.

[jmundie]

I wouldn't use the "o" word, but I don't see the harm in mentioning this as a possible svr threat of some sort, at least it isn't one of those fantasy 10+ day svr threats the GFS has been churning out recently.

No - I totally agree. Some of the ensembles appear significant to my untrained eye - but I don't trust any of the op runs w/o ensemble support right now, with the terrible performance of late.

[andyhb]

One thing though, the Gulf does look like it will open for this, and with potentially favorable trajectories for reliable moisture return.

00z GFS has the threat as well, as well as several more after it (not that it will verify, but looks pretty active that's for sure). 

Yesterday's 00z CMC looked ominous until the southern stream split off from the northern at around 144 hrs, will be interesting to see if this system can kick the persistent pattern for this to occur that has been happening all Winter.

Edit: Today's 00z CMC on board...

Day 4-8 mentioning the possibility:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012
   
   VALID 261200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   
   THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
   THROUGH DAY 6 REGARDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION. HOWEVER..THEY
   HAVE NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND ENSEMBLE
   SPREADS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER
   PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MODERATELY AMPLIFIED AS A SERIES
   OF WAVES TRAVERSE THE COUNTRY.
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO DAY 4 WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DUE TO
   LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT MAY
   INCREASE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY
   /DAY 6/ THEN OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES WEDNESDAY AS RICHER GULF
   MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM WAVE. IF MODELS BEGIN TO
   SHOW BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY A RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE
   INTRODUCED IN LATER UPDATES.

[beneficii]

18z GFS seems to keep the threat, for Wednesday evening.  Instability is a little questionable on it, and it's showing a cap as late as 00z 2/29, but dew point (15 degrees Celsius plus) and wind fields are favorable over the Mid-South.  They're showing very good turning of the winds with height at the low levels.

[andyhb]

18z GFS seems to keep the threat, for Wednesday evening.  Instability is a little questionable on it, and it's showing a cap as late as 00z 2/29, but dew point (15 degrees Celsius plus) and wind fields are favorable over the Mid-South.  They're showing very good turning of the winds with height at the low levels.

12z Euro is much more impressive, by the way.

[andyhb]

00z GFS maintains the threat with a powerful SLP and 60s dews to Cairo (OH/MS River junction) in the 5-6 day period. 50s dews all the way to N IL.

Edit: 00z GGEM/CMC on track as well, with a similar solution to the GFS.