Severe Outbreak 1/22-23

[jmundie]

Looks like I missed some drama today that has since been deleted.

Kevin was right in his critique of my post. I posted that GFS run quickly, and I think I was remembering a prior run.

Regardless - even the Euro a few days ago showed something nasty with a nice cut off/trough moving through the middle of the country and a surface low in missouri.

But there are like three systems that have to move through before this one. Honestly, I'm hoping we get a cutoff further south, with a colder core, so maybe we can get some snow.

[Milodog2]

I didn't say you couldn't talk about it. Where did I say that anywhere? I said people shouldn't get worked up about it...like the specifics and certainly whether this will end up a big event. Might be...but might end up being no worse than Today was. With the model inconsistencies and full week to watch...again there's just no need to get worked up about it but that also doesn't mean you're prohibited from discussing it.

Anyway...otherwise I echo what Charles said.

Look I'm just asking questions here ok. I could tell in your post that in a nice way you were telling people to chill out about the system. I don't think I got the whole story on why you made that post as it seems their was some posts that got deleted. Sorry if I offended you.


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[Kevin]

Look I'm just asking questions here ok. I could tell in your post that in a nice way you were telling people to chill out about the system. I don't think I got the whole story on why you made that post as it seems their was some posts that got deleted. Sorry if I offended you.


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There was a very specific reason I had the tone I had...and it actually had nothing to do with something someone said here....which is one of the main reasons I took issue with it. There have been no posts deleted from this forum.

In all seriousness though...people do need to chill out about this system. GFS for one run has the look of a major outbreak...the next its nothing more than a rainy day. People at other places have made direct comparisons to certain events last year...which is nothing less than ludicrous.

That doesn't mean everybody should be quiet and not mention it...just let it play out without the hype and unreasonable speculation...and in a few days if things still look ominous...it will be time to get serious. And don't make broad generalizations about specific comments one makes then take it to other venues to spew attacks.

[jmundie]

BTW - this severe event is all but gone from the models. We're getting more troughiness in the east, and the warm up doesn't appear that it will verify.

Seems like mild and brief cold is the name of the game, otherwise known as boring weather.

[Eric]

Nice cut-off low, Mr. GooFuS....very nice indeed.  Model solutions continue to be all over the place.  Maybe we'll have a decent picture of what the week holds by the weekend.

[WinterHW]

12Z run of Euro and GFS bringing the threat back for the Mid-South especially. Will be interesting to see how MRX treats it in the AFD. Last several runs have been heading back up on the severe threat...will be interesting to see if the trend continues with the 18Z. Definitely something to keep an eye on, along with the timing of it...considering we are getting much closer to the event.
 

[Thundersnow]

Hmm... here's an unusual afternoon update for the Day 3 outlook, introducing a sizeable Slight Risk area for the system for the first of the week. 

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
   MS/OH VALLEYS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...
   
   AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA
   
   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
   
   20/12Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS NOW BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
   WHICH HAVE MORE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A MORE INTENSE AND LOWER
   LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
   TILTED ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
   INTO MONDAY MORNING.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT
   WHICH WILL MOVE INTO GULF COAST REGION DURING THE D1/D2 PERIOD WILL
   LIKELY WEAKEN...RESULTING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SHELF WATERS. 
   
   GIVEN THE MORE SRN TRACK OF THE STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH...CONFIDENCE
   IS INCREASING THAT THE NWD-RETURNING WARM SECTOR WILL COINCIDE WITH
   STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED
   FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WITH SUPERCELLS AND LINE
   SEGMENTS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
   
   ..MEAD/GOSS.. 01/20/2012

The dates on this event topic may need to be adjusted up a couple of days.

[Eric]

MEG's AFD concerning this event:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD SHIFTING FROM A POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT CROSSES THE OZARKS. ON THE SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
START OFF COOL SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY BY MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 23/00Z. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO REACHING THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. THE EURO SHOWS MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5
TO 7C RANGE STARTING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO APPEARS MORE BACKED AS A 995MB SFC LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. THE ONLY MODEL DIFFERENCES IS THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW A FASTER SYSTEM WITH A LESS INTENSE SFC LOW. THIS
PLACES CONVECTION INITIATION NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
INSTEAD OF EURO SOLUTION IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EURO SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THIS WEEKEND STORM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE A
GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE MIDSOUTH LATE
SUNDAY WITH A HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
BREEZY WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN BEGIN TO SEPARATE TIMING SOLUTIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A SPLIT
FLOW. A CUTOFF LOW PINCHED OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL CROSS
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
RETURNING TO THE REGION ALONG WITH WAA SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
GOING BE TOUGH TO FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS. FOR
NOW HAVE KEPT THEM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY GENERATING HIGH QPF FOR THE AREA. HAVE LEFT POPS TO JUST
CHANCE AT THIS TIME AS THE CLOSED LOW MAY LINGER WELL OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST KEEPING US DRY FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

[Thundersnow]

Dates of the system in this thread have been changed to the 22nd-23rd in order to reflect the late Sunday, early Monday timeframe.

[Kevin]

As MEG says...for its CWA...big problem is difference between NAM/GFS and ECMWF. The former two don't develop convection until the system is well east of the area. Euro holds back a bit and thus we're a bit more directly impacted. If the NAM/GFS are right...this will be a Middle TN event only (if anything does happen). We'll see...

[Eric]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT HAS MORE INSTAB IN THE MODELS FROM HEATING ON
SUNDAY...AND WL MENTION SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE FOR ALL COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN THREATS WITH SEVERE WEATHER TNGT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED

[Bigm33]

This system may actually bear watching...and plus the fact it appears (at least according to the models) that it will move through here rather quickly means it could pack a good punch. Needless to say Sunday I'm prepared to not be able to watch all of the NFL conference championship games in anticipation of the Memphis TV stations going to wall-to-wall SVR coverage  and of course that all depends on timing as well.

[Kevin]

This system may actually bear watching...and plus the fact it appears (at least according to the models) that it will move through here rather quickly means it could pack a good punch. Needless to say Sunday I'm prepared to not be able to watch all of the NFL conference championship games in anticipation of the Memphis TV stations going to wall-to-wall SVR coverage  and of course that all depends on timing as well.

LOL...that would be funny. As long ago and as young as I was...I'll never forget the horrific fury aimed at WREG when they interrupted the AFC championship on 1/17/99...even after the events in Jackson (the F4) and elsewhere.

[Bigm33]

LOL...that would be funny. As long ago and as young as I was...I'll never forget the horrific fury aimed at WREG when they interrupted the AFC championship on 1/17/99...even after the events in Jackson (the F4) and elsewhere.

Well as a Cowboys fan.......truth be told I would rather be watching SVR coverage!

[StormNine]

Does anyone have coverage archive from the Jan 1999 events.  That would be interesting to see if anyone has the coverage.