Severe Outbreak 1/22-23

[WinterHW]

Long range models and ensembles have so far been consistant with a Severe weather outbreak around this time period. Any thoughts?

[Matthew]

I am going to hold off any judgment calls until later this week. As we have seen this winter so far.  The models are just not reliable more than a few days out.  The models here lately are backing off the very warm temps.  More cooler weather which would temper the severe wx.  This is just my opinion.  Severe wx in Jan. is a possibilty that is for sure with the warm temps the models have been showing.  That is if they come to fruitation.

[stephens]

I think MS and AL may have some thunder bumpers then

[Curt]

Still a week away and severe weather is way to hard to predict at that point. I will take a closer look in a few days. The possibility is there but am not overly excited about the chances at this point.

[jmundie]

There is definitely some support for a big storm in the center of the country in that time frame. Looks like a big cut off, and possibly a midwestern blizzard.

We've yet to get a good negative tilt lakes cutter this year, likely because of the positive NAO.

I'm thinking our warm up and big east coast ridge could lead to a big outbreak, and possibly a return to winter. We'll see.

[WinterHW]

Still a week away and severe weather is way to hard to predict at that point. I will take a closer look in a few days. The possibility is there but am not overly excited about the chances at this point.

Agreed, just seems to be the first thing in a while that has been at least somewhat consistant in more than one model.

[tsmith7101]

will be interesting..

I wonder if Feb is gonna go torch like some have predicted? If so, this may be a prelude

[jmundie]

will be interesting..

I wonder if Feb is gonna go torch like some have predicted? If so, this may be a prelude

You certainly don't want a straight up torch for severe... there has to be some amplification to the jet stream, and you need competing air masses.

Interestingly enough, some similarities between current modeling in this timeframe and Super Tuesday outbreak.

Super Tuesday


GFS next week

[Kevin]

You certainly don't want a straight up torch for severe... there has to be some amplification to the jet stream, and you need competing air masses.

Interestingly enough, some similarities between current modeling in this timeframe and Super Tuesday outbreak.

Super Tuesday


GFS next week

Honestly...I don't see much comparison there. Most importantly...SLP near KPAH vs SLP near Candian border is going to make a massive difference in terms of storm type and strength. The GFS solution would probably be nothing more than a fast moving squall line...that may not even be severe.

[Eric]

Honestly...I don't see much comparison there. Most importantly...SLP near KPAH vs SLP near Candian border is going to make a massive difference in terms of storm type and strength. The GFS solution would probably be nothing more than a fast moving squall line...that may not even be severe.

Agreed...if the GooFuS verified, there would be way too much linear forcing, plus the Mid-South would be too far away from the upper level support...of course, it's still over 170+ hours out AND the GFS has shown on several runs now some form of an upper-level disturbance following a favorable path that traditionally gives parts of the Deep South severe weather. 

Thermodynamically, I don't believe temps will be a problem...it's gonna be moisture.  While 60F dew points are progged to invade the area, the richer moisture stays down south.  If I had to guess on who sees what, this could be another I-20 show, depending on the SLP placement.

All this could change, though, with subsequent model runs...definitely something worth watching (at least for me...  ).

[Eric]

18z GooFuS is about as impressive a winter synoptic setup for severe weather as I think I've seen.  Very impressive.....but too early to get into specifics, plus it's only one run - and an off-run at that.

[Curt]

Hard to believe we are coming up on 4th anniversary of Super Tuesday Outbreak. All of the primaries reminded me today of how quick time passes by.

[Charles L.]

Hard to believe we are coming up on 4th anniversary of Super Tuesday Outbreak. All of the primaries reminded me today of how quick time passes by.

The treeline, as you come into Lafayette on HWY 52, is still shreaded to pieces...you can still tell where that tornado came through that night.

[Curt]

The treeline, as you come into Lafayette on HWY 52, is still shreaded to pieces...you can still tell where that tornado came through that night.

Exit 74 on I-40 in Jackson still bears significant tree damage, even 4 years later and despite lots of clearing.

[Eric]

12z GFS continues to look very ominous for Tuesday.  It's still too early to get into specifics on which area(s) will feel the brunt, but my confidence is ever-so-slowly increasing that there could very well be a severe weather episode across Dixie Alley.  With that being said, there are a few items that are tempering my concern...1) while the GFS has shown the trough on 4-5 consecutive runs now, the trough axis has been in a slightly different geographic position on virtually each run.  That will have implications on where the greatest threat area is realized.  2)...Until the Euro comes onboard and gives us some semblance of model consistency, it's going to be difficult to pin the synoptic placement of the players involved.  Right now, the Euro is having a really difficult time figuring out what to do with the energy coming out of the Rockies that looks to feed this system.  It continues to hold true to its bias of holding the energy back to the SW.  3)...If this threat materializes, it's more than likely going to be a high-shear, low-instability event.  If this is the case, the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere is going to be crucial in how this system develops.  It is bothersome, though, that on each successive model run, the dew points across the warm sector has increased.  4)...We're still over 150+ hours out from this system impacting the area.  There are still numerous factors that need to be determined, especially since the system is still a day or three away from being sampled by the models.

I think patience is the word of the hour.  On paper, this is the most impressive a synoptic setup that I've ever seen in January....but I think's it's prudent - at least at this point - to sit back and see how the data plays out during the next 48-72 hours.