12/7-8/11 System (Possible Snow)

[Kevin]

Continue discussion of the possible storm system later in the week here...

[John1122]

Thanks for starting the thread Kevin.

The 12z Euro also shows what appears to be several frames of snowfall between 57-63hrs. Looks like about 1-3 inches from about Nashville Eastward on there to me.

[jmundie]

Kevin -

What would consitute a cold air source for you?

I mean, we aren't tapping the polar jet, which is stuck up in canada, but everything I'm seeing shows it pulling from the remnants of the cold that's currently in the plains. Its moderated a bit, but still cold enough to support snow, at least at 850 and 925.

[EastTnStormTeam]

Im really blown away by this. James Spann was showing the Euro and GFS and both are showing snow. This System Bears watching.  I will tell you one thing that has me spooked is that my company and most media outlets in Knoxville went low 60's for X temps today. at appox Noon EST today the temps soared and blew all of our forecasts as it reached into the low to mid 70's, also the winds have picked up stronger that what the models were indicating.

[Kevin]

Kevin -

What would consitute a cold air source for you?

I mean, we aren't tapping the polar jet, which is stuck up in canada, but everything I'm seeing shows it pulling from the remnants of the cold that's currently in the plains. Its moderated a bit, but still cold enough to support snow, at least at 850 and 925.

It was a joke. Good grief people. Not surprising people are twisting my words the way they want though...

I thought adding the fact that I haven't looked at any data would give away I wasn't speaking factually...

[jmundie]

It was a joke. Good grief people. Not surprising people are twisting my words the way they want though...

I thought adding the fact that I haven't looked at any data would give away I wasn't speaking factually...

My bad - Reading too fast I guess.

Didn't you say that earlier in the thread? Like when this was first mentioned?

BTW - Euro does show snow falling starting Wed AM from I65 to the east. Mountains get a good 6 inches, this is from the snowfall Euro maps on Weather Underground.

[Kevin]

My bad - Reading too fast I guess.

Didn't you say that earlier in the thread? Like when this was first mentioned?

BTW - Euro does show snow falling starting Wed AM from I65 to the east. Mountains get a good 6 inches, this is from the snowfall Euro maps on Weather Underground.

Yes I did. And based on what I saw yesterday...that was true. Today...I couldn't tell you...it may well have changed.

[EastTnStormTeam]

Whats your thoughts on this actually verifying? I kinda have my doubts about this. As that the NAO is positive right now.

[maryvillereb2003]

MRX has added 60% pops for rain/snow wed night for my area

[Eric]

Well...18z NAM shows a stronger H5 low with a semi-closed circulation at hour 57 over Jackson...but the increased strength isn't really reflected on the surface progs (i.e. looks like there should be a bit more precip).   

Looking at the progged skew-Ts for mid TN, they don't look "snowy" until hour 57, but by then, as stated above, given the lack of lingering precip, folks west of the Plateau are looking at a flizzard.

[Adam]

Well...18z NAM shows a stronger H5 low with a semi-closed circulation at hour 57 over Jackson...but the increased strength isn't really reflected on the surface progs (i.e. looks like there should be a bit more precip).   

Looking at the progged skew-Ts for mid TN, they don't look "snowy" until hour 57, but by then, as stated above, given the lack of lingering precip, folks west of the Plateau are looking at a flizzard.

Well the models do have trouble with modeling precip with the ULL's sometime.

[tennessee storm09]

the 18z nam is even showing a flizzard for parts of west tn.

[Eric]

the 18z nam is even showing a flizzard for parts of west tn.

Not.....hardly...... 

[EastTnStormTeam]

What are you all referring to as a Flizzard? Flurries + Blizzard?

[Thundersnow]

What are you all referring to as a Flizzard? Flurries + Blizzard?

Just an informal name for a vigorous round of flurries that lasts a while but doesn't amount to much.