11/28-29 Snow Event

[Adam]

I'll take the 12z GFS all day long and twice on Sundays.

The ULL sets up right over Tennessee. If this were January I would be licking my chops.

[maryvillereb2003]

if i get any snow from this at all ill be a happy turkey

[Adam]

It is going to take some very dynamic heavy snow to stick for us around middle tennessee. The mountains could do very nicely though.

[Kevin]

Glad to see MEG continuing to play conservative on this...low (20/30) POPs and mixed precip type. All models have the large ULL but GFS is the big outlier in where it places the trowal region...most others put it in the OH Valley...

[Curt]

The ULL sets up right over Tennessee. If this were January I would be licking my chops.

You'd be licking your chops if the Nov 1950 storm were to take place again (which I dont think this will be).

However, I have seen snow/ice stick in November on one occasion in 1976 with fairly marginal temps. I wouldnt rule out at this point that someone gets a grass accumulation with this despite temps that are fairly marginal. I do expect that modeling will change over the next few days as well.

[maryvillereb2003]

18z looking hot as ****(literally)

[Curt]

We will have to see if the GooFuS is on to something with the cutoff low now in Lousiana for 3 days. That is vastly different that all other solutions of the GFS and others as well. Get ready, its just the beginning of many changes to come. Either way, it will be wet and cool for a few days after t-giving, especially west.

[Flash]

Isn't the 18z run typically the one of the four that is the most off?

[Kevin]

Isn't the 18z run typically the one of the four that is the most off?

Sure...but its not like its an unreasonable solution. Cut off ULL could go about literally anywhere.

[Nashville_wx]

Model support Yes, Climo No.To even guess where the ULL will be is crazy. Every solution for the next several days will be different. Good to finally see something on the map.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

To even guess where the ULL will be is crazy. Every solution for the next several days will be different. Good to finally see something on the map.

Yep...all the talk about accumulation, precip type or any other small scale detail is purely 100% speculation at this point in the game....The blended solution that makes sense right now is what HPC shows with the ULL closing off near West TN




Here is HPC's discussion for those interested

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
103 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011
 
VALID 12Z FRI NOV 25 2011 - 12Z TUE NOV 29 2011
 

RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT AS A COLD GLFAK VORTEX
SETTLES IN THAT PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST
AS MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROF INSTEAD OF THE PRIOR WEEKS OF NERN
PACFIC SHORTWAVES THAT SLID DOWN THE WEST COAST AND ROTATED
INLAND. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE TO VARYING DEGREES INDICATES A
BUILDING EPAC/WEST COAST RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS ADDITIONAL NRN STREAM
ENERGY TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
COMING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE PAC TROF INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVOLVE INTO A DEEP MID LEVEL TROF AS IT CLEAR THE ROCKIES AND
STRONGLY SHARPENS IN THE MS VALLEY. BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS GFS/CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF HAVE AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CUTTING OFF OF THE TROF INTO A VERY
SIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS SERIES HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST ERRATIC WITH THIS
EVOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN. ENSEMBLES OF GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THIS SYSTEM WHICH ADDS TO THE
UNCERTAINTY BUT WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS
INDICATING AN ANOMALOUS SOLUTION AND HEAVIER WEIGHTING TOWARDS
THAT TREND NEEDS TO BE ADDED. MINI MODEL ENSEMBLE/LAGGED AVERAGE
FORECAST OF GFS/ECMWF INDICATES A CLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL
CENTER IN THE CENTRAL MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 7
SUN/TUES. MODELS USUALLY HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF AND MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF CUTOFF LOWS AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOWERED BY DAYS 6 AND 7 MON/TUES. HPC UPDATED MORNING PROG
BLEND USES A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL 00Z CMC/GFS/ECMWF.

12Z GFS CONSISTENT WITH ITS IDEA OF A STRONG CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW
MID/LATE PERIOD. LATEST 12 CMC IS FASTER TAKING OUT THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND CLOSED LOW INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY DAY 6 MON WHILE
AWAITING ANOTHER STRONG DIGGING TROF DAY 7 TUES AS DOES THE GFS.
12Z UKMET IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FULL LATUITDE DEEP AND
SHARP TROF INTO THE APPLCHNS DAY 6. NOGAPS CONSISTENT WITH ITS MID
LEVEL CUTOFF
IN/OH DAY 7 TUES. EACH MODEL RUN UNTIL MUCH CLOSER IN WILL OFFER A
DIFFERENT LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER AND DETAILS. SINCE THE
PRIOR HPC BLEND WAS MULTI MODELED SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS
TIME FOR AFTN FINALS.

FAIR AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF COMING INTO THE PAC
NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES LATE SUN AND MON. ECMWF IS QUITE STRONG
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUES
WITH ITS ENS MEAN AND CMC MUCH MORE DAMPENED AND NON EXISTENT IN
THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS IS ALSO SUPRESSED BY THE HPC BLEND.

SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS NWRN MEXICO INTO
NM/TX AND OK FRI WHILE NRN STREAM ENERGY WILL KEEP THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES WET. SHARPENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROF AS
PHASING OCCURS WILL BACK THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND ALLOW DEEP GULF
MOISTURE AND HVY PCPN TO SURGE NWD THRU EAST TX/OK/AR/MO AND UP
WELL NORTH INTO THE MS VALLEY SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE APPLCHNS MON AND INTO THE MID ATLC COASTAL PLAIN
AND NORTHEAST BY TUES. COLD RAIN UNDER THE MID LEVEL CENTER IN THE
OH VALLEY/APPLCHNS WITH MID/LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR HIGHER AND EVEN LOWER ELEV SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND
SRN APPCHNS/UPPER OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IN THE MS VALLEY AND
PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EASTWARD ALONG THE SLOW MOVING
NEGATIVELY TILTED FRONT FROM THE SRN APPCHNS INTO PA. MDT TO
LOCALLY RAINS POSSIBLY UP ALONG THE ATLC SEABOARD AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS FROM GA INTO NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUES.
LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE H500 MID LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH
ACCOMPANYING H850 COLD POOL MAY BECOME VERY CRITICAL ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPLCHNS.  
ROSENSTEIN       

This could be a big deal somewhere...but where is still to be determined

[ams30721us]

If you don't like to talk about snowflakes I advise not looking at any 18z DGEX maps...haha

[Nashville_wx]

I saw it earlier, pretty sweet, but its wrapped in sour till 2 days out....

[Cyclonicjunkie]

If you don't like to talk about snowflakes I advise not looking at any 18z DGEX maps...haha

Now you know someone will want to see it 



 

[ams30721us]

I saw it earlier, pretty sweet, but its wrapped in sour till 2 days out....

Haha yea I would def. not take the opened gift just yet at all. In fact most times the DGEX is beyond an extreme solution on any system!  Ha but always good model watching fun to glance to me!