november severe?

[tennessee storm09]

well folks we are going into november which is our prime severe weather month for the midsouth area. i know folks are ready for cold n snow but i see some problems down the road in november for some severe threats. gfs has been consistent with a system after first week in november and now the euro is getting into the range and pickin up on it also, its just beyond the trauny period so lets see what happens. but looking at the models the 500 mb jet energy looks favorable for a nice threat with plenty of shear. but im keeping an eye on the pacific were it looks like most of our air is coming in from besides canada. so pattern to me looks zonal pretty much going into novemeber. perhaps that system after the first week in novemeber will be our pattern changer we will see. but for now get prepared for perhaps a rocky november my friends.

[tennessee storm09]

well folks we are going into november which is our prime severe weather month for the midsouth area. i know folks are ready for cold n snow but i see some problems down the road in november for some severe threats. gfs has been consistent with a system after first week in november and now the euro is getting into the range and pickin up on it also, its just beyond the trauny period so lets see what happens. but looking at the models the 500 mb jet energy looks favorable for a nice threat with plenty of shear. but im keeping an eye on the pacific were it looks like most of our air is coming in from besides canada. so pattern to me looks zonal pretty much going into novemeber. perhaps that system after the first week in novemeber will be our pattern changer we will see. but for now get prepared for perhaps a rocky november my friends.

i meant we are heading into our prime time for fall severe weather. i had one to many rebulls i guess before i worked out.

[cd2play]

It could be the pattern remains zonal for most of November then cold weather pattern returns around Thanksgiving. 

[Eric]

well folks we are going into november which is our prime severe weather month for the midsouth area. i know folks are ready for cold n snow but i see some problems down the road in november for some severe threats. gfs has been consistent with a system after first week in november and now the euro is getting into the range and pickin up on it also, its just beyond the trauny period so lets see what happens. but looking at the models the 500 mb jet energy looks favorable for a nice threat with plenty of shear. but im keeping an eye on the pacific were it looks like most of our air is coming in from besides canada. so pattern to me looks zonal pretty much going into novemeber. perhaps that system after the first week in novemeber will be our pattern changer we will see. but for now get prepared for perhaps a rocky november my friends.

What time frame are you looking at?  If it's around the 6th, the shortwave is too far northwest and the upper level support stays well away from the state.  If it's after that, it's after the model truncation...we all know what that means.

[tennessee storm09]

What time frame are you looking at?  If it's around the 6th, the shortwave is too far northwest and the upper level support stays well away from the state.  If it's after that, it's after the model truncation...we all know what that means.

yeah eric its just beyond the truncation period at 228. course your correct, here today gone tomorrow. but i do like how the energy is modeled coming off the pacific west coast. thanks eric for not flamming me for starting this thread but i think november gets pretty active.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

As you know i'm not a severe guy but speaking in climo and synoptics...I would expect a powerful system that lays down some severe right before it changes the pattern to a more winter like climate.... The timeframe in the middle of the month seems like the best bet to me...as the teleconnections switch-up around this period....steep changes in the teles are the kind of signal you look for to produce a big pattern changing storm.

[Eric]

I think we're on this side of model truncation (6z GFS hour 180-192)...and the shortwave looks marginally interesting.  The 0z Euro is seeing something, too, as Bruce alluded to.  Right now, progged thermodynamic profiles look good, as do the kinematics.  If the shortwave deepens/closes off, the possibilities of organized severe weather will increase for the ArkLaTex, across Dixie Alley and up into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.  Again, we're way off from a final solution, but this is the first system that's been progged on THIS side of truncation that's nice eye-candy.

[cd2play]

Accuweather.com is really concerned about the potential for severe weather next week consuming a wide area.  Even tornado possiblities, if things develop like they're afraid they might.  I hope this don't mean the possibility of another mega tornadic outbreak like last April.  Surely it won't be that magnitude, hopefully.?

[John1122]

Just playing the odds, it's unlikely that an outbreak of that magnitude ever occurs again in any of our lifetimes.

That doesn't mean one couldn't occur next week, but it's extremely unlikely.

That said, just keep reading here, there are lots of severe weather folk here who are very good at keeping track of these things.

[Eric]

Accuweather.com is really concerned about the potential for severe weather next week consuming a wide area.  Even tornado possiblities, if things develop like they're afraid they might.  I hope this don't mean the possibility of another mega tornadic outbreak like last April.  Surely it won't be that magnitude, hopefully.?

Let the hype machine begin.  The 6z models from yesterday morning painted an "interesting" picture, but since then all I've seen is a bunch of poop.  I'd like to see what they see..............link?

EDIT:  I just did a quick, cursory glance at a few 12z GFS maps, and IF the event evolves like it's progged to, the ArkLaTex COULD be under the gun.  But with the surface/upper lows migrating south of TN, all we'd see is a boatload of rain.  Now, if the upper level low decided to swing further northwest, then the tune would change, but right now, my opinion is Accuweather has spun up the hype machine and no severe weather for TN, or points north of the TN Valley.   

[John1122]

Here is the link. The story isn't terribly hyped up. Just deals with a lot of possible what if type scenairos.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/57232/south-severe-weather-outbreak.asp

This headline on the story is probably the most hype in it, but no doubt it's to get more people to click the link.

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Next Week
News - Nov 2, 2011; 1:50 PM ET

Here's a heads-up on a possible dangerous severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes, for the southern Plains to the Southeast states next week.

[Eric]

Here is the link. The story isn't terribly hyped up. Just deals with a lot of possible what if type scenairos.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/57232/south-severe-weather-outbreak.asp

This headline on the story is probably the most hype in it, but no doubt it's to get more people to click the link.

I've been watching the models - GFS in particular - hit on the ULL and then lose it.  Today's 12z is the first run of the GFS to have a favorable setup since the 6z yesterday.  I don't care if I was getting 3 for the price of 1, I still wouldn't buy what Accuwx is selling.

[tsmith7101]

Eric, what hour we launching from on this?

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[Eric]

Eric, what hour we launching from on this?

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On the 12z runs, hours 168-192.

[tsmith7101]

Thanks buddy

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