Long range thread

[Cyclonicjunkie]

lol..what is that a fumble.. Mundie?

The 0z euro is developing a coastal system along the front...looks like a decent little snow for October in the southern Appalachians and upper east TN if it verifies.

Hr168 Snowfall


Hr174 Snowfall

[tsmith7101]

Is the PNA positive or negative right now? 

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Is the PNA positive or negative right now?

Its slightly positive right now

[Kevin]

So...Wunderground has not only maintained free ECMWF data...but they've now added snowfall? Do they know what they're getting into...do they want their site down all winter long?

[jmundie]

lol..what is that a fumble.. Mundie?

No.... please tell me you watched Charlie Brown as a kid.... Lucy says she's going to hold the football for Charlie Brown to kick, everytime, she pulls it away at the last second right as CB is kicking and he flies through the air. She always convinces him its not a tease, CB goes all in, and looks like a buffoon.

The long range GFS is Lucy... and we are Charlie Brown.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

No.... please tell me you watched Charlie Brown as a kid.... Lucy says she's going to hold the football for Charlie Brown to kick, everytime, she pulls it away at the last second right as CB is kicking and he flies through the air. She always convinces him its not a tease, CB goes all in, and looks like a buffoon.

The long range GFS is Lucy... and we are Charlie Brown.

I watched it but not much... I dont remember it though... but that is a accurate portrayal of how the gfs can tease us alot...Im pretty guilty for falling for its tricks from time to time.

[tennessee storm09]

WOW even meg is now hinting at some wet snow possible late thursday night in some areas with a passing upper low. i think its time to give TOOT his props. he said something about snow over a week ago and alot of people were doubting him. saying alot if meg   is hinting at it. and this is west tn not in the mountain areas of east tn.

[jmundie]

WOW even meg is now hinting at some wet snow possible late thursday night in some areas with a passing upper low. i think its time to give TOOT his props. he said something about snow over a week ago and alot of people were doubting him. saying alot if meg   is hinting at it. and this is west tn not in the mountain areas of east tn.

Link? Quote?

[Adam]

Here you go Mundie.

IN FACT...LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES SUB 540 DAM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THEN IT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE THAT SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OBVIOUSLY THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY
CONSIDERING THAT WE ARE STILL IN LATE OCTOBER. REGARDLESS...SOMETHING
INTERESTING TO WATCH AND EITHER WAY IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
WINTER THAN MID FALL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Im still sort of shocked that we have entered into this winter pattern this early with shot after shot of artic air and then storms riding the boundaries of this artic air. I expected an early start but not this intense. The 0Z Euro and 6gfs both have a powerful Apps Runner the euro takes a more snow friendly track for most of TN

It slams middle TN if u take it verbatim but these snowfall graphics cannot be taken verbatim....the ground temps are really warm still and I would just use these snowfall graphics as a hint to where snow could possibly fly. It would really have to put it down to accumulate anything substancial this early in the season...with that said here is the 0z euro Hr156 Snowfall at about 6 days out.



I still dont have a clue as to what's going to happen during this timeframe.. as the models are all over the place and rightfully so...you have two different pieces of energy mingling with a possible tropical system and to top all that off the cold air tries to work its way into this situation...it's very complex and the models are probably a little closer but are still handling some aspects wrong.

I cant wait to get some sampled data ...but it looks like a big storm is going to effect the eastern US in some way.

[Adam]

Im still sort of shocked that we have entered into this winter pattern this early with shot after shot of artic air and then storms riding the boundaries of this artic air. I expected an early start but not this intense. The 0Z Euro and 6gfs both have a powerful Apps Runner the euro takes a more snow friendly track for most of TN

It slams middle TN if u take it verbatim but these snowfall graphics cannot be taken verbatim....the ground temps are really warm still and I would just use these snowfall graphics as a hint to where snow could possibly fly. It would really have to put it down to accumulate anything substancial this early in the season...with that said here is the 0z euro Hr156 Snowfall at about 6 days out.



I still dont have a clue as to what's going to happen during this timeframe.. as the models are all over the place and rightfully so...you have two different pieces of energy mingling with a possible tropical system and to top all that off the cold air tries to work its way into this situation...it's very complex and the models are probably a little closer but are still handling some aspects wrong.

I cant wait to get some sampled data ...but it looks like a big storm is going to effect the eastern US in some way.

It is looking like some non-elevaiton snow in the midwest anyways.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

It is looking like some non-elevaiton snow in the midwest anyways.

Yep possibly even into the TX panhandle.

We're still 6 days out but at this point it looks like the Appalachians are going to get hammered if this rapidly deepens like alot of the models are now showing. This looks like it will turn into a major Noreaster at this point and somebody else besides the higher elevations will probably get an early season surprise/treat.

With the leaves still on most of the trees in the Apps there will be the threat of downed trees and broken limbs in the higher elevations as modeled right now. There will be some changes of how this plays out... so none of this is set in stone just yet... but the first major storm of the season is looking more likely now in the eastern U.S

[Nashville_wx]

You better believe I will be hiking up LeConte if this comes to be true. Last year I went for the first early season snowfall, which was pretty good... 11" base atop the cabins on top of LeConte.... 4500ft and up things change pretty quickly esp in good upslope regions.

[Woodvegas]

Well it looks like I'm gonna have to renew my Accuweather Pro subscription a little early this year. This is a quote from FoothillsNC (a met I respect at Americanwx) that he posted this morning....

The ECMWF is painting an historic storm across the Midsouth next Thursday into Friday. The Op GFS is warmer and further to the east, but still a very big deal. As I said a few days ago, I don't think the models are going to get the exact locations right for any ampflication in such a long wavelength/Zonal flow type pattern, but that there would be a snapping of the rubberband at some point, and right now they favor it happening in the Southeast or Tenn Valley or East Coast. Its something to watch, and something major will probably happen, but the models will probably continue to flip around a couple more runs. It could be the Euro is right and we have a strong neutral tilt wave come very far south toward the western Gulf states before really bombing out, which would place areas on the north and west sides under a rare, heavy synoptic snowstorm. No matter what, if the s/w does amplify strongly it should have access to pretty cold (cold enough) air, and a nighttime storm in the Tenn. Valley, like where the ECMWF has it for Nashville/Huntsville, would be extremely unusual for such a deep storm, crashing heights and heavy falling snow during the nighttime hours esp. Definitely fun to see that both models have such a strong storm in late October, but the odds are a little more north and west right now, or a little more east toward the Appalachians to MidAtlantic and Northeast for the snow. Its still really early though and we keep getting a general pattern of deep eastern or Ohio Valley troughs.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/26706-october-obs/page__st__580

LOL, we may have to start a pre-Halloween winter storm thread.

[Eric]

Whatever ends up happening, that's a mighty strong storm that being progged on the ole GooFuS this morning...don't think I've ever seen a stacked closed low this late in the season.