Long range thread

[Cyclonicjunkie]

GFS Ensemb mean valid for OCT 27th has a deep trough spilling all the way to the gulf coast....due to the PV dumping into the eastern US.



This is also supported by the PNA AO and NAO...lets see what happens


That a pretty fair amount of support for at least some cold weather
if  we have a system that taps into this cold air it could get exciting.

[tennessee storm09]

that trough there means buisness toot, on that graph

[jmundie]

GFS really wanting to build the cold up in Canada by the end of these runs. Lots of pockets of -20 surface temps.

I doubt we get a snowstorm on Halloween (though it does appear New England could get one) but certainly winter type temps are on the way. Wouldn't be too surprised if we got some snow by Thanksgiving.

[snowdog]

Yeah I noticed the same thing this morning when looking at last nights model runs. Unusual to have such a deep surge of cold air this time of year.  That is a pretty mean looking trough.  Here is a pic of this mornings 6z GFS run so people can see what Mundie was talking about.  Notice the abundant -10 temps along with some pink -20 temps showing up. 

[Eric]

GFS really wanting to build the cold up in Canada by the end of these runs. Lots of pockets of -20 surface temps.

I doubt we get a snowstorm on Halloween (though it does appear New England could get one) but certainly winter type temps are on the way. Wouldn't be too surprised if we got some snow by Thanksgiving.

That I'll buy.

[jmundie]

Yeah I noticed the same thing this morning when looking at last nights model runs. Unusual to have such a deep surge of cold air this time of year.  That is a pretty mean looking trough.  Here is a pic of this mornings 6z GFS run so people can see what Mundie was talking about.  Notice the abundant -10 temps along with some pink -20 temps showing up. 

That is the 850 temps... doesn't quite translate to the surface exactly that way but its a start.

I think it was 6z this morning, there was a sizable pocket of -20 SURFACE temps in the yukon. If we can keep a decent PV in eastern canada, with cold temp and snowcover up in siberia and in nw Canada, move that western ridge axis right over the west coast, and that cold air will pour down into texas and arkansas.

Thing is about tennesee (western and middle really) we need the deepest point of the trough to fall south from the plains down toward louisiana. Otherwise we get east coast storms, and cold and dry in tennessee with the occasional upslope event. When the jet is moving due south right at memphis, it suppresses any lows trying to move from the southern jet and they generally form beyond florida.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Here is a pic of this mornings 6z GFS run so people can see what Mundie was talking about.  Notice the abundant -10 temps along with some pink -20 temps showing up. 

I never noticed negative 850's on those psu maps before...Im going to have to get my eyes checked...I always thought the 0 line was as cold as it showed for some reason

[dwagner88]

I couldn't help but notice that the GFS has highs in the upper 30s and lows in the low 20s right before Halloween. I'll be taking that with a huge grain of salt for the time being.

[John1122]

Heck, yesterday it had snow down in North Florida during that timeframe.

About all it's good for at that range other than entertainment is possibly looking at the general pattern of where troughs and ridges might be positioned. Even with that, it's not exactly right most of the time.

[tennessee storm09]

I couldn't help but notice that the GFS has highs in the upper 30s and lows in the low 20s right before Halloween. I'll be taking that with a huge grain of salt for the time being.

i just took a look at the 12z euro, it also is quite impressvive for this time frame, course lets see if it holds

[Cyclonicjunkie]

i just took a look at the 12z euro, it also is quite impressvive for this time frame, course lets see if it holds

So are the ensembles

[snowdog]

18z GFS today says hello winter 2011/2012.  Even has a little flurry action.  Possibly even a flizzard. 

[maryvillereb2003]

18z GFS today says hello winter 2011/2012.  Even has a little flurry action.  Possibly even a flizzard.

this is true. 0z running now  lol

[snowdog]

00z GFS says game on.  06z GFS, 00z Euro and Canadian say not so fast my friend. 

[snowdog]

12z GFS and 12z Euro seem to differ quite a bit on the magnitude of the cold air.