Sept. 25 SLGT Risk, ArkLaTex/West TN

[Curt]

This is the 4th lone supercell with a hook echo to hit the city in less than 18 months. I fear that the "Joplin Effect" may become prevalent and give people a false sense of security.

Looking at some data from years past, 2 EF-4 tornadoes hit Shelby County on the same day April 29, 1909. In its 125 mile path, it killed well over 100 people, mostly in the Memphis metro. If the same scenario were to take place today, the tornadoes would hit highly popluated areas vs. 1909. Even given advanced warning, the potential for a much higher toll is there. I worry that eventually, something like this will happen and people will be calloused to reality.

[StormNine]

EF-2 Tornado in White Plains KY(Hopkins County).  It wasn't the same storm that triggered the Tornado Warning to the south. 

[beneficii]

This is the 4th lone supercell with a hook echo to hit the city in less than 18 months. I fear that the "Joplin Effect" may become prevalent and give people a false sense of security.

And it was the 3rd in 5 months.  That's just amazing.  Wow.

Looking at some data from years past, 2 EF-4 tornadoes hit Shelby County on the same day April 29, 1909. In its 125 mile path, it killed well over 100 people, mostly in the Memphis metro. If the same scenario were to take place today, the tornadoes would hit highly popluated areas vs. 1909. Even given advanced warning, the potential for a much higher toll is there. I worry that eventually, something like this will happen and people will be calloused to reality.

That would be a nightmare.  Such an event could come later this year, it could come during the spring or winter next year, or it may not come for years, but I really hope that we would be prepared for it.

[bugalou]

This is the 4th lone supercell with a hook echo to hit the city in less than 18 months. I fear that the "Joplin Effect" may become prevalent and give people a false sense of security.

Looking at some data from years past, 2 EF-4 tornadoes hit Shelby County on the same day April 29, 1909. In its 125 mile path, it killed well over 100 people, mostly in the Memphis metro. If the same scenario were to take place today, the tornadoes would hit highly popluated areas vs. 1909. Even given advanced warning, the potential for a much higher toll is there. I worry that eventually, something like this will happen and people will be calloused to reality.

I was thinking this earlier.  I fear it is way past that at this point though.  Let's look at the first cell in this series you speak of in 2010 as I recall.  This was the first, and was a well defined supercell with a nice hook echo and a little rotation headed straight towards downtown Memphis during Musicfest during Memphis in May.  While there were evacuations, they did not come nearly fast enough especially considering a lot of the people there probably had a few.  Had that cell produced, we would be talking hundreds of deaths.  And that was the first of these close calls.  The 3 additional close calls only thickened the callus people have for these warnings.  This is no fault of MEG either, these were all legitimate threats that were just a few small parameters (LCLs, mesoscale features, etc) off from producing tornados.  I can't say there is an answer to this.  It will likely take a tornado on the ground going through metro to wake people up, as much as it pains me to say that.

On a related note, the NWS should really invest in installing internet accessible cameras on more radio towers, cell towers, and tall buildings in hot-bed tornado areas.  People seem to take the warnings much more serious when they have a live video to watch.  This seems like it can be done fairly inexpensively, and they maybe able to partner with cell providers to get tower access and a data pipe in exchange for the provider being able to tout this as "ATT - partnering with the NWS to save lives and help our community" or something along those lines.

[Curt]

Ooops I need to make a correction about the 2 1909 tornadoes. There were well above 100 injuries, but the first killed 8, while the second killed 29, mostly in the metro Memphis area. The first tornado travelled through north central Shelby County,  and was actually an EF-3. The second was an E-4 and travelled from Desoto County (present day Southaven and Olive Branch) through SE Shelby, directly through Collierville into Fayette Co. You can bet the death toll would be much higher today given the dense popluation growth these areas have seen over the years. The second tornado was the longest track tornado in state history. It was solidly on the ground for 125 miles, lifting and touching back down again through both Memphis and Nashville. The cell finally met its demise in Scott County. WOW at the conditions it takes to get something like that!

[tsmith7101]

Joplin definately was a lone Supercell, Were there any others this year?

I admit Joplin and then spring severe event in Bama were the only ones I know anything about or kept up with...

[Eric]

Joplin definately was a lone Supercell, Were there any others this year?

I admit Joplin and then spring severe event in Bama were the only ones I know anything about or kept up with...

Curious as to what you mean by "lone supercell"..... 

[tsmith7101]

Curious as to what you mean by "lone supercell"..... 

I was meaning not a sustained outbreak but more of an isolated event

[Thundersnow]

I was meaning not a sustained outbreak but more of an isolated event

Actually, it was part of an extensive outbreak that occurred over several days across the Midwest.

5/22/2011 Storm Reports (the day of the Joplin tornado) - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110522_rpts.html

May 21-26 2011 Outbreak Sequence - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_21%E2%80%9326,_2011_tornado_outbreak_sequence

[tsmith7101]

Actually, it was part of an extensive outbreak that occurred over several days across the Midwest.

5/22/2011 Storm Reports (the day of the Joplin tornado) - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110522_rpts.html

May 21-26 2011 Outbreak Sequence - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_21%E2%80%9326,_2011_tornado_outbreak_sequence

Thanks I will have to read that ! You guys rock! As always

[Thundersnow]

Thanks I will have to read that ! You guys rock! As always

I think the reason you might have had the impression about Joplin being an isolated event was the catastrophic, historic nature of that event eclipsing anything else that occurred during those few days.  But, there were lots of other tornado and severe storm reports and damage across several states during that outbreak.

Joplin was by far the worst event of the outbreak.  But, it certainly wasn't the only event of the outbreak.

[tsmith7101]

Yeah, I thinking that because of the lone supercell talk, that Joplin was an isolated event. But I do think I remember things we ripe for severe weather in that area. Still amazed people were stating "they did'nt know". That is crazy! People just did'nt heed the warning in enough time. Hope that never happens again but I am afraid it might because of the "cry wolf" syndrome ... Oh well! better safe than sorry. Kudos for everyone who was on top of it before hand even if the general public were not.       

[harlequin]

To be honest I don't always heed warnings. A lot of times if I can tell the tornado-producing part of the storm will not be in my vicinity I don't properly seek shelter. But if I can tell a storm poses a danger to me I do.

Like on Sunday, for example, it was very obvious the rotation was passing well north of me. Despite the sirens I went to eat at Young Avenue Deli.

[bugalou]

To be honest I don't always heed warnings. A lot of times if I can tell the tornado-producing part of the storm will not be in my vicinity I don't properly seek shelter. But if I can tell a storm poses a danger to me I do.

Like on Sunday, for example, it was very obvious the rotation was passing well north of me. Despite the sirens I went to eat at Young Avenue Deli.

You also have a basic concept of how to read radar and the input of all the folks on here.  I am the same way as you with these things.  Most of the general public is not though.

I admit I was one of the idiots outside when the Tornado hit Southaven on Super Tuesday.  I was very scared seeing it so close to my house at the time, but I also wanted to see a Tornado in person.  Probably not a smart decision as the Tornado was only a mile and a half away, but man, what a memory.