Winter analog thread (post your analogs here)

[Cyclonicjunkie]

As of right now I like three analogs in the decade of the 70's (70-71, 73-74, 75-76) and just one analog from the 60's (67-68) 80's,(84-85) and 90's(95-96) and the analog of last winter 2010/11. Im using 7 analogs that favor the -NAO/AO and all but one(84-85) are in cold phases of the PDO.

[tsmith7101]

So I am confused, 

If we are in a weak La Nina, Does'nt that mean a warmer and drier temps during the winter with milder weather? What am I missing? is it Cold canadian air from the NAO/AO? where are we getting moisture for snow if all the air over TEXAS and OK is gonna by dry and warm thanks to the drought? I can see the colder air but not the moisture?      

[Eric]

So I am confused, 

If we are in a weak La Nina, Does'nt that mean a warmer and drier temps during the winter with milder weather? What am I missing? is it Cold canadian air from the NAO/AO? where are we getting moisture for snow if all the air over TEXAS and OK is gonna by dry and warm thanks to the drought? I can see the colder air but not the moisture?   

Remember, analogs are just that....analogs.  There's more to atmospheric weather than teleconnections, like the NAO and AO.  One must factor in synoptic features like ridges, troughs, fronts, upper level winds, etc.  While teleconnections often give a good outline for what COULD happen, they are by no means a certainty.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

What am I missing? is it Cold canadian air from the NAO/AO? where are we getting moisture for snow if all the air over TEXAS and OK is gonna by dry and warm thanks to the drought? I can see the colder air but not the moisture?   

A -NAO/AO will trump the typical La Nina climo as seen in the analogs. Most of our moisture comes from the gulf as low pressure systems are notorious for tapping the moisture from the gulf.

[Eric]

No, did you sleep through last winter?

A -NAO/AO will trump the typical La Nina climo as seen in the analogs. Most of our moisture comes from the gulf as low pressure systems are notorious for tapping the moisture from the gulf.

I've got to believe, though, that until we get a really expansive arctic outbreak, moisture being tapped by the LPs will be warm and that warm air has to go somewhere.  Once the extreme southern areas get below freezing for an extended period of time, then we could see some good gulf tappage, but until those SSTs cool - substantially - it could be well into Jan-Feb before TN sees anything measurable.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I've got to believe, though, that until we get a really expansive arctic outbreak, moisture being tapped by the LPs will be warm and that warm air has to go somewhere.

Moisture tapped from the GOM is warm year round, because of the mechanics of a LPS system. A LPS jerks warm moisture up from the gulf then transfers the moisture into the cold sector (the air mass that is being jerked down from the cold north) thats how you get snow in most LPS's around here. This wont happen until the air masses are pulled down into the SE (via fall troughs). Then as we get close to winter the air mass thats available to LPS's will be cold enough to produce snow in their cold sectors.

Basic Climatology and Synoptics 

I think this will all happen a few weeks earlier than last winter too.

[jmundie]

Now back to the analogs

1984/85

Precip...

Can you say LOTS of Apps Runners and Great Lakes cutters

Serious winter storms set up right along the boundary of cold and warm.

We haven't gotten a good system where an arctic front stalls out and a couple LPS ride up the front in a long time (thinking christmas 2004 might have been the last?)

Toot - hoping your long range forecasting pans out... I hate getting my hopes up in September.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Serious winter storms set up right along the boundary of cold and warm.

We haven't gotten a good system where an arctic front stalls out and a couple LPS ride up the front in a long time (thinking christmas 2004 might have been the last?)

Toot - hoping your long range forecasting pans out... I hate getting my hopes up in September.

Your monster winter storms usually start genesis in the Gulf of Mexico but yeah you can get some doozies riding along stalled boundaries but alot of those end up being ICE storms Mundie

[tennessee storm09]

yeah toot, i hated you thre out the 84 85 analog. but that winter started awful late, matter fact december broke records for highs that year. but it turned out to be pehaps my favorite winter. we had a nice severe weather event that new years eve nite. than after that winter went balls to the wall. snow after snow, and record breaking cold in jan. 85

[Cyclonicjunkie]

yeah toot, i hated you thre out the 84 85 analog. but that winter started awful late, matter fact december broke records for highs that year. but it turned out to be pehaps my favorite winter. we had a nice severe weather event that new years eve nite. than after that winter went balls to the wall. snow after snow, and record breaking cold in jan. 85

I didnt throw 85 out, I think its a good analog because I think west TN will get more snow than east this year.

[Eric]

Moisture tapped from the GOM is warm year round, because of the mechanics of a LPS system. A LPS jerks warm moisture up from the gulf then transfers the moisture into the cold sector (the air mass that is being jerked down from the cold north) thats how you get snow in most LPS's around here. This wont happen until the air masses are pulled down into the SE (via fall troughs). Then as we get close to winter the air mass thats available to LPS's will be cold enough to produce snow in their cold sectors.

Basic Climatology and Synoptics 

I think this will all happen a few weeks earlier than last winter too.

Seriously?  Wow....didn't know that being a meteorology student and all.....

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I wont post anymore analog maps here, because its confusing me and others..I will finish the analogs sometime this week in my spare time and decide which ones I will use and combine them to get a rough Idea of a final outlook.

I wanna wait to see if the NAO goes negative like I think it will towards the end of the month. Then I will make some graphical images to finalize everything. I have already through a couple of analogs out because they were to extreme. If anybody has any years they think im missing please speak up and let me know.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Seriously?  Wow....didn't know that being a meteorology student and all.....

I was sure you did but you threw me off when you said this

I've got to believe, though, that until we get a really expansive arctic outbreak, moisture being tapped by the LPs will be warm

Moisture from the gulf is always warm year round

Boy am I rubbing people the wrong way today