TS Nate (Mexico or US??)

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Models are spinning up another cyclone along the tail end of the front of Lee in the Gulf Of Mexico and the Euro has been consistently bringing to our backyards again.



The GFS takes into central America

[Cyclonicjunkie]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
LOW THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Eric]

Maybe someone with a better understanding of thermodynamics in relation to tropical systems can answer this, but concerning this new wave and Lee's persistent spinning in the upper GoM, does that "scour" the warmer SSTs a la an MCS robbing folks upstream of higher moisture content or are the warmer SSTs rooted deeper than that?

[dwagner88]

I'll be rooting for this to go away from us to Texas. They desperately need the rain there.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Maybe someone with a better understanding of thermodynamics in relation to tropical systems can answer this, but concerning this new wave and Lee's persistent spinning in the upper GoA, does that "scour" the warmer SSTs a la an MCS robbing folks upstream of higher moisture content or are the warmer SSTs rooted deeper than that?

There is upwelling in stronger TC's that turnover the thermocline and get cooler water to the surface, but I doubt Lee did much upwelling accept for maybe right along the coast, and even there it was probably minimal as Lee was a relatively weak cyclone compared to most tropical systems.

[Eric]

There is upwelling in stronger TC's that turnover the thermocline and get cooler water to the surface, but I doubt Lee did much upwelling accept for maybe right along the coast, and even there it was probably minimal as Lee was a relatively weak cyclone compared to most tropical systems.

After seeing Lee spin like a top over the northern gulf, I found myself wondering if there would even be enough "fuel" left for this wave to develop. 

[jmundie]

After seeing Lee spin like a top over the northern gulf, I found myself wondering if there would even be enough "fuel" left for this wave to develop.

I would think the high SST in the gulf go much deeper than in areas of the atlantic due to the gulf being so shallow (comparitively) to the atlantic basin.

[John1122]

Waters around where Lee went ashore are around 80 currently.

Waters outside the area it passed are in the mid to upper 80s.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

12z Euro continues with aiming this towards the SE Gulf coast..



Its an outlier at this point, but it is the euro. Most of the others take it into Mexico/Central America. There isnt much steering going on in the GOM and that makes any synoptic explanation of why it wont go north or why it will relatively hard to pin down.



Anybody care to reason of why this will go where (Assuming it does develop into a TC?)

[John1122]

The GFS is showing a pretty nice trough but I guess it's not extending down far enough to pick this up.

[Eric]

12z Euro continues with aiming this towards the SE Gulf coast..



Its an outlier at this point, but it is the euro. Most of the others take it into Mexico/Central America. There isnt much steering going on in the GOM and that makes any synoptic explanation of why it wont go north or why it will relatively hard to pin down.



Anybody care to reason of why this will go where (Assuming it does develop into a TC?)

Say hello to our old friend, Mr. Coriolis.  I would assume that IF there is no steering mechanism present, 96L would have to fall back on the Coriolis effect, which - absent the presence of said sterring mechanism - would more than likely propel it northwestward, either in northern Mexico or southern TX.  96L is progged (by the GFS) to wobble due westward into central Mexico.  It looks as if the huge Atlantic high will influence 96L to some degree, as well as the progged HP over California, in effect "pulling" it due west.  At this point, it's hard to discount the Euro, though.  It has been the most consistent model of choice this tropical season, but it's solution is a bit wonky.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

The GFS is showing a pretty nice trough but I guess it's not extending down far enough to pick this up.

Yeah, the euro is showing a trough of simular depth that ends up catching this...im not sure why the euro dont follow the rest of the models. At any rate if this ends up coming northward it will have a chance to become much, much stronger than Lee ever had.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

This is up to 60% now with the Euro still holding it's ground. The euro may have had the right idea all along as the CMC and alot of the GFS ensembles have come into agreement with the Euro..The operational GFS is now starting to look like the outlier.

0zCMC

[dwagner88]

So in that image, it looks like Maria makes landfall as a hurricane, and Nate nearing Hispaniola, possibly heading to the East Coast? I'm not usually one to root against interesting weather, but we really need the future Maria to miss us.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

So in that image, it looks like Maria makes landfall as a hurricane, and Nate nearing Hispaniola, possibly heading to the East Coast? I'm not usually one to root against interesting weather, but we really need the future Maria to miss us.

Hard to say which one is Maria and which one is nate, but the tropical system in the gulf is modeled by the CMC and the Euro to make a landfall as a hurricane, but there are some dry air issues to the NW that this system may have to deal with and could end up keeping it in check. On the other hand it has a huge amount of time over EXTREMELY warm water. It's also being modeled as a very small tropical cyclone and they tend to be tightly wrapped and very powerful. At any rate it's still very early and alot of things can change.

BTW the CMC looks like it ends up recurving the cape verde storm OTS.