Tropical Storm Lee

[John1122]

GFS lays the hammer down on us, especially East Tennessee.

[maryvillereb2003]

sweet jesus...imagine if it were winter time and that was snow! haha

[John1122]

It's pretty much dropping apocalypse rains over the Western Carolina area, and near that here.

JKL had this to say this morning.

THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY NOW SEEN HAS
INCREASED OUR CONFIDENCE THAT PART OF...OR PERHAPS ALL OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT NEXT WEEK AS THE
REMAINS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 MOVE SLOWLY NORTH INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

They said they are waiting on another set of model runs confirming this to ramp up the precip chances.

The total precip GFS map through 165 hours has 2.5-4 inches for Middle Tennessee, 5-10 inches for most of East Tennessee from the Plateau East and 10-15 inches for the mountains and foothills of North Carolina.

[DocB]

The total precip GFS map through 165 hours has 2.5-4 inches for Middle Tennessee, 5-10 inches for most of East Tennessee from the Plateau East and 10-15 inches for the mountains and foothills of North Carolina.

I'll take it. My grass is so crunchy that I haven't been able to mow since July.

[jmundie]

6z continues the goodbye southeast drought trend

[Adam]

6z continues the goodbye southeast drought trend

That it does mundie. Multiple rounds of rain.

[Thundersnow]

sweet jesus...imagine if it were winter time and that was snow! haha

All I can think of when I see rainfall amounts projected like some of these models show is the weekend of May 1-2, 2010.  And, I don't wish that on anyone...

[Adam]

All I can think of when I see rainfall amounts projected like some of these models show is the weekend of May 1-2, 2010.  And, I don't wish that on anyone...

I about forgot about that.

[jmundie]

All I can think of when I see rainfall amounts projected like some of these models show is the weekend of May 1-2, 2010.  And, I don't wish that on anyone...

The rain should be spread out over 3 or more days... I doubt we get 15 inches in 36 hours ever again in our lives

[Thundersnow]

The rain should be spread out over 3 or more days... I doubt we get 15 inches in 36 hours ever again in our lives

I wasn't thinking about us but some of the areas projected to get double digit rainfall totals such as NOLA and WNC.  That's why I said I don't wish that on anyone.

Three days over 36 hours is definitely better for them if that's the case though.

[tsmith7101]

I wasn't thinking about us but some of the areas projected to get double digit rainfall totals such as NOLA and WNC.  That's why I said I don't wish that on anyone.

Three days over 36 hours is definitely better for them if that's the case though.

 


WNC? I knew about NOLA but not WNC.  I have not looked at the forecast for that area.. Most of my family still lives there and do not follow the weather? Where are you looking at reports for that area? 

[Eric]

 


WNC? I knew about NOLA but not WNC.  I have not looked at the forecast for that area.. Most of my family still lives there and do not follow the weather? Where are you looking at reports for that area?

Not to speak for TS, but I'm sure he's looking at model guyidance and not individual area forecasts.

[Thundersnow]

 


WNC? I knew about NOLA but not WNC.  I have not looked at the forecast for that area.. Most of my family still lives there and do not follow the weather? Where are you looking at reports for that area?

I was referring to the model graphic John posted earlier:



As Eric said, though, that's not a forecaster's forecast, but rather one model run.  Don't take it to the bank.

[Curt]

12z GFS first model to start pushing this a little westward, dumping nearly 9-10 inches from metro Memphis to Nashville. Someone is gonna get nailed from this event. Something to watch for sure.

[tsmith7101]

12z GFS first model to start pushing this a little westward, dumping nearly 9-10 inches from metro Memphis to Nashville. Someone is gonna get nailed from this event. Something to watch for sure.

That is a little concerning! Now I realize it is not the kinda rain like May 2010, But, I am wondering why the LOCAL WEATHER METS have not started talking about the potential of this thing if the track varies a little.