Tropical Storm Lee

[jmundie]

Honestly, I don't see how this thing doesn't go due north into the NOLA area and get caught up in our front coming through on labor day.

Models sure dot have a clue though.

[Adam]

Honestly, I don't see how this thing doesn't go due north into the NOLA area and get caught up in our front coming through on labor day.

Models sure dot have a clue though.

I have no clue where this thing is going to go. This is a jumbled up mess of a storm.

[Charles L.]

Some models have "Lee" missing this first trough all together and then getting caught by the second one later on...it just meanders around in the Gulf until then, for quite a while bringing HUGE amounts of rainfall to the NOLA area...

That "potential" just doesn't add up with me, I am still thinking we see "Lee" get to strong TS/low end Cat.1 strength and see this first trough pick it up near the NOLA area...but I just am not buying these models that show him just sitting there in the Gulf.

[jmundie]

Some models have "Lee" missing this first trough all together and then getting caught by the second one later on...it just meanders around in the Gulf until then, for quite a while bringing HUGE amounts of rainfall to the NOLA area...

That "potential" just doesn't add up with me, I am still thinking we see "Lee" get to strong TS/low end Cat.1 strength and see this first trough pick it up near the NOLA area...but I just am not buying these models that show him just sitting there in the Gulf.

Exactly.

If it does somehow miss the first trough, NOLA is gonna fill up with water. I can't imagine they've got the pumping resources to handle that much rain day after day after day

[Fred Gossage]

Some models have "Lee" missing this first trough all together and then getting caught by the second one later on...it just meanders around in the Gulf until then, for quite a while bringing HUGE amounts of rainfall to the NOLA area...

That "potential" just doesn't add up with me, I am still thinking we see "Lee" get to strong TS/low end Cat.1 strength and see this first trough pick it up near the NOLA area...but I just am not buying these models that show him just sitting there in the Gulf.

If he stays weak and disorganized, he is a LOT less likely to be picked up by the trough... and more likely to meander across the Gulf, south of the surface front that will stall out near the coast. It's really not that much of an off-the-wall solution at all.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Seems recon has found west winds and a LLC today...Might have a TD shortly.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Hope they all have boats down there in New Orleans

[jmundie]

Seems recon has found west winds and a LLC today...Might have a TD shortly.

Looks pretty decent on the NAM sim radar... luckly appears the strongest winds will effect mostly bayou and marshland.

Lots of rain for NOLA, and imagine a bit of surge. A slightly further east track, and a bit stronger 'cane would certainly be interesting.

[dwagner88]

There appears to be a good shot we get soaked out of it though. I've actually had about 5 inches of rain this month but I know the southern and central Valley haven't had much, if any rain at all.

August was a weird month. I had over an inch of rain on July 31st, and then not even a drop until today, September 1st. Got a real nice soaking today. Maybe this can bring us some more moisture. Somehow we still have a slight surplus despite the precip-free month.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

TD 13

[bugalou]

Well I see the media hype engine is in full gear on this storm already and are already calling it the next "billion dollar storm". 

[Crockett]

TD 13

Come north, baby...come north.

[John1122]

Well I see the media hype engine is in full gear on this storm already and are already calling it the next "billion dollar storm". 

If it does what it's currently being modeled to do it could definitely cause widespread catastrophic flooding, not sure if it will make it to a billion in damage though.

[Dave R]

Sure hope this changes....

[Clay]

Just a ridiculous amount of rainfall! With the track modeling has the system taking, a good soaking rain is entirely on the table for at least part of the state. The area of convection is so broad.