Hurricane Irene (Significant U.S. Threat)

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Good morning, the light of day has revealed a maturing tropical cyclone that is Irene. Irene has jumped and jogged her way to about 40 miles SSW of Antigua overnight, and is entering a low shear enviroment with little to no dry air.



She has had an outer outflow band of convection that has protected her core from the dry air. Now that most of the dry air has been abated by the TC, that will probably disappear early today as she becomes more organized and moves closer towards P.R. and I suspect she will be a Hurricane by tonight.

The big question is does the core pass over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and if it does how much damage to the tropical cyclone does it do? That's an almost impossible question to answer  with any accuracy, but I dont think hispaniola will hurt the structure of this particular storm too bad, and when/if it exits hispaniola it could very well still be a strong TC.

Anyways it's looking like it will landfall in FL somewhere, but where exactly remains to be seen. I'm sort of worried about flash flooding in the mountains here in east TN. Stronger TC's that track inland in my area have a well documented history of extreme mountain stream flooding, but that's for a later discussion.

Here is the current model tracks and intensity forecasts

[Crockett]

The GFS has shifted considerably east, and has gone from many of the ensembles showing Irene sliding up Florida's west coast to many of them now showing Irene sliding up the east coast of the state. Good news so far...

[Cyclonicjunkie]

NHC changed their cone a little, I think they have the track about spot on, but I think the intensity forecast is a little conservative. I can see this becoming a hurricane somewhat quicker and a little stronger than they have it. Of course that is strictly my opinion. They do a great job trying to nail this down.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Irene is starting to show signs of even better organazation, up until now she wasn't building much convection south of the COC. She sorta looks lopsided with all the outflow convection to the north, but now the big protection band is disapating and some nice mid level inflow can be seen south of the COC.

I imagine in the next few hours it will start taking on the classic look of a organized tropical cyclone.

[Kevin]

At this point I wouldn't rule out this one missing FL and trying to come in further North to GA/SC/NC. Models continue shifting East...and continued center reformation to the North is only increasing that probability. GOM threat...while not zero yet...is getting drastically smaller now. Intensity still way up in the air. Goes without saying every system this season so far has underperformed and several may not even have been deserving of their name. We'll see if Irene is the first to change this...

[Cyclonicjunkie]

At this point I wouldn't rule out this one missing FL and trying to come in further North to GA/SC/NC. Models continue shifting East...and continued center reformation to the North is only increasing that probability. GOM threat...while not zero yet...is getting drastically smaller now. Intensity still way up in the air. Goes without saying every system this season so far has underperformed and several may not even have been deserving of their name. We'll see if Irene is the first to change this...

Yeah i've noticed the trend to, plus IMO Irene seems to have been north of where the NHC has been placing it from the the very first advisory. The 12z GFS is certainly not what the southeastern/Mid Atlantic seaboard wants either. They haven't seen anything like that since Hugo probably. It is a very dramatic shift from 6 to 12z, missing most of the islands, it gives it plenty of time to ingest all that fuel and it bomb's into what would probably be a major Hurricane.

I imagine Savannah GA would be pretty shaken up if that run were to verify.






Lets see what the Euro has to say about this

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Looking at satellite, it looks like P.R could possibly take direct hit. Hopefully it wont intensify quickly before that happens but it is organizing and intensity usually goes hand in hand with organazation.

Edit: NHC just listed the pressure at 999Mb which means this is intensifying but they kept the MPH at 50.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Still no agreement between these two but they both shifted east

12z HWRF



12zGFDL

[maryvillereb2003]

looks like it could be north of the NHC track. looking like it COULD miss too much land interaction and be set to hit the east coast as a major hurricane

[Cyclonicjunkie]

looks like it could be north of the NHC track. looking like it COULD miss too much land interaction and be set to hit the east coast as a major hurricane

That has become a real possibility. Im having a good time this weekend tracking this one




Irene is starting to show some beautiful structure. 



This storm is going to be HUGE in size when it gets completely organized 

[Kevin]

I've slightly adjusted the title as well as stickied this thread in preparation for later developments/discussion and possible additional adjustment...carry on

[StormNine]

Since Puerto Rico is a US Territory. It has a NWS site which is liked here.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Lets see what the Euro has to say about this

Well, just in case anbody hasn't seen it

946Mb


A little disturbing and exciting at the same time

[Ratchet_33]

I believe when the Hurricane hunters get their planes in this one there gonna upgrade to a cat. 1 by tonight

[Adam]

That radar makes it look like it is going southwest.