Hurricane Irene (Significant U.S. Threat)

[Cyclonicjunkie]

The African Wave Train has pulled into the Atlantic and is producing vigorous tropical waves. 93L was the first of these well organized tropical waves, but since it looks harmless to the US, lets talk about 97L.

It has had tremendous model support for a landfalling hurricane somewhere in the Eastern U.S. The GFS has been stubbornly consistent with this being a problem somewhere along the SE and East coast, and now the euro has jumped on board. Let me remind you that it is still a open wave in the middle of the Atlantic, and as of now is lacking organized convection and doesn't have a low level center.

Until then you have take these models with a pretty big grain of salt, but I am now noting here, the uncanny consistency of the GFS landfalling a very well developed cane in our region.

Here is the latest run with the cane in the gulf in the hi-res gfs hour of 192.


It goes on to landfall near the LA/TX border








As im posting this it looks as if it is becoming better organized

[maryvillereb2003]

98L




Strong ridge should prevent this from going OTS.

[ajatwister]

Getting ready for bed and thought id check the 0z gfs. wow. Major hurricane effecting the caribbean and making landfall as a hurricane somewhere between pesnacola florida west into mississippi.

[Eric]

Getting ready for bed and thought id check the 0z gfs. wow. Major hurricane effecting the caribbean and making landfall as a hurricane somewhere between pesnacola florida west into mississippi.

Let's temper our enthusiasm....the 0z Euro has it curving out to sea.  We're about to enter our first session of "wait-and-see" mode this tropical season.   

[jmundie]

Let's temper our enthusiasm....the 0z Euro has it curving out to sea.  We're about to enter our first session of "wait-and-see" mode this tropical season.   

If the Euro is thinking recurve, would that mean its troughy in the east?

I'll take the hurricane rains, or the fall like trough.  indeed

[maryvillereb2003]

seriously doubt 97L will recurve. latest model guidance:

[Fred Gossage]

Let's temper our enthusiasm....the 0z Euro has it curving out to sea.  We're about to enter our first session of "wait-and-see" mode this tropical season.   

Yet the Euro ensembles last night had the storm tracking toward Louisiana.

[Eric]

Yet the Euro ensembles last night had the storm tracking toward Louisiana.

Didn't look at the ensembles....only the op, obviously    . 

[Fred Gossage]

Didn't look at the ensembles....only the op, obviously    .

The Canadian ensemble mean last night looked like an equal split... with it showing one low over Louisiana, and another just as intense... off the South Carolina coast. Not necessarily showing two storms, for those others trying to figure this out... but it's all the different ensemble members averaged together into one mean "average" image... and with it showing two equally intense low pressures in the two "track camps", we are to assume the Canadian ensembles are near equally split on the idea.

[Fred Gossage]

12Z GFS ensembles are a Mississippi like strike track.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical216.gif

[jmundie]

I haven't had a chance to follow any landfalling storms, since I first found easternuswx in 2006, and by extension the GFS site, but don't the globals typically underdo the pressure of these storms? Like when its showing something in the 980mb range, its likely seeing a beast of a 'cane?

[Fred Gossage]

I haven't had a chance to follow any landfalling storms, since I first found easternuswx in 2006, and by extension the GFS site, but don't the globals typically underdo the pressure of these storms? Like when its showing something in the 980mb range, its likely seeing a beast of a 'cane?

When the extended range models end up right about the storm being there, yes... because their grid resolution can't handle the inner pressure gradient of the major and/or tightly wound hurricanes. We've often seen, in these cases, when the model is right in the extended range... the 960-970mb hurricanes from the extended range progs, have verified under 935mb.

[Fred Gossage]

Here's an infrared floater for our little 97L beastie.



2 pm EDT TWO is at 40% for development within the next 48 hours.

[Fred Gossage]

12Z Euro is a westward shift. It comes due north from the Keys up toward Atlanta.... instead of the western Bahamas to the Outer Banks. There is also a trend this run... of the first trough being weaker and faster to exit... and the ridging to build back in behind it faster and stronger. Everything has shifted westward so far today.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Boy, I was surprised to see such organazation amidst all the dry air that has this sytstem surrounded...That's not a good sign, when dry air cant even seem to prevent this from getting better organized, the chances of this getting really organized dramatically goes up.

My parents are going to the Everglades for vacation this coming week

The 12zGfs even had what appeared to be an eye of the SW coast of FL, thats also not good sign


Notice the organazation while being surrounded by dry air (orange).