Fall wx discussion

[WillT]

I have to agree with John. I'm not seeing any indication of a pattern change after Irene goes by. According to my NWS forecast, it's right back to highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s next week. It seems like it's always at least October before we get any sustained fall conditions, and I see no reason to think that this year will be any different.

[bugalou]

I have to agree with John. I'm not seeing any indication of a pattern change after Irene goes by. According to my NWS forecast, it's right back to highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s next week. It seems like it's always at least October before we get any sustained fall conditions, and I see no reason to think that this year will be any different.

You guys in east TN make me laugh.  I would gladly take these temps with low to moderate humidity.

[John1122]

It's never all that hot in my area, although Chattanooga where Will is I believe is probably usually second to Memphis in the heat department among the larger cities.

I just really enjoy those first days with highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 40s. And when you get a pattern shift in September, that's often the kind of weather you get.

[WillT]

You guys in east TN make me laugh.  I would gladly take these temps with low to moderate humidity.

Oh, I'm definitely not complaining. I grew up in Starkville, MS so the weather here is MUCH better than what I was used to growing up. It still doesn't feel like fall in the slightest, though. Like John said, highs in the 70slow and lows in the low 50s or 40s say "fall" for me. We won't get that, in all likelihood, until October.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I have to agree with John. I'm not seeing any indication of a pattern change after Irene goes by. According to my NWS forecast, it's right back to highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s next week. It seems like it's always at least October before we get any sustained fall conditions, and I see no reason to think that this year will be any different.

I think I have been misunderstood, let me clarify.

I'm not saying there WILL be a pattern change, i'm simply saying that VERY powerful LPS's tend to end up changing our pattern..... And since this WILL be a very powerful and purely extratropical storm by the time it reaches the Canadian border, the models could be handling the situation incorrectly by treating it as purely tropical all the way up the Eastern U.S...... Just a thought, nothing in stone...... and i'm FAR from saying there will be sustained highs in the 70's and lows in the 40's, that's typical October Climatology for here, and surely you know.... that ME (Cyclonicjunkie) wouldn't go against Climatology now don't you?

[WillT]

I think I have been misunderstood, let me clarify.

I'm not saying there WILL be a pattern change, i'm simply saying that VERY powerful LPS's tend to end up changing our pattern..... And since this WILL be a very powerful and purely extratropical storm by the time it reaches the Canadian border, the models could be handling the situation incorrectly by treating it as purely tropical all the way up the Eastern U.S...... Just a thought, nothing in stone...... and i'm FAR from saying there will be sustained highs in the 70's and lows in the 40's, that's typical October Climatology for here, and surely you know.... that ME (Cyclonicjunkie) wouldn't go against Climatology now don't you?

I see what you're saying now, and I agree. Wasn't it last year or the year before that we had a huricane go up off the coast that led to a pattern change? I suppose we can all hope that the same thing happens with Irene, but I won't be holding my breath.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I see what you're saying now, and I agree. Wasn't it last year or the year before that we had a huricane go up off the coast that led to a pattern change? I suppose we can all hope that the same thing happens with Irene, but I won't be holding my breath.

Im not sure if it happened last year or not...and I also know that this one wont let us into october wx in August. It just dont happen. The air in Canada is not cold enough, that's not to say it wont shove us into a  somewhat cooler pattern.

[WillT]

...and I also know that this one wont let us into october wx in August. It just dont happen. The air in Canada is not cold enough, that's not to say it wont shove us into a  somewhat cooler pattern.

Yeah, I'd probably have to move to North Dakota or something to get that weather at this time of the year. It would be nice to get a cooler pattern, especially in the morning. That cool down we had a week or so ago was nice.

[snowdog]

This is always the longest time of the year.  It seems August and early September drag on forever.  I'm so sick of 90 degrees.   

[John1122]

We might get a day or two of cooling, but the pattern of above normal temperatures from Texas all across the SE doesn't appear to change at all in the wake of the storm over the next couple of weeks.

We are going to continue in the 4-6 degree above normal pattern until at least the middle of September by the look of things.

[Milodog2]

The weather in Knoxville is awesome today. Their is a chill in the air for the first time this year. 80' at noon with a 10 mph wind from the north.

[Eric]

The weather in Knoxville is awesome today. Their is a chill in the air for the first time this year. 80' at noon with a 10 mph wind from the north.

You can thank Irene for that.....

Fairly significant breezes today in Murfreesboro, too.....feels nice.   

[jmundie]

Honestly, to truly end this heat wave (though it does look like Irene may enhance the east coast Troughiness a bit) we need a hurricane landfall near Houston and low pressure to park and help out the drought down there. From what I understand, it's hard to break down the heat and high pressure unless they get some rain. That's why entrenched drought gets entrenched.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Honestly, to truly end this heat wave (though it does look like Irene may enhance the east coast Troughiness a bit) we need a hurricane landfall near Houston and low pressure to park and help out the drought down there. From what I understand, it's hard to break down the heat and high pressure unless they get some rain. That's why entrenched drought gets entrenched.

There looks to be a trough to move into the central and midwestern part of the conus in about a week, hopefully that will lend some rainy systems to that part of the country. This trough could act as a magnet for a tropical system in the gulf and end up grabbing any tropical moisture that were in the vicinity of the GOM providing some beneficial rain to those parched areas.

Globals want to breakdown the ridge in the central US and push whats left of it to the SW in the long range, replacing the ridge with troughyness and zonal flow. Its hard to tell exactly what synoptic features are the cause of this due to the horrible resolution of models in the long range. It could be a gulf tropical cyclone that is directly related to this IDK. I have seen the possibility of a gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone on several runs in the long range, and like you said that would probably be the knockout punch needed if it gave the Texas and SW area alot of rain.

I have not been feeling the effects of the ridge that much  here on the eastern side of the state, our heat here lately has just been typical August climo to a little above. The heat will have to breakdown out there sooner or later as the Jet will be heading south for the fall.


Day 8 Temp departure from normal with said trough

[jmundie]

Yeah toot

Just looked at the longe range on the 12z gfs..... After ten days it's wanting to drop a major cold front through the center of the country. Looks like highs in the low to mid 70s and lows possibly dipping below 50 not far off.