Fall wx discussion

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Both the 0zEuro and 6zGFS are showing signs of a well amplified fall type trough over the eastern US near hour 240.

ECM 240hr



GFS hr240
With what looks to my eye to be a powerful pattern changing storm ushering in a well amplified fall type trough



These are great signs if you are hoping for a early start to fall and the two big models relatively agree on this pattern change very far out, which is not that common

[maryvillereb2003]

gahlee i sure hope so

[Cyclonicjunkie]

gahlee i sure hope so

They're showing this around the 23 of Aug, but the long range models have been about a week ahead vs what really plays out....so I wouldnt expect this until the first of SEP, if they keep showing it on future runs

[beneficii]

Both the 0zEuro and 6zGFS are showing signs of a well amplified fall type trough over the eastern US near hour 240.

ECM 240hr



GFS hr240
With what looks to my eye to be a powerful pattern changing storm ushering in a well amplified fall type trough



These are great signs if you are hoping for a early start to fall and the two big models relatively agree on this pattern change very far out, which is not that common

Nice.  This'll also make the east coast tropical weenies happy, in that setup would make east coast landfalls more likely.

[chaser2b]

Meh... I just wish we would actually get a little rain for once. I'm getting kind of tired of the failcasting lately.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Likely to be the first true cold front of the season

Of course this is mid range but the 18z continues the pattern changing storm looks like a severe setup for someone too.




I have a high confidence in the coolest air of the summer invading tennessee around the end of the month. And I wouldnt rule out some record cold temps around the end of Aug-first of SEP. It's a classic setup for a early fall cool shot in late summer.

Just Check out all  the 20's 30s-40's up  there in NC-NW Canada thats forecasted this coming week..Thats the air mass that will be pulled down into our backyards,



allthough it will be cut by the time it gets here but Im expecting low 40s-50's for lows statewide with highs around 65-70

Alot of the individual ensembles also agree with temps nearly 15 deg below normal..

[tennessee storm09]

models are slowly backing away from this now, even trying to build the ridge back to some degree. looks like prety much the same ole boring weather pattern to me. it will take a major trough t break this thing. also looke for the cane track to remain the same also, which are going to mexico or staying out in the atlantic and curving right.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

models are slowly backing away from this now, even trying to build the ridge back to some degree.

Not really, the upper level ridge is moving westward, the 0z models were less amplified with the trough, but that cool canadian air is still there and would reduce temps here but it just wouldnt make it as far south.

The models will wain back and forth with how deep the trough will be but I generally think we will see cooler than normal temps around the end of the month to the first of september.

This is were the WEAK upper level ridge is now and we are currently under a trough, the ridge will keep moving westward and this trough will be here quite often this fall and winter, but I bet it gets much more amplified by the end of this month.

looks like prety much the same ole boring weather pattern to me. it will take a major trough t break this thing.

Its not the same wx pattern, the ridge has already broke and is moving west its not dominating our wx like it has, nearly all summer. As I already stated we are currently under the influence of a weak trough.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Huge ridge out west and a pretty deep trough here in the east on the 0z Euro at mid range.

[jmundie]

Huge ridge out west and a pretty deep trough here in the east on the 0z Euro at mid range.

Loving this... cant wait for football, grilling, leaves changing, and not sweating.

[jmundie]

12z GFS completely lost the cool down next week.

Though, I can't find a surface high pressure anywhere, but its showing a giant area of greater than 30C coverage from lubbock to NYC

Throw it out?

[Eric]

12z GFS completely lost the cool down next week.

Though, I can't find a surface high pressure anywhere, but its showing a giant area of greater than 30C coverage from lubbock to NYC

Throw it out?

Maybe see what the 18z GFS says....or the 12z Euro.  I haven't had time to follow squadoosh, so I can't say one way or the other. 

[snowdog]

Looks like the cool down has been postponed till the beginning of Sept.  Models have gone back and forth, which is typical.  At least we are getting some comfortable night time temps.

[John1122]

It's always tough to get a huge pattern change. We've had a bit of one with the super heat breaking at least.

Even though the CPC has been forecasting below normal in the 2 week range for at least a 10 days it's not really been showing up in the forecast once it gets within the 7 day forecast period.

[WillT]

Looks like the cool down has been postponed till the beginning of Sept.

At which point it will be pushed back to the middle of September, then the end of September, then early October, etc. etc. That is, if previous years provide a pattern. I certainly agree in regards to the comfortable night temps and lower humidity, though. Just tough to get rid of summer temps so early in the season.