93L

[tsmith7101]

Are the hurricane hunters flying into this? are is it not organized enough yet?

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Are the hurricane hunters flying into this? are is it not organized enough yet?

Probably not organized enough yet..and the later it organizes the less chance of it gaining lattitude to effect the U.S

[tsmith7101]

Is there anything that will pull this North? into the GOM?

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Is there anything that will pull this North? into the GOM?

If it intensified very quickly it could gain lattitude and get into the gulf, but that dont look to happen. Probably be another weak cyclone in the bay of campeche.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

That crazy nam has twin tropical cyclones

[tsmith7101]

If it intensified very quickly it could gain lattitude and get into the gulf, but that dont look to happen. Probably be another weak cyclone in the bay of campeche.

that is too bad ! Texas could use some rain!

[jmundie]

Im not sure what effects the PDO and AO have on tracks of TC's, but I would guess it would be pretty minimal.

On the other hand, a Negative NAO is not conducive for landfalling canes in the eastern US. Anytime the NAO is postive during hurricane season the eastern seaboard is usually fair game, unless there are other synoptic factors preventing a landfall. But a genearl rule is -NAO = storms recurving OTS, +NAO =  a open door on the east coast for tropical cyclones to track.

Wasn't talking about tracks, so much as development in general.

It seems to me, starting with the lack of tropical cyclones 2006-present, something has switched in the atmosphere. We've got lots of cold/snow, heat/flood records being broken all over the planet... something in the atmosphere seems to have changed over the last 5 years.

I'm sure we'll figure it out someday, for now, my hypothesis is that it has something to do with the solar minimum and the switch of the PDO/AO/NAO regime

[Fred Gossage]

Wasn't talking about tracks, so much as development in general.

It seems to me, starting with the lack of tropical cyclones 2006-present, something has switched in the atmosphere. We've got lots of cold/snow, heat/flood records being broken all over the planet... something in the atmosphere seems to have changed over the last 5 years.

I'm sure we'll figure it out someday, for now, my hypothesis is that it has something to do with the solar minimum and the switch of the PDO/AO/NAO regime

You do realize we had 19 named storms last year, 12 of those hurricanes, and 5 of those hurricanes were major.... right? And in 2008, we had 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 of those were major. We haven't been just sitting on our behinds, in terms of tropical development, after 2005...

[jmundie]

You do realize we had 19 named storms last year, 12 of those hurricanes, and 5 of those hurricanes were major.... right? And in 2008, we had 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 of those were major. We haven't been just sitting on our behinds, in terms of tropical development, after 2005...

Storms we wouldn't have even known about 50 years ago. There have been a dearth of storms compared to historic averages, especially taking into account the lack of satellite data prior to the 60s and 70s.

[maryvillereb2003]

LOOK OUT!

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Banding features starting to show up now, to me it still looks like a weak cyclone near the Yucatan.