93L

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Welcome to the peak time of Cape verde season.......Possibly could have three TC's in the ATL at one time...NHC is giving them all medium chances at development into TC's..But im concerned about 93 L becoming a major cane with a higher than normal chance at a landfall in the SE.

93L



It's looking more and more likely that it will effect the SE in one way or another.





GFS and its ensembles say it could be gulf bound





WV



0ZGFS has it a major Cane in the gulf



Surface pressure and wind speed in Kts

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Heat potential that 93L is heading for



The SST's are really starting to get downright hot from the islands westward.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Dry air is really preventing any kind of organazation right now.



But as it gets further west it will escape the dry air, and we should see a nice burst of convection tonight.

[Fred Gossage]

I have a rough feeling about this one. At some point, it WILL get into a favorable environment for rapid development. Right now, all this easterly low-level shear and dry air entrainment is doing... is dramatically reducing the chances of a recurve or Atlantic Coast hit. I think we have a Caribbean system from this, and I wouldn't rule out the thing getting into the Gulf either.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I have a rough feeling about this one. At some point, it WILL get into a favorable environment for rapid development. Right now, all this easterly low-level shear and dry air entrainment is doing... is dramatically reducing the chances of a recurve or Atlantic Coast hit. I think we have a Caribbean system from this, and I wouldn't rule out the thing getting into the Gulf either.

I agree Fred, the longer it stays disorganized, the better the chances of a gulf Hurricane, and even though its long range the GFS has been pretty consistent on the last 3 runs of this getting into the gulf.

The pattern evolving looks conducive for a GOM or FL landfall, if and when it develops. This very possibly could be the first major cane to make a landfall in the SE since 2008, I think. Correct me if im wrong. The NAO looks to go positive around this time also, and most SE US landfalls occur with a +NAO.

Im going to go out on a limb and say if this develops it has a 30% chance at a GOM landfall.....A 10% chance of a recurve, a 20% chance of SE coastline landfall. A  20% chance of a hispaniola shredder that disipates it. And a 20% chance of a Mexican landfall.

[tennessee storm09]

yeah just looking at the 12z gfs, shows it coming through central arkansas and going ne from there. could get some benifcial rains from that, and perhaps some severe weather from it as well. especially if the center goes just west of us. but its still ways out, but somewthing to watch none the less

[Fred Gossage]

It's still looking like the best track for 93L is a Caribbean track... but in my opinion.... it's honestly looking like it might not do so as more than a tropical wave. Something has to change dramatically before the end of Tuesday.... in order for this to have a chance at developing anywhere before the western Caribbean, if even then. You won't see a system spin-up in the eastern Caribbean at this time of year, for one of the main reasons this couldn't spin-up already... strong easterly low-level shear.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

It's still looking like the best track for 93L is a Caribbean track... but in my opinion.... it's honestly looking like it might not do so as more than a tropical wave. Something has to change dramatically before the end of Tuesday.... in order for this to have a chance at developing anywhere before the western Caribbean, if even then. You won't see a system spin-up in the eastern Caribbean at this time of year, for one of the main reasons this couldn't spin-up already... strong easterly low-level shear.

Yeah, it looks pretty wimpy right now, but August is primetime climo speaking for tropical cyclones to form in the eastern Carribean



The euro takes it into C America it looks like

[Cyclonicjunkie]

With TS Gert forming, I believe we have set a record, there have been 7 TS that never formed into a hurricane unless Gert defies Forecasts it will also not intensify into a hurricane...Can we get through august without a cane? I doubt it

[bugalou]

With TS Gert forming, I believe we have set a record, there have been 7 TS that never formed into a hurricane unless Gert defies Forecasts it will also not intensify into a hurricane...Can we get through august without a cane? I doubt it

lol... I dunno man.  At this point I am almost about to give up on the tropical season.  We have had a few storms with great conditions just fall apart.  I keep thinking there will be an explosive start to the '11 season but everything keeps falling apart!  I guess that is a good thing for our neighbors on the coast though!

[Cyclonicjunkie]

lol... I dunno man.  At this point I am almost about to give up on the tropical season.  We have had a few storms with great conditions just fall apart.  I keep thinking there will be an explosive start to the '11 season but everything keeps falling apart!  I guess that is a good thing for our neighbors on the coast though!

Yeah, with the extreme wx in winter, extreme wx in spring, extreme wx in summer, I was expecting a extreme cane season.....it's almost time for peak activity and we've had 0 canes....Maybe it will explode all at once, but I doubt that to.

[jmundie]

lol... I dunno man.  At this point I am almost about to give up on the tropical season.  We have had a few storms with great conditions just fall apart.  I keep thinking there will be an explosive start to the '11 season but everything keeps falling apart!  I guess that is a good thing for our neighbors on the coast though!

Until we actually get a couple of major hurricanes, I'm discounting any and all tropical forecasts.

We haven't had a big season now since 2005, the year that the AGW proponents claimed AGW would be sending Katrina esque storms into the US over and over again.

I kinda wonder if the solar minimum, and switch to negative PDO/AO/NAO has something to do with all this.

[bugalou]

Until we actually get a couple of major hurricanes, I'm discounting any and all tropical forecasts.

We haven't had a big season now since 2005, the year that the AGW proponents claimed AGW would be sending Katrina esque storms into the US over and over again.

I kinda wonder if the solar minimum, and switch to negative PDO/AO/NAO has something to do with all this.

Good question.  I would think its the PDO/AO/NAO.  SSTs are definitely not the problem so the sun is doing its job, though it could be affecting things in other ways via the butterfly effect I suppose.  If there has been any trend this year it has been the dry air entrainment into these systems.  It has been the nail in the coffin for many thus far. 

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I kinda wonder if the solar minimum, and switch to negative PDO/AO/NAO has something to do with all this.

Im not sure what effects the PDO and AO have on tracks of TC's, but I would guess it would be pretty minimal.

On the other hand, a Negative NAO is not conducive for landfalling canes in the eastern US. Anytime the NAO is postive during hurricane season the eastern seaboard is usually fair game, unless there are other synoptic factors preventing a landfall. But a genearl rule is -NAO = storms recurving OTS, +NAO =  a open door on the east coast for tropical cyclones to track.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

93L is entering the Carribean under favorable conditions, it's starting to get "that" look to it, wit the the cyclonic flow and all.



Here is what the 18znam had




The nam is not a great tropical model but it does win once in a while.