Tropical Storm Emily

[Cyclonicjunkie]

And we have TS Emily...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl#contents

current track is for it to stay east of Cuba and get up to hurricane strength right across the eastern FL coastline...if this current track holds, it would be a FL landfall tropical system.

And that is a BIG if mind you...

They have it tracking across the Dominican republic which has a small mountain range that could very well do some damage to this storm, but who knows? This one seems to be defying forecasts and is behaving the way it wants to.

 Going to be an interesting week of wx watching



18z model tracks



Water Vapor




Infared Sat





Radar

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[Charles L.]

Another morning...another weak system. Emily's pressure has actually rose a millibar to 1007 and the organization has continued to be poor.

I am hoping this system hits portions of FL and SC...the NHC has already changed its track map and aren't calling for this storm to reach hurricane strength given its close proximity to land and lack of organization thus far.

Those locations need rain badly as well, and if Emily can give it to them...I say let a strong TS (with winds of 60-65 mph) or weak hurricane (winds of 74-80 mph) hit them, I know they would take it.

From my eyes, it looks like this system is moving WSW. That is a huge deal because the further westward this system goes, the higher chances for a US landfall. Of course this thing may not survive at all, but it is something we need to keep an eye on.

[tsmith7101]

Haiti still looks to take a direct from this storm. 
Let's hope this veers away from Haiti (either way to the east or the west) There are still something  like half a million refuges living in tents since Jan 2010 when the Earthquake hit..... 

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Emily is starting to show signs of good organazation, she now has nice outflow/inflow with a developing CDO. She looks like she is almost stationary to my eye, and it's still not very clear of where she might end up. Models keep jumping from one side of FL to the other.

I like a track of a eastern near miss to FL, just offshore with plenty of beneficial rainfall to parts of the state. But this could get a little more serious for the island of Hispaniola. Last NHC update had her at 50mph/1005mb, I expect her to jump up in strength on the late-night/early morning update a good 5-10 MPH/2-4Mb. Shear is now minimal and a Upper level anticyclone is almost directly overhead.

It wouldnt surprise me, to see a Cat1 Hurricane make landfall in the D.R.

[Charles L.]

With it going to go directly over Hispaniola...I still am not sure it even survives that trek.

[harlequin]

IDK, I feel pretty confident it will survive the trek over Hispaniola. Definitely not for sure, but as long as it keeps moving the circulation should remain intact and be able to restrengthen some as it move over the Bahamas. Storms often survive over Hispaniola, they just weaken significantly.

Although, it isn't stacked very well vertically which might hurt it more than usual over Hispaniola.

Emily looks very good on IR/satellite, but is still not very organized.

[Charles L.]

This system keeps wobbling to the WSW, the last few radar images clearly show this. At least Emily is sustaining deep convection, that is a promising sign...but I still am not sure what to expect on the other side of Hispaniola...if it ever decides to cross it!

I want this system to hit FL/GA, though that seems highly unlikely at this point given the interaction with this front...

[Charles L.]

Emily has decided to stall again...should resume a westward movement anytime...it now appears it may just scrape the eastern edge of Hispaniola.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Emily has decided to stall again...should resume a westward movement anytime...it now appears it may just scrape the eastern edge of Hispaniola.

Yep, it looks as if it could sort of thread the needle between Hispaniola and Cuba. People in FL need to keep a very close eye on Ms.Emily..I dont see how it can miss them now.

[Charles L.]

That front should cause this storm to still go east of the US...but it could pass close enough to FL that it brings some much needed rain and some wind. More so than what Don brought to TX.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

IDK Charles, if the subtropical high that is responsible for our heatwave gets any further east, the coastal trough may not even get the chance to pick up Emily, if this were a deeper cyclone I would agree, but with Emily staying relatively weak the further west she will get.

It's definately going to be close
These Cimms graphics really show what could happen




Some fun facts

Emily's history

[Charles L.]

Emily is down to a minimum tropical storm and could very well dissipate today...still will have a tropical system that could regenerate...but it will have to start all over.

[harlequin]

Officially an open wave once again.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

The remmanants of Emily is trying to make a comeback and to me it looks as if it's headed straight towards the FL coastline. She is moving NW at 15mph at a current pressure of 1011mb.

Shear is becoming minimal and convection is starting to fire near the coc. The NHC is giving this a high chance of regeneration and FL will probably get some great rain from this either way.

The remanants of Emily is centered right off the Northern Coast of Cuba in between FL, Cuba, and the Bahamas