Tropical Storm Emily

[John1122]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS.

1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[John1122]

Looks like the SHIPS and GFS are forecasting this to strengthen. It's looking like it could be Hurricane Emily.

[maryvillereb2003]

starting to get that spin!!! 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Up to 70% now, alot of the hurricane models so far are predicting a major hurricane to form from this wave. There has been talk of a pattern change over the eastern U.S, that may have implications on where this ends up.

Definately one worth watching.

[Adam]

Up to 70% now, alot of the hurricane models so far are predicting a major hurricane to form from this wave. There has been talk of a pattern change over the eastern U.S, that may have implications on where this ends up.

Definately one worth watching.

What sort of pattern cchange? Getting rid of the stupid ridge.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

What sort of pattern cchange? Getting rid of the stupid ridge.

No, the midwestern ridge is locked and somebody thru away the key.

 I was talking mainly about the east coast trough  and a weakness in the bermuda ridge that could recurve this storm away from any of the US.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Up to 90% now, and starting to get "that look" but Im not expecting it to effect the conus because chances are pretty high that the east coast trough will catch it, and recurve it out to sea

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.   

Track forecast is also starting to look more and more like a fish storm but it could effect alot of islands, and im betting this one turns into a major hurricane, but until cane models get a better hold on the coc their forecasts wont be to accurate

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I cant help but think how bad this could be for poor old Haiti

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Well all 0z guidance has come in further west, I guess they might be picking up on this staying relatively weak tonight and tomorrow and the LL steering currents will take it right into the GOM if it dont start to ramp up soon.





Water temps it's heading into

[beneficii]

Well all 0z guidance has come in further west, I guess they might be picking up on this staying relatively weak tonight and tomorrow and the LL steering currents will take it right into the GOM if it dont start to ramp up soon.





Water temps it's heading into

I don't think the pattern is at all suitable for this storm to make a U.S. landfall.  What we've been lacking over past few seasons has been a good Bermuda High.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I don't think the pattern is at all suitable for this storm to make a U.S. landfall.  What we've been lacking over past few seasons has been a good Bermuda High.

I agree, the pattern is not the classic GOM bullseye, but if it stays weak like it is now, the low level steering currents will push it into the carribean and the east coast weakness/trough will not pick it up as quickly as it would if it was a organized tropical cyclone. Then it would likely form into a TC in the carribean and wind up being a threat to the SE US. I still think it will recurve OTS but it's going to have to get it's act together pretty quickly to totally miss FL.

Low level Steering currents


I love these type of systems that have a chance to thread the needle



Parallel NAM HR 84









I have no doubt that this one will feel the weakness in the Azores H, and start the recurve somewhere, but where it does this will be crucial as to what Islands and US territory it effects.

It is possible that it recurves and will miss most everything, but it is also possible that it starts a recurve later, and effects the FL peninsula and the SE coastline. There are SEVERAL paths this one could take, but until this gets a better defined COC, the Hurricane models will not be nowhere close to accurate due to the way they initialize.

But I would think this one evolves into the atlantics first strong hurricane of the season, with the very favorable coinditions and time over water that it will be encountering.

Im having fun with this system already

[Susan]

Nice Site

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic

[beneficii]

I agree, the pattern is not the classic GOM bullseye, but if it stays weak like it is now, the low level steering currents will push it into the carribean and the east coast weakness/trough will not pick it up as quickly as it would if it was a organized tropical cyclone. Then it would likely form into a TC in the carribean and wind up being a threat to the SE US. I still think it will recurve OTS but it's going to have to get it's act together pretty quickly to totally miss FL.

Low level Steering currents


I love these type of systems that have a chance to thread the needle



Parallel NAM HR 84









I have no doubt that this one will feel the weakness in the Azores H, and start the recurve somewhere, but where it does this will be crucial as to what Islands and US territory it effects.

It is possible that it recurves and will miss most everything, but it is also possible that it starts a recurve later, and effects the FL peninsula and the SE coastline. There are SEVERAL paths this one could take, but until this gets a better defined COC, the Hurricane models will not be nowhere close to accurate due to the way they initialize.

But I would think this one evolves into the atlantics first strong hurricane of the season, with the very favorable coinditions and time over water that it will be encountering.

Im having fun with this system already

For at least the next 10 days, there is going to be a ridge over the Great Plains/Ozarks region.  Tropical systems generally keep to the south and west of ridges in the Northern Hemisphere, so if it does end up in the Gulf of Mexico, it's most likely to make landfall in Mexico.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

For at least the next 10 days, there is going to be a ridge over the Great Plains/Ozarks region.  Tropical systems generally keep to the south and west of ridges in the Northern Hemisphere, so if it does end up in the Gulf of Mexico, it's most likely to make landfall in Mexico.

I dont see it making it into the Gulf of Mexico, but I wouldn't rule out a Fl landfall as it starts it's recurve back out to sea.

[beneficii]

I dont see it making it into the Gulf of Mexico, but I wouldn't rule out a Fl landfall as it starts it's recurve back out to sea.

OK.  It's very unlikely to benefit Tennessee, however.