Winter Weekend Ahead

[Snowman]

Tn Colts im in coble, and we are having the same weather as in Centerville or mabey ever worse. But are yall still salting the roads? I cant go to work this morning because my car is a block of ice. Wish it would really stop sleeting and freezing rain.

You should have the snow changeover by about 7-8am at least!

[Ben]

Is the majority of the heavy snow over?

[Snowman]

Ben I think the snow will be light  to moderate at times throughout the morning into the early afternoon before tapering off. So far snow that has been reported has been very dry.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Looking at regional radar, it looks like there will be another wave of snow into TN that is currently over E Arkansas.

[Snowman]

Morning Ron, Glad to see you awake!  

[Ron_Jarrell]

Thanks.

I woke up to winter finally arriving in Nashville!!!

Just wish I didn't have to drive in it  :roll: , but now that's over with.

[Snowman]

Yeah Ron, I woke up to an Iceland at 3am and it just keeps getting worse.

[Alex]

Well the radar does not look good for snow lovers.  The other round of precip that was expected to move into the area is rapidly falling apart.  Looks like what you have on the ground now is what you are going to get.

[Mike from Cookeville]

...the snow isn't "falling apart"....it's called passing snow showers coming in from the west....let's be sure we aren't spreading rumors.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Looking at the latest regional radar it looks like the heaviest precip will occur along a Memphis to Huntsville line with just S of Nashville picking up another inch of snow or so down to the mix/snow line.

Looks like Nashville area will maybe get another 1/2" with very light snow headed into the area in the next hour or so.

[Coach B]

You would think that with precip extending all the way back to Ok City and Dallas that the snow/sleet would continue off and on into tonight.  I wonder if they will extend the advisory?

[servocrow]

I was extending out to the So. Mississippi Valley radar earlier....there's still alot of precipitation left to the west....Messy messy day...

Everyone, please be careful out there!!

[Ron_Jarrell]

Important SPC discussion so I'll post it here too:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...NRN MS...NRN AL...TN...MO
BOOT-HEEL...EXTREME NWRN GA...EXTREME SRN KY.

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 181126Z - 181715Z

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE DIRECTION

MIX OF WINTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS AR...SERN MO...SRN
KY AND TN...WHILE SHIFTING/EXPANDING SWD INTO AREAS OF MS/AL/NWRN GA
WHERE SFC TEMPS STILL WERE ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1030Z. FREEZING
RAIN WITH .05-.10 INCH/HR RATES SHOULD DEVELOP FROM N-CENTRAL MS EWD
ACROSS NRN AL...EXTREME NWRN GA AND PORTIONS SERN TN AS FREEZING
LINE SHIFTS SWD THROUGH THIS AREA...IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER CAA AND WET BULB COOLING FROM PRECIP EVAPORATION NEAR
SFC.

PRECIP PHASE WILL GRADATE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THEN TO SNOW
WITH NWD EXTENT...WHILE LOW LEVEL COOLING DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SWD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ONGOING PLUME OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM
W-CENTRAL AR TO MID TN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH TIME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1.5 INCH/HOUR SHOULD OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS...LOCALLY/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 2 INCH/HOUR IN HEAVIER BURSTS.
MORE SPOTTY/LIGHT/INTERMITTENT PRECIP MIX IS EXPECTED WSWWD FROM
THIS AREA ACROSS ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN
ELONGATED...WSW-ENE ORIENTED CONVEYOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WAA -- ATOP COOLING/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 5-7 KFT DEEP SUPERFREEZING
LAYER IN LOW-MIDLEVELS ATOP FCST FREEZING RAIN ZONE. THIS LAYER
WILL BECOME SHALLOWER AND MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT WHERE SLEET
IS FCST...THEN VANISH OVER FCST SNOW SWATH. ELEVATED MUCAPES UNDER
100 J/KG -- ROOTED NEAR 700 MB -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR TO
NRN AL AND SWRN/MID TN. THIS INDICATES OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS
WILL LOCALLY BOOST PRECIP RATES FOR SHORT PERIODS. LIFT WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN ENVIRONMENT OF 700-750 MB FRONTOGENESIS...AXIS OF
WHICH WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS/AL WITH TIME BEFORE WEAKENING
AROUND MID-DAY.

[Thundersnow]

There are some heavier patches of snow moving into western Middle TN on the radar: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=ohx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

That may drop a little extra accumulation before this tapers off.

[Ron_Jarrell]

The plateau is about to get hammered before the precip lets up. Good bit of precip will pile up in S plateau especially around Crossville.