ATL: Tropical Storm Don

[Snowman]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 730 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES NORTH OF
BERMUDA.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.   SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Snowman]

Look at Visible Sat.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Looking decent for an invest, I bet it explodes as it gets into the carribean bathwater.

[Snowman]

Very disorganized system today. NHC putting probs of development at 10%. Conditions are just not conducive for development currently.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Very disorganized system today. NHC putting probs of development at 10%. Conditions are just not conducive for development currently.

Yeah, but thats only in the next 48 hours, Shear looks favorable in the Carrib. and with the MJO pulse
The ECM develops a small close low south of the Campeche pennisula.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

A couple models are now starting to bite on the idea of this mess organizing and heading towards the gulf, the nam has a strong TC headed towards TX/LA

The NHC does not think this will organize in the next 48 hrs.

[Snowman]

System back up to 30% and looks possibly like our next named storm that could affect the Texas coastline. They sure do need the rain!

[Cyclonicjunkie]

This one is getting organized pretty quickly, I wouldnt be surprised if this gets a name tomorrow sometime.

[John1122]

Up to 40% now. I would like to see this one ride from about Houston to Oklahoma City as a nice tropical storm/depression. Would really give out some much needed rain to that area.

[Snowman]

Nhc ups the system to 70% now. Tropical depression likely later today.

[vanster67]

NHC ups it to 80% and says that an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today.  Lets see what happens.

[harlequin]

Recon should find a TD or TS. It all just depends on if they find a LLC. They should probably find a weak one.

[John1122]

NHS is now up to 100% on this one becoming a tropical depression at minimum. Hopefully it doesn't get strong enough to effect oil/gas interests, as gas is already expensive enough for no good reason.

Most of the tracks I've saw so far take this one across south Texas before it dies out over central/western Texas.

I have family in the Dallas area and they aren't doing that well for rain, would love to see it curve a little north.

[Snowman]

System to be upgraded this evening. Hello don...

[Snowman]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN