Tropical Storm Brett

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Not the best looking TS, dry air is trying to keep this one at bay it seems

[Snowman]

Just a few more stats on the newly formed storm. Still looks like minimal effects to mainland.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST.  BRET IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND
LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[harlequin]

Well I see Stewart's name attached to the forecast/discussion...and if there's one thing that you do not associate with Stacy Stewart at NHC...its conservative. I'm sure he had good reasoning for not going all-out with both initial (which the discussion does explain well there...rainfall contamination and/or lack of deep convective mixing) and forecast intensity.

Still...forecast intensity is historically a gamble anyway aside from broad expectations and even then that's not always reliable. This could fall apart in 24 hours...or may be bordering on hurricane strength. Track forecasts are very good now...intensity deviates (in both directions) all the time.

The conservative comment was not aimed at the discussion or the intensity forecast. I was referring to the tropical outlook percentages which were pretty low even when it was fairly obvious a TD was forming.

[bugalou]

Looks like the NE motion has finally started after some stubbornness from Brett to move the way it was suppose to.

[tsmith7101]

So it looks like the forecast calls for an above average hurricane season in the Atlantic. 

It also looks like the La Nina is weakening-and we are going into the Neutral ENSO.
Does this mean there is no WIND SHEAR?
I realize SHEAR is a HURRICANE Killer but does  a weakening LA NINA mean no shear at lower levels too?

Would a NEUTRAL ENSO mean a strong area of development since there is no SHEAR in neither the UPPER or LOWER levels?

Please clarify?       

[Cyclonicjunkie]

So it looks like the forecast calls for an above average hurricane season in the Atlantic. 

It also looks like the La Nina is weakening-and we are going into the Neutral ENSO.
Does this mean there is no WIND SHEAR?
I realize SHEAR is a HURRICANE Killer but does  a weakening LA NINA mean no shear at lower levels too?

Would a NEUTRAL ENSO mean a strong area of development since there is no SHEAR in neither the UPPER or LOWER levels?

Please clarify?       

Tropical storm brett is getting sheared severely right now as evident in this image (Note the naked swirl with the convection sheared off) and the southern part of the storm still has convection due to less shear in that area.







IMO ENSO really doesn't have much if any, impact on the amount of shear across the atlantic. Some say Nino's have more but I dont believe that. Shear is caused by synoptics, and now that we are starting to get into the more favorable time climo wise you will see less and less shear.

La Nina years are usually much more active than Ninos so Neutral cane seasons USUALLY end up more average in numbers. The above average forecasts you are seeing are probably a result of warmer than normal SST's and other more favorable than normal factors such as MSLP long range forecasts.

[tsmith7101]

I assume the warmer Sst's are a result of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation...

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[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

Man, this storm is looking more sheared than a sheep during wool season.  This one is a goner...guess it's time to focus on other vermin out there...