Tropical Storm Brett

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Some leftovers from a front has formed what looks like a surface low to me and a few models are suggesting a TS to blossom out of this





Interesting but we'll see

[Bigm33]

Now that's pretty cool...I just hope if something does become of it that it would somehow change course and come back over some of the Gulf Coast states that are in dire need of rain.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Now that's pretty cool...I just hope if something does become of it that it would somehow change course and come back over some of the Gulf Coast states that are in dire need of rain.

Yeah they sure need the rain, the Nam which is not the best tropical model, develops this and takes it a little north, but it develops another TC in the gulf that would be beneficial, but I doubt this verifies. It would certainly be active if it did ..lolz. Two TC's that close to each other forming in the next day or three just seems very unlikely to me.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I didnt even know the NHC had issued a 20% lemon

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH.

This is getting interesting

[John1122]

Although it's not impossible, tropical cyclones don't really do all that well in close proximity to one another, usually one or both weaken.

But it would be an awesome site to see the Fujiwhara effect happen and have them start pinwheeling around each other.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Although it's not impossible, tropical cyclones don't really do all that well in close proximity to one another, usually one or both weaken.

But it would be an awesome site to see the Fujiwhara effect happen and have them start pinwheeling around each other.

Well the nam was depicting one in the gulf, and one off the East coast seaboard near ga/sc coastline with the FL peninsula in between them. They really wouldnt effect each other because of the FL landmass in between them, unless one became a really strong hurricane and then it would probably weaken or disapate the other, but there definately wouldnt be no fujiwara with land seperating the two.

Anyways I will be happy with just one of them to track

Here is the model projections of 98l



Intensity forecast




Sat

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Already some colder cloud tops/thunderstorms forming near the center, this one could get spinned up pretty quick at this rate

[bugalou]

Here we go.  Hopefully this guy will turn into something and break the seal.  I expect a rapid and intense season once things get rolling.  SSTs are through the roof.

[Charles L.]

Flare-up of convection near the center of circulation this morning...looking very good. The Hurricane Hunters are set to investigate this afternoon, could be looking at a Tropical Depression already.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Flare-up of convection near the center of circulation this morning...looking very good. The Hurricane Hunters are set to investigate this afternoon, could be looking at a Tropical Depression already.

Yeah Charles, it's starting to have that look of a Tropical Cyclone and if it can manage to stay offshore of FL (which it looks like it will do, headed due south) it could become a strong tropical storm IMO. Anyways NHC has went code orange.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

This thing may not move very much today, and it is fighting some shear as you can see from one of the FL NWS offices, that the center is displaced from the colder convection



 

I could still easily see this becoming a Tropical Depression when recon flies. Models are still having a tuff time predicting where this will go, and  thats because steering currents are very weak to almost nil in this area. You can really see the banding and spin starting to develop in the last frames of this ssd loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

[Cyclonicjunkie]

GFDL develops it into a stout TS off the GA/SC coast



Certainly starting to look like a legit Tropical cyclone 

[harlequin]

It is very likely this is a TD now. An upgrade will probably come at some point today.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

It is very likely this is a TD now. An upgrade will probably come at some point today.

I agree, and its possible that it could intensify rather quickly with the bathwater SST's and above normal TC Heat potential

[Cyclonicjunkie]

This system is getting organized fairly quick, and I have no doubt that this is a TD already, Recon is in route and I'll bet this will be classified as a tropical storm sometime today.

This is my best estimate of the COC