Jul/Aug 2011 Heat

[Kevin]

Looking ahead...if the models are correct...I see excessive heat warnings next week for the MEG area (HI 110+). Looks not too dissimilar from last summer's heat wave. We'll hope the models are too aggressive as they have been a few times already this season...

[Curt]

Looking ahead...if the models are correct...I see excessive heat warnings next week for the MEG area (HI 110+). Looks not too dissimilar from last summer's heat wave. We'll hope the models are too aggressive as they have been a few times already this season...

I noticed as well. I'm starting to shed a tear already. Have I said how much I dislike summer?

[bugalou]

I noticed as well. I'm starting to shed a tear already. Have I said how much I dislike summer?

It was bound to happen!  We have been pretty lucky this year as far as big time heat goes.  Here is to hoping the models are being too aggressive (again) and it is short lived.

[Clay]

It's getting to the point that it's unusual for SW TN to not hit 100 just about every summer. I don't think it has always been like that. Not to mention Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville reaching the century mark more often as of recent. It's equally an issue of longitude as it is latitude in the state. The further west you are, the lower your elevation and closer you are to the summer ridge that often builds in the nations heartland.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

It's getting to the point that it's unusual for SW TN to not hit 100 just about every summer. I don't think it has always been like that. Not to mention Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville reaching the century mark more often as of recent. It's equally an issue of longitude as it is latitude in the state. The further west you are, the lower your elevation and closer you are to the summer ridge that often builds in the nations heartland.

I dont have the stats but I remember as a young boy (1980's) it regularly got into the 100's quite often around the Knoxville area, but I also equally remember it getting down below zero during the winter alot too.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

It was bound to happen!  We have been pretty lucky this year as far as big time heat goes. 

Sure have, here is the last 30 days Vs Climatology



Its been quite normal around here temp wise.

[beneficii]

Ugh!! 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
753 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...

.HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM A DISSIPATED FRONT
COMBINED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105 TO 109 ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH
THE HEAT EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 107 TO 113 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THUS COOLER
TEMPERATURES ADD MORE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE.

ARZ035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001>003-007-008-010>017-020>024-TNZ088-
089-091100-
/O.NEW.KMEG.EH.A.0001.110710T1500Z-110712T0500Z/
/O.EXT.KMEG.HT.Y.0002.110709T1600Z-110710T1500Z/
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
BENTON MS-TUNICA-TATE-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-
PONTOTOC-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
MONROE-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
HELENA...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...TUNICA...CLARKSDALE...
BATESVILLE...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...TUPELO...AMORY...ABERDEEN...
BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...
SOMERVILLE
753 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM CDT
SUNDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

* HEAT INDEX READINGS...105 TO 109 DEGREES SATURDAY AND 107 TO 113
  DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

* TIMING...PEAK HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 11 AM AND
  6 PM EACH DAY. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
  LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

* IMPACTS...PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THIS HEAT CAN BE DANGEROUS IF
  THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

[Curt]

It's getting to the point that it's unusual for SW TN to not hit 100 just about every summer. I don't think it has always been like that. Not to mention Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville reaching the century mark more often as of recent. It's equally an issue of longitude as it is latitude in the state. The further west you are, the lower your elevation and closer you are to the summer ridge that often builds in the nations heartland.

I agree on the 100 degree temps becoming more common over the last several summers. Since '98 more than half of the summers have had a temp of 100 or greater, including 107 in 2000, 106 in 2007, and even 104 last summer. Aside from 100, upper 90's are almost a given and I certianly dont remember that being the norm in the 80's (except for 1980 itself). As far as the culprit, I think elevation plays a role, but much more limited than placement of the ridge in the southern plains and drought conditions. Much of Oklahoma is well over 1000 feet in elevation but flat. Their temps well exceed West Tennesse as a whole. Ridge placement seems to be the big winner lately as it flucuates between Oklahoma, Arkansas, and even as far east as W TN.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

CPC's crayon map on the upcoming heat wave

[bugalou]

CPC's crayon map on the upcoming heat wave

Ugh... Excessive heat is probably the only mode of weather I just loathe.  I just hope this thing doesn't lock in like it did last summer around this time.

[Curt]

Ugh... Excessive heat is probably the only mode of weather I just loathe.  I just hope this thing doesn't lock in like it did last summer around this time.

It looks like these bursts of heat are short lived due to backdoor cold fronts, which really dont have Canadian air, but rather clouds and showers. As you and I both know, we have a LONG way to go. August has been the month to dread for years now.

(Its pretty obvious both of us prefer winter, Bugalou).

[Kevin]

I hate the extreme heat...but I also pretty equally hate extreme cold unless there is something else (read: snow) to go along with it. Obviously...the former is much more common around here than the latter.

[Curt]

I hate the extreme heat...but I also pretty equally hate extreme cold unless there is something else (read: snow) to go along with it. Obviously...the former is much more common around here than the latter.

That makes 3 then. All Memphis posters. 

[homemommy]

CPC's crayon map on the upcoming heat wave

Ooh. Gotta love that dip in the crayon coloring over East TN.   

Sorry, Memphinites. My thoughts are with you.   

[Kevin]

Ooh. Gotta love that dip in the crayon coloring over East TN.   

Sorry, Memphinites. My thoughts are with you.   

Memphians...actually   

At any rate...we're pretty used to this over here..as unpleasant as it is. After last year...a couple of days flirting with 110 won't be a huge pain. At least Today...both Temperatures and Dewpoints are running under guidance...and it looks like we're not going to hit advisory criteria as MEG had forecast.. Hopefully that will be a trend that continues throughout.