Winter 2011-2012 trend/forecast discussion.

[jmundie]

GFS ensemble mean builds a HUGE east based block, which is starting to move out as our storm comes in Monday. I think, given that the models didn't see that coming, they may try to break it down too soon.

Regardless, after the block moves out, a period of seasonal temperatures in the east, another weaker block builds in, but in a much better location, leading to lower heights/storminess in the se. This would be a good period for a nice ULL event in the southeast 10 days to 2 weeks from now.

If the block building now holds up though, there will not be much respite from the cold.

[jmundie]

Also - really interested in the end of next week, 8-10 days out. There's been a strong signal for several days of something big coming out of the gulf. It appears to depend on whether the teleconnections cooperate, but about half of the ensemble members are showing a sub 996 low pressure coming out of the gulf or east texas, and dumping somewhere between oklahoma and BNA.

I will say right now - there will be an major snow event somewhere in the eastern/midwestern US with this system. the location of the snow is anyone's guess, but there looks to be sufficient cold, and climowise, a big storm coming out of the gulf is going to dump really big accumulations.

[cd2play]

Still hoping this winter has an 11th hour save   

[Woodvegas]

Also - really interested in the end of next week, 8-10 days out. There's been a strong signal for several days of something big coming out of the gulf. It appears to depend on whether the teleconnections cooperate, but about half of the ensemble members are showing a sub 996 low pressure coming out of the gulf or east texas, and dumping somewhere between oklahoma and BNA.

I will say right now - there will be an major snow event somewhere in the eastern/midwestern US with this system. the location of the snow is anyone's guess, but there looks to be sufficient cold, and climowise, a big storm coming out of the gulf is going to dump really big accumulations.

Not sure if this is coming out of the Gulf but this looks interesting even if it's the DGEX...

[weathertree4u]

Not sure if this is coming out of the Gulf but this looks interesting even if it's the DGEX...

Are there any other models that support this solution? I know BNA has moderate temps going into next weekend, so curious as to how this will pan out.

[jmundie]

Yes - there has been support for it for a while... support for a big storm that is... the timing of the next cold shot, how strong the low gets, the track, have all been in flux the past couple days.

Just climo-wise - a big storm coming out of the gulf with cold air around should dump some snow. A few days ago we were discussing this system in the severe thread, because some were saying it was obviously going to be a big outbreak. Now its a gulf low.

HPC has mentioned that weak blocking has been showing up consistently in the ensembles in this time period, which would support a suppressed track.

Yesterday's 12z op runs had a version of the storm





I'll let you click through the ensembles on your own - but we've been seeing versions of this storm (some very strong, sub 990mb) for the last 5 days really.

[weathertree4u]

Yes - there has been support for it for a while... support for a big storm that is... the timing of the next cold shot, how strong the low gets, the track, have all been in flux the past couple days.

Just climo-wise - a big storm coming out of the gulf with cold air around should dump some snow. A few days ago we were discussing this system in the severe thread, because some were saying it was obviously going to be a big outbreak. Now its a gulf low.

HPC has mentioned that weak blocking has been showing up consistently in the ensembles in this time period, which would support a suppressed track.

Yesterday's 12z op runs had a version of the storm





I'll let you click through the ensembles on your own - but we've been seeing versions of this storm (some very strong, sub 990mb) for the last 5 days really.

Will be interesting to see what the 12Z runs show today

[weathertree4u]

Yes - there has been support for it for a while... support for a big storm that is... the timing of the next cold shot, how strong the low gets, the track, have all been in flux the past couple days.

Just climo-wise - a big storm coming out of the gulf with cold air around should dump some snow. A few days ago we were discussing this system in the severe thread, because some were saying it was obviously going to be a big outbreak. Now its a gulf low.

HPC has mentioned that weak blocking has been showing up consistently in the ensembles in this time period, which would support a suppressed track.

Yesterday's 12z op runs had a version of the storm





I'll let you click through the ensembles on your own - but we've been seeing versions of this storm (some very strong, sub 990mb) for the last 5 days really.

We are seriously past due for a mahjor storm, more than 6", in the Middle TN area

[Curt]

Thought this long narrow snow band from in IL looked kind of interesting. It appears someone got under a long lived snow shower:

[Coach B]

Cool! You reckon thats coming off the Mississippi?  Looks like the snow band lines up perfectly with the stretch of the river to its north.

[cd2play]

As some of you probably recall, the "winter cancel" button started getting pushed real early this year (in the likes of late November).  And from reading other blogs, such as Americawx.com, accuweather blogs, etc, I wasn't the only one, as there were a number of others cancelling winter rather early on this year.  I think I know why.  To put it simply, the fast Pacific flow which developed in November I think really raised the red flag.  The pattern was eerily similar to the Oct/Nov 2003, which lead to a no snow winter 2003-04 (except for the ULL in mid Feb in southern mid TN).  To be honest, even if there were more frequent cold shots this winter, there is an excellent chance this would have been a winter full of cold air chasing moisture chasing cold air routines, or cold and dry.  The fast, progressive pattern just makes it much harder for weather systems to phase, and it would have been difficult for the southern jet stream to hand off moisture into and behind the arctic fronts.  Yes, I kept holding on to hope up until today, but all the while I thought the handwriting may have been on the wall pretty early on.  here we are, winter pretty much shot.  So maybe the warning signs I saw as we approached meteorological winter were not my imagination, but oh how I wish they were. Anyhow, I'm pretty much conceeding to the fact it's just not a year for snow in middle TN. 
Winter 2011-12, go back to where you came from; there's PLENTY of heat down there!

[aubieman]

Did some digging in the daily temp records for Nashville at Wunderground which go back to 1948.  I believe Nashville was above freezing part of the day yesterday, meaning we haven't had a single daytime high at or below 32, as someone mentioned earlier.

To put that in perspective, the only other winter in their records without a single daytime high at or below freezing was 1949-50.  I posted some old daily data from 1875-1876 the other day (I could dig it up if anybody cares, if not, no biggie) that showed it also had no 32 or below highs that winter.  Certainly a rare thing.  Other bits of note I found:
The winter of 77-78 blew away the competition with 21 days with highs of 32 or less.
Winters of 52-53 and 97-98 only had one below freezing high.
Winters of 74-75 and 05-06 only had 2.
Winter of 61-62 had 7 (plus a high of 7 degrees  on Jan 10 and a high of 82 degrees on Feb 13)
Winter of 59-60 had 6, but March 2-7 never got above freezing.
Winter of 95-96 had 12 did not get above 19 degrees from Feb 2-4.
Winter of 09-10 had 12 below freezing highs, and Jan 2-10 had 1 day above at 34 Jan 6.  Tied the record with 6 consecutive days below, but almost had 9 but for one day at 34 degrees.
Winter of 89-90 had 9 below freezing highs, all in December.

Median was about 8.  Last year we had 15.

Perhaps all a matter of trivia.

[jmundie]

Did some digging in the daily temp records for Nashville at Wunderground which go back to 1948.  I believe Nashville was above freezing part of the day yesterday, meaning we haven't had a single daytime high at or below 32, as someone mentioned earlier.

To put that in perspective, the only other winter in their records without a single daytime high at or below freezing was 1949-50.  I posted some old daily data from 1875-1876 other other day (I could dig it up if anybody cares, if not, no biggie) that showed it also had no 32 or below highs that winter.  Certainly a rare thing.  Other bits of note I found:
The winter of 77-78 blew away the competition with 21 says with highs of 32 or less.
Winters of 52-53 and 97-98 only had one below freezing high.
Winters of 74-75 and 05-06 only had 2.
Winter of 61-62 had 7 (plus a high of 7 on Jan 10 and a high of 82 on Feb 13)
Winter of 59-60 had 6, but March 2-7 never got above freezing.
Winter of 95-96 had 12 did not get above 19 degrees from Feb 2-4.
Winter of 09-10 had 12 below freezing highs, and Jan 2-10 had 1 day above at 34 Jan 6.  Tied the record with 6 consecutive days below, but almost had 9 but for one day at 34 degrees.
Winter of 89-90 had 9 below freezing highs, all in December.

Median was about 8.  Last year we had 15.

Perhaps all a matter of trivia.

Yeah - I think technically we were above freezing at midnight yesterday. I don't think I saw a reading over 30 at BNA all day yesterday though.

I guess that's how it's counted, but that's unfortunate.


The global super ensemble is painting a -nao and positive pna in th coming period. We'll see. It picked up first on the cold snap in Europe.

And models have waffled, but I'm still interested In a possible storm next weekend. A couple more runs with nothing and I may bail. Mjo forecast is still good for cold... Models have trended toward more greenland blocking but haven't found any arctic highs.. If the blocking verifies as long as the ao isn't raging positive, we should get some more cold shots.

[Curt]

As some of you probably recall, the "winter cancel" button started getting pushed real early this year (in the likes of late November).  And from reading other blogs, such as Americawx.com, accuweather blogs, etc, I wasn't the only one, as there were a number of others cancelling winter rather early on this year.  I think I know why.  To put it simply, the fast Pacific flow which developed in November I think really raised the red flag.  The pattern was eerily similar to the Oct/Nov 2003,
a no snow winter 2003-04 (except for the ULL in mid Feb in southern mid TN).  To be honest, even if there were more frequent cold shots this winter, there is an excellent chance this would have been a winter full of cold air chasing moisture chasing cold air routines, or cold and dry.  The fast, progressive pattern just makes it much harder for weather systems to phase, and it would have been difficult for the southern jet stream to hand off moisture into and behind the arctic fronts.  Yes, I kept holding on to hope up until today, but all the while I thought the handwriting may have been on the wall pretty early on.  here we are, winter pretty much shot.  So maybe the warning signs I saw as we approached meteorological winter were not my imagination, but oh how I wish they were. Anyhow, I'm pretty much conceeding to the fact it's just not a year for snow in middle TN. 
Winter 2011-12, go back to where you came from; there's PLENTY of heat down there!

While I will concede that winter has been sparse this year, if another event happens- and it could- that might change one's opinion. 2 examples come to mind:

2008- March 7
2009- Feb 28

While I would much rather have a cold January for staying power, both those winters were successfully saved from starvation. I really dont have any expectations at this point, and history shows that some winters are pitiful for our standards. This may be one. I for one am about ready for spring, but not ready to call winter completely over and dead until mid March. You just never know what surprises lie around the corner in these parts. While I wasnt around, March 22, 1968 dumped 18 inches in the Memphis area, and March 17, 1892 had another 18-20 inches. You just never know. If that happened, albeit rather happen in Jan, I would consider it successful.

[Matthew]

I never really seemed to get into the model watching this winter.  Never really had a good storm to track.  The few that one could track were not worth it in my eyes.  I am not saying winter is over yet.... but I sure would like to.  A surprise could happen late but looking at some of the LR details. This winter is on life support about to be declared DOA by me.  This weekend cold snap hurt.  After being used to the warmer winter.  This Wednesday and 57 is gonna be nice.  Looks like near 60 next week.  Wonder if this cold spell helps delay the buds & blooms?  Noticed a ton of robins in my backyard today. Cat is shedding. Spring is in the air early I believe. I am ready for spring so winter either put up or shut up!