Winter 2011-2012 trend/forecast discussion.

[jmundie]

Jmundie if this is even close to verifying. Gonna be a close one no matter what.  Funny how the weather folks are starting to trend to what you have been saying!  You need to be appointed a position at the NWS!!!  You have done your homework this winter.  Kudos to you!!!  Wonder who will be the first channel to touch this?  Channel 2 did not mention a peep.  My sister is a teacher and she text me there is no snow mentioned.  Gonna be warm.  I just tell her to be patient.  Gonna be cold rain no matter what.  Not as warm as they are saying.  What a winter of ups and downs.  Love it!!!

Ha! I'm no where near where I need to be to have a red tag. And we can celebrate my being right about something if it actually happens. Still a long way to go.

[Matthew]

Never said done deal.  If it is even close to verifying then I will give Jmundie a pat on the back.  We all can do better than just give him a pat on the back.  We can all throw him some  !!!!

[Matthew]

Jmudie is willing this storm.  The force is strong with him.

[aubieman]

Bastardi just tweeted:
"Most places n of I-40 going to see enough snow to challenge the winter totals for normal in the next 3-4 weeks.Blocking on euro impressive"

Of course, we know JB is always snow-happy, but hope he's right.  I live about 15 miles S of I-40.  Is that really the divider?

[Matthew]

As long as the DGEX shows nothing we have a chance!

[bugalou]

Haha as a fellow person just south of I40, I can certainly say it is a winter weather force field.

Sent from my GtabComb using Tapatalk

[snowdog]

That is just Bastardi being Bastardi.  I've seen nothing to back up his claims unless he is putting all his chips in on the MJO.  Long Range GFS tonight is crap followed by more crap.  Those that tout the MJO may be left disappointed this go around.

[Curt]

That is just Bastardi being Bastardi.  I've seen nothing to back up his claims unless he is putting all his chips in on the MJO.  Long Range GFS tonight is crap followed by more crap.  Those that tout the MJO may be left disappointed this go around.

I dont tout the long range GFS either.

[cd2play]

I took a brief stroll down Americawx.com Avenue and did read a post about possibly some hope for the second half of February (European monthlies per Jeff Crum comment)

[jmundie]

Looking over the gfs ensembles - I think the storm that many thought would bring severe actually has a chance at being a snowstorm for the southern plains and/or se. It really depends on the state of the nao at that time. Euro wants to keep the nao neutral to negative for the majority of its 10 day.

Its too early to tell now, but things are starting to show similarities to 59-60. Salvation in the second half.

Like I said earlier, I'm waiting for a bit more op support, but if the mjo phase is correct it would argue for some blocking and cold temps. And with a beastly low coming out of the gulf in 8-10 days, that could be interesting. 

[snowdog]

Looking at the GFS Ensemble mean, it looks like a west based NAO sets up in the long range but a)it isn't all that strong and b) the PV is back closer to the pole so it actually set-up north of the block.  Would have been nice to trap that sucker in south Canada south of the block.

Hopefully the models are breaking down the -AO too quickly.   

[jmundie]

Looking at the GFS Ensemble mean, it looks like a west based NAO sets up in the long range but a)it isn't all that strong and b) the PV is back closer to the pole so it actually set-up north of the block.  Would have been nice to trap that sucker in south Canada south of the block.

Hopefully the models are breaking down the -AO too quickly.

I hope so too. I'd say, if the MJO modeling is correct, we'll end up with some sort of blocking. the reason I'll take the MJO forecast over teleconnections and other such things is that the MJO is forecasting convection in certain locations... a less complex thing to forecast. But because the convection somehow effects the overall weather patterns - if you get accurate MJO forecasts, the modeling will generally come around to solutions that make sense for the corresponding anomalies.

[snowdog]

I've never used the MJO too much.  Looked at it a few minutes ago and saw the CMCens went from phase 8 into the CoD, as did the op GFS.  Euro and GFSens seem to take it around through Phase 2. 

[jmundie]

I've never used the MJO too much.  Looked at it a few minutes ago and saw the CMCens went from phase 8 into the CoD, as did the op GFS.  Euro and GFSens seem to take it around through Phase 2.

Yeah - that's a recent development. I'm just learning about it myself. However, from what I've seen, it could enter the circle of death and come back around to phase 8, which would not be bad, would be consistent with a neutral pna and negative nao, with the coldest temps along the east and especially new england. Possibly another miller a threat in that timeframe.

We'll see I guess.

[cd2play]

So hopefully Mon Nite/Tues AM will NOT be our last chance for the winter?