Winter 2011-2012 trend/forecast discussion.

[Crockett]

My first PRELIMINARY fall/winter outlook, this is all based on the -PDO -NAO -AO -QBO mixed with a weak Nina ENSO condition and a couple of analogs that I prefer with some climo.

I come up with a active to very active subtropical jet with a persistent trough over the eastern US, but I have come to a conlusion that the PNA will stay more negative again this winter due to the -PDO and -QBO combination.

I feel like the Apps runner will be the most dominant storm track this winter (Great for west TN folk) with a few more than normal Miller b's also I would think. Anyways these are very preliminary and should be taken very lightly this far out as alot can change between now and fall.

I just couldnt resist an early outlook during this boring wx pattern. My long range winter outlook last year was pretty decent but I messed up on the Mid atlantic area. Going to be fun talking about winter in the next few months and I look forward to discussing it with all of you.



Temp outlook
Dark blue=Much below normal
Light Blue=Below normal
Grey=Normal
Red=Above to much above normal








Precip outlook

Dark green=Much above normal
Light Green=Above normal
Grey=Normal
Red=Below to much below normal



Main storm tracks late fall thru winter

I just can't shake the gut feeling that we're in for another cold and snowy winter in this region. That's based on absolutely nothing scientific, just a feeling...although if the NAO and AO continue to be predominately negative, coupled with a near-neutral ENSO, that certainly bodes well for Southern snow lovers.

Like you, I tend to think the PNA will remain predominately negative due to the -PDO. As we saw last year that doesn't really hurt the chances for strong winter storms in these parts but it could prevent the extreme cold that, as has already been mentioned in this thread, we haven't seen in quite some time.

It's way too soon to know how the teleconnections are going to line up but it's going to be interesting to see how things shape up as September and October approach.

[jmundie]

Toot if your storm tracks are right, middle Tennessee is in the screw zone for snow. Jackpot areas would be little rock to Paducah and Huntsville to johnson city.

Kinda like last year.

Can we please get another winter like 84-85. I was only an infant, so I have to rely on stories from my parents and the YouTube videos that curt put up.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Toot if your storm tracks are right, middle Tennessee is in the screw zone for snow. Jackpot areas would be little rock to Paducah and Huntsville to johnson city.

Kinda like last year.

Can we please get another winter like 84-85. I was only an infant, so I have to rely on stories from my parents and the YouTube videos that curt put up.

Those subtropical storm tracks are just a ruff estimate of what I think will be the main paths of LPS's. They could easily slide 75-150 miles west or east due to  my margin of error. I do think that the Apps Runner will be the more dominant track of choice this winter, which is notorious for screwing Middle and East TN by putting both areas in the warm sector of winter cyclones, but there are exceptions to that rule. That said, there will definately be some Miller a's and b's this winter also.

I expect this winter to be alot like last winter, but with the neutral to weak Nina ENSO expected and a -NAO, the subtropical jet will be much more active than last year, which is a good thing for snow.

This winter has good potential to be better than the last. We are in a cooling phase of the PDO and winters are going to be pretty good around here for years to come IMO.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Can we please get another winter like 84-85. I was only an infant, so I have to rely on stories from my parents and the YouTube videos that curt put up.

Its not out of the question





Because it had a Negtive NAO and a mostly negative PNA which was slightly positive at the start of winter and it was also a Nina but a little stronger than the weak Nina im expecting by winter. But something simular to the 84-85 winter is certainly not out of the question

[Adam]

Toot if your storm tracks are right, middle Tennessee is in the screw zone for snow. Jackpot areas would be little rock to Paducah and Huntsville to johnson city.

Kinda like last year.

Can we please get another winter like 84-85. I was only an infant, so I have to rely on stories from my parents and the YouTube videos that curt put up.

I want to see curt's videos can i have a link?

[vanster67]

   Hey all.  We here in Monterey had a pretty good winter last year.  Some decent snowfall.  Hope that this coming winter is even better.

[harlequin]

I want to see curt's videos can i have a link?

http://www.youtube.com/user/cbpharmd

That's his user channel.

[snowdog]

Enjoying the discussion guys.  Always nice to dream about cold and snow during the dog days of summer. 

[bugalou]

http://www.youtube.com/user/cbpharmd

That's his user channel.

gah those 1985 videos are the dirtiest of hardcore weather porn.  While I was alive then and do remember the snow, I was only 4 and certainly was not the weather geek I am now. I hope this winter can be something special.

[Curt]

http://www.youtube.com/user/cbpharmd

That's his user channel.

Glad to get some hits (finally). I think you guys are the only ones.

[SuperCell]

I want this next winter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBnzscR6q0Y

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I think you guys are the only ones.

Nope, I cruise by your channel on occasion also 

[tsmith7101]

gah those 1985 videos are the dirtiest of hardcore weather porn.  While I was alive then and do remember the snow, I was only 4 and certainly was not the weather geek I am now. I hope this winter can be something special.

HAHAHAH! 

Nothing like the Blizzard of 93'  --I grew up in WNC and we got pounded by that one! The snow on the backdeck was waiste deep!  No JOKE! and snow was about  14" inches on the roads. That was the one and only time I experienced thunder and lightning in a snow storms-  It was crazy!   

[Cyclonicjunkie]

HAHAHAH! 

Nothing like the Blizzard of 93'  --I grew up in WNC and we got pounded by that one! The snow on the backdeck was waiste deep!  No JOKE! and snow was about  14" inches on the roads. That was the one and only time I experienced thunder and lightning in a snow storms-  It was crazy!

Agreed, I was living at the foot of the smokies then near Sevierville TN. I was a young teen and I will probably never see anything like that again. It is the KING to this day....I had just shy of three feet of snow in my yard.

I consider this the dirtiest snow porn on youtube.

http://youtu.be/T_yQbxwm45Y

[Kevin]

I want this next winter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBnzscR6q0Y

Whenever I watch that video I can't help but think how out of sync BMX was with everybody else with those AL watches/warnings/advisories.