AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2006
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUES)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPR LOW DRIFTING WEST OVER S CAROLINA.
08/00Z MODELS SHIFT IT SOUTH LATER TODAY. SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE IN THE PLATEAU. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP ACR REMAINDER
OF MID TN. WARMER MAV MOS ON TARGET.
SFC LOW PRES AND H5 RIDGING FM S PLAINS TO OH VLY TEND TO SUPPORT
WARMER MOS TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS40 SOUNDING
DATA SHOW MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TUES...BUT WILL KEEP IT PARTLY
CLOUDY. NIL POPS LOOK BEST MON NIGHT-TUES BASED ON LOW GFS40 PCPN
EFFICIENCIES.
MAJOR WARM ADVECTION TUES NIGHT. NAM12 +100KT SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES
INTO S TN VLY...SCATTERED TSTORMS A POSSIBILITY TUES NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
STRONG POLAR JET (+140 KTS) DROP SOUTH OVER THE OH VLY WED AND
PUSHES A MAJOR COLD FRONT ACR MID TN WED. POPS INCREASED MOST
AREAS INTO THU. THUNDER SHOULD END THU. POST FRONTAL GFS40 H8
TEMPERATURES SHARPLY DECREASE TO -8 C THU NIGHT/FRI. SO KEPT THE
FAR EXTENDED MUCH COLDER. COULD BE AN EARLY FREEZE IF LATER MODEL
DATA SIMILAR. SOME TEMP MODERATION NEXT WEEKEND.
