Drier days ahead?

[chaser2b]

Looking at the pattern over the next week or two. I'm not seeing any major chances for a wash out and temperatures seem to be climbing quick. Is this the beginning of possibly another unbearable 07, 2010 like summer? Or could we have a more "normal" type summer like 09 seemed to be. Guess we will just have to wait and see.

[jmundie]

Looking at the pattern over the next week or two. I'm not seeing any major chances for a wash out and temperatures seem to be climbing quick. Is this the beginning of possibly another unbearable 07, 2010 like summer? Or could we have a more "normal" type summer like 09 seemed to be. Guess we will just have to wait and see.

Summer 09 was pretty chilly wasn't it? Wasn't 09 the year that we had highs in the low 60s right around july 4th? And it didn't get above 90 for all of July?

[toastido]

Looking at the pattern over the next week or two. I'm not seeing any major chances for a wash out and temperatures seem to be climbing quick. Is this the beginning of possibly another unbearable 07, 2010 like summer? Or could we have a more "normal" type summer like 09 seemed to be. Guess we will just have to wait and see.

Climatalogically speaking, May is when the weather makers start moving more towards the Midwest and the plains.  The weather pattern around this part of the country becomes rather benign, and as we move further into May and June, start seeing the chances for the rogue afternoon pop-up storm with high winds and hail. 

If last weeks system was Springs final hurrah for this area, man, that was one heck of a way to go out!

[InMemphis]

The Summer of 2009 featured a lot of severe weather.

[NorthMsTwister]

Two ef-2s in Olive Branch that summer.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Im expecting a cooler than normal Summer for quite a few years now mainly due to the -pdo.

[Bigm33]

Really hoping we have a somewhat cool summer...last summer was almost unbearable even for someone who has lived in west TN all his life 

[Crockett]

Summer 09 was pretty chilly wasn't it? Wasn't 09 the year that we had highs in the low 60s right around july 4th? And it didn't get above 90 for all of July?

Yep. I don't think I would call the summer of '09 "normal." Maybe "the summer that wasn't."

I'm afraid we're in for a repeat of '09 but I hope not.

[tennessee storm09]

Really hoping we have a somewhat cool summer...last summer was almost unbearable even for someone who has lived in west TN all his life 

i got a feeling we are headiing toward a summer more like 08. hot n very dry.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

I am almost certain that we will be having one of the coolest summers in years.  Let's take June '03, July '09, and August '04 - not always cool, could also be quite hot at times, but way more record lows than record highs will be set.  I could be wrong but, based on current trends, I think we will be seeing a -NAO with a neutral PNA and a -PDO along with an -AO most of this summer, which would, if nothing else, guarantee a high degree of variability and storminess like we saw back in '09, and if these effects are strong enough, give us a very unusual summer, almost May-like for much of the season.

I don't know what implications that would have on the cicada population, but my guess is that they would go underground sooner or the populations would be culled some this year.

[Crockett]

I am almost certain that we will be having one of the coolest summers in years.  Let's take June '03, July '09, and August '04 - not always cool, could also be quite hot at times, but way more record lows than record highs will be set.  I could be wrong but, based on current trends, I think we will be seeing a -NAO with a neutral PNA and a -PDO along with an -AO most of this summer, which would, if nothing else, guarantee a high degree of variability and storminess like we saw back in '09, and if these effects are strong enough, give us a very unusual summer, almost May-like for much of the season.

I don't know what implications that would have on the cicada population, but my guess is that they would go underground sooner or the populations would be culled some this year.

I don't disagree with the assertion that this will not be an unusually hot summer, but I'm not sure whether I see any indications that lead me to believe it will be our coolest summer in years. The NAO has been largely positive since January...which may or may not be primarily the effect of a La Nina that is now rapidly diminishing. But even if it flips and is predominately negative this summer, it was also negative last summer with no real impact on our weather here in the South. Same with the AO. The -PDO is a given, but, again, the same was true with last summer.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

I don't disagree with the assertion that this will not be an unusually hot summer, but I'm not sure whether I see any indications that lead me to believe it will be our coolest summer in years. The NAO has been largely positive since January...which may or may not be primarily the effect of a La Nina that is now rapidly diminishing. But even if it flips and is predominately negative this summer, it was also negative last summer with no real impact on our weather here in the South. Same with the AO. The -PDO is a given, but, again, the same was true with last summer.

Things are different this year though.  It "feels" different even apart from anything scientific.

And last year was more abnormally humid than hot; while it was a hot summer, the humidity was what people felt, I think -- it wasn't a searing OMGWTFBBQ heat like in 2007.

[Crockett]

Things are different this year though. 

In what way? Not disagreeing with you, necessarily; just wondering what your reasoning is.

FWIW, the CPC says cooler to the north, hotter to the south and EC for us here in TN through July.

[Susan]

Things are different this year though.  It "feels" different even apart from anything scientific.

So you are predicting a cooler than normal summer, based in part on how it "feels" right now, , 43 days from the first day of summer?

Of course, you are entitled to your base it on whatever, it is your prediction.

[Eric]

I'm gonna tell ya....from where I sit, and after the work that we've done outside today, I've gotta give MY prediction on what this summer's going to feel like:

OMGWTFBBQ hot

Even though it's only 85F/63F with a RH of 49%....it's dang near sweltering. 



Or it could just be my wienie-ness coming out.