Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)

[Tornado 73]

SPC mcs discussion says it should take another hour or two for line to catch up to supercells.

[bugalou]

Holy crap you can hear the wind on air on the THV stream.

[Kevin]

SPC mcs discussion says it should take another hour or two for line to catch up to supercells.

That should be enough for the MEG area to escape this strong/violent threat. What a massive stroke of luck if this happens...we'll have to see....

[MrOysterhead]

Holy crap you can hear the wind on air on the THV stream.

I def. heard that!

[Kevin]

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
  NORTH CENTRAL WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 743 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
  RADAR WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO.  THIS
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF MT VERNON...OR 17 MILES NORTH
  OF CABOT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS VIOLENT TORNADO INCLUDE...
  STEPROCK...           PANGBURN...           WILBURN...
  SUNNYDALE...          SIDON...              LETONA...
  HICKORY FLAT...       DEWEY...              CLAY...
  ALBION...             WEST PANGBURN...      WELLS BOTTOM...
  SNELL...              RAMSEY LANDING...     RAINBOW ISLAND...
  MT PISGAH...          MCJESTER...           MAGNESS LAKE...

A CHURCH WAS DESTROYED BY THIS TORNADO AND OTHER STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
HAS BEEN REPORTED IN VILONIA.

[Kevin]

The cell coming out of the Little Rock radar site is rapidly organizing...will likely produce any moment if not already...

[Kevin]

The Vilonia cell may be in first stages of occlusion...need to wait another scan or two...the LR cell while producing will be absorbed sooner than the Northern one...so it may be a short-term threat...

[beneficii]

That should be enough for the MEG area to escape this strong/violent threat. What a massive stroke of luck if this happens...we'll have to see....

Here is the part of the MCD relevant to MEG:

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE ANALYZED OVER SERN AR...MAINTAINING BACKED
   SFC WINDS WITH 300-500 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH.  AS LLJ STRENGTHENS
   DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD ENLARGE FURTHER
   ACROSS SRN AR...NRN LA EWD TOWARD NWRN MS AND WRN TN. RELATED WAA
   AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY DISPERSE RELATIVE DRY POCKETS NOW
   ANALYZED AT SFC OVER PORTIONS NRN LA AND WRN MS...LEADING TO MORE
   UNIFORM FIELD OF MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500 J/KG OVER ERN AR TO 2000
   J/KG IN NRN LA...AMIDST 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

Even if a QLCS forms, I still would not dismiss the tornado threat.

[Kevin]

Vilonia police reporting 1/2 mile wide damage path in their city...

[Timothy]

An unconfirmed tornado near Jacksonville,AR

[Kevin]

Here is the part of the MCD relevant to MEG:

Even if a QLCS forms, I still would not dismiss the tornado threat.

Oh...I agree...but a QLCS is not going to produce potential EF4+ monsters...we're back to brief spin-ups within a damaging straight line threat...I'd certainly rather have the latter.

[Kevin]

Reports of injuries at a church that was hit in Pulaski County...this is separate from earlier reports of a church destroyed in Vilonia...

[Kevin]

Scanner reports (NOTE: Often unreliable) indicate there's not much left in Vilonia...very sobering tone from dispatchers...

[Johnny]

The cell out of Little rock definitely rapping up!

[Kevin]

LR storm now being absorbed...circulation notably weaker now (still present).

So far...no circulations in the QLCS...its also a pretty thin line...not sure how that effects the wind/tornado threat...