Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)

[Thundersnow]

. What about timing issues? If the spc d5 box stays put wouldn't it push through here in the next morning?

I suspect there's enough uncertainly in timing at this range where a frontal passage could occur anywhere between peak heating and the wee hours of the morning at this point.  It's probably a little bit early to nail down timing.  The SPC text says Monday/Monday night severe threat for the Arklatex region.  Depending on the movement of the system, that might mean during the day on Tuesday.

Or, we might find out that models are either too slow or too fast with this system as we get closer.

[tsmith7101]

I suspect there's enough uncertainly in timing at this range where a frontal passage could occur anywhere between peak heating and the wee hours of the morning at this point.  It's probably a little bit early to nail down timing.  The SPC text says Monday/Monday night severe threat for the Arklatex region.  Depending on the movement of the system, that might mean during the day on Tuesday.

Or, we might find out that models are either too slow or too fast with this system as we get closer.

If it pushes through Memphis in morning, It will be pushing through nashville in the afternoon-  Not good

[Kevin]

If it pushes through Memphis in morning, It will be pushing through nashville in the afternoon-  Not good

Of course it could change...but right now to me (as indicated) this looks like an evening threat for the Memphis/MEG area...and more overnight/morning for Nashville...for both days...but again obviously this could change.

[Thundersnow]

If it pushes through Memphis in morning, It will be pushing through nashville in the afternoon-  Not good

The point is... we don't know the time of passage for either Memphis or Nashville at this point.  We probably need to get a couple of days closer before we have a better idea.

[tsmith7101]

The point is... we don't know the time of passage for either Memphis or Nashville at this point.  We probably need to get a couple of days closer before we have a better idea.

Yeah that is true, Does anyone have any ideas yet on what may be driving this one? Is there anything like an outflow boundary to trigger it. Or is just too early to say yet....... 

[NorthMsTwister]

Thanks guys, i should have read the write up. In a rush this morning .

[Kevin]

Yeah that is true, Does anyone have any ideas yet on what may be driving this one? Is there anything like an outflow boundary to trigger it. Or is just too early to say yet....... 

Outflow boundaries are a mesoscale process that we won't have any handle on their presence and impacts until literally hours before we see things unfold. We can't pick them out on model data. Right now this is a classically driven low pressure system with a broad based upper trough and associated dynamics.

[Kevin]

Thanks guys, i should have read the write up. In a rush this morning .

No worries. Fact is we shouldn't be too concerned with timing yet...that's to be pinned down later...and this could be one of those events where timing may not have a significant impact on severe chances anyway (could impact things like storm mode and such...but just way too soon to say for sure).

[Shanti]

Yup! France is definitely looking better and better..  ...Guess Its time to buy that generator I've been wanting for some time now..The last thing we need is another flooding event..oh no just remembered I'm suppose to be driving towards Memphis on Tuesday night..that might change now..time will tell..

[CT_Yankee]

Can you guys do me a favor and make this a daytime event over here?   Thanks.   
 

[Milodog2]

Henry Margusity over on accuweather is acting like next week could be a super outbreak. Says between monday and thursday could be up to 200 tornados. Is this what you guys a seeing also?

[Curt]

AFD Memphis

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER...ALMOST IDENTICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WILL GIVE THE MIDSOUTH A GOOD SHOT AT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ONE OR BOTH BEING SIGNIFICANT
OUTBREAKS - PARTICULARLY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS EACH NIGHT AND
LENGTHENS THE HODOGRAPHS. PROLONGED FETCH OF MOISTURE LADEN AIR
SHOULD BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. STORM
MODE AND TIMING ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE DYNAMICS AND
SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO HIGHER END EVENTS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

[Curt]

Henry Margusity over on accuweather is acting like next week could be a super outbreak. Says between monday and thursday could be up to 200 tornados. Is this what you guys a seeing also?

You know to provide a doomsday scenario at this juncture is irresponsible. If we see the same parameters Sunday night, it would certainly be more prudent to heed some caution. But even then to predict 200 tornadoes is well....ridiculous...esp at this point.

Bottom line, severe looks likely Mon/Tues, and there is potential for a higher end event as well.

[Thundersnow]

Henry Margusity over on accuweather is acting like next week could be a super outbreak.

Not to diminish the potential threat of this storm system, but I wouldn't put much stock in Accuweather hyping an event.  They call for storms rivaling Superstorm '93 and Superoutbreak '74 multiple times every year, it seems like.  

[tennessee storm09]

tell you after just getting off work a min ago. glancing at models ... o super outbreak is very possible. whats kind of eary is, the through is close being the same setup in the april 74 event. the jst may not be quite as strong. but bottom line there is reason of being very concerned