Super Outbreak 2011 (April 25-28)

[tsmith7101]

Okay, I'm not sure if this even merits it yet but I'm gonna go ahead and start a thread for Thursday April 20th. NWS OHX has issued 50% chance of T-Storms- Based off of my limited knowledge. Here are my thoughts, please feel free to comment.

I see no significant CAPE or LI, Dewpoints look okay and Temps and I think if I am reading it right from twisterdata, I see a weaker cap at mid levels.  

So, Here it goes, Let see if I win or fail on this one.... I see us getting some T-storms but because we have no CAPE or LI, these will not be supercells? So any convection we get won't produce copious amounts of storms with more instabilty......       Nashville has little chance of severe, better chance to the south?      

[toastido]

Day 2 outlook (for tomorrow (21st)):

  DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
   TO OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
   NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
   OCCURS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH UPPER 50S F TO MIDDLE
   60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF
   A MODESTLY SHARPENING SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE.
   
   HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR WHAT COULD BE A MULTI-ROUND OF
   SEVERE HAIL /LIKELY THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR THE PERIOD/...WITH THE
   GREATEST CERTAINTY/COVERAGE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   INITIALLY...ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...ARE
   LIKELY TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
   ADJACENT ARKLATEX/OZARKS. A PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY
   MAINTAIN SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED
   BASIS...DURING THE DAY TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWARD RETURNING
   SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE/ATTENDANT MOIST SECTOR.
   
   FARTHER SOUTHWEST...ACROSS WESTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN TX...A
   RELATIVELY STRONG CAP COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED MODEST LARGE SCALE
   FORCING COINCIDENT WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE PROVIDES
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF ANY SURFACE BASED
   TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
   VARIABILITY ALSO STILL EXISTS AT THIS JUNCTURE REGARDING THE DRYLINE
   POSITION AND THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE NORTHWARD RETURNING MOIST
   SECTOR. BUT PROVIDED ISOLATED SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
   POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS GRAZE THE REGION AND A
   50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY DEVELOPS...THE MOST LIKELY/HIGHEST
   CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS FOR TSTMS TO INCREASE AFTER DARK WITHIN A
   CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
   LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. GIVEN MODERATE ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH AMPLE SHEAR
   THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ...INTERIOR GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY ALONG THE STALLING
   WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY...THE
   DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PULSE-TYPE
   WIND/HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAIN
   DESTABILIZATION...COMBINED WITH NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE
   FORCING/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...PRECLUDES SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...CENTRAL ROCKIES TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   TIED TO THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH TSTMS INCREASING
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
   OF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM UT INTO NORTHERN
   CO/SOUTHERN WY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT MODEST
   PW/POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT REMOTE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/20/2011

[tsmith7101]

geez

[Eric]

I guess I'll say it....does this "threat" even warrant a thread?   

Anywho, here's my take.  I've seen piles of doggie doo that have more potential for us than this system.  One, there's a ENE surface wind component.  Two, dew points are in the 40Fs.  Three, there's a 1020+mb HP sitting over the Great Lakes.  Four, lifted indices are WAY positive.  Five, there's hardly any energy coming through the 500mb level.  Six, there's almost a ridge-like amplitude at the H5 level.  Seven, the upper level jet structure is way north of here, so we get no upper level help.  Eight, it looks like we're going to be socked in with a cloud deck given the saturation levels at H7.

The only thing this "event" has going for it is little to no convective inhibition, but without all the other party goers, it means very little.

 

[tsmith7101]

I guess I'll say it....does this "threat" even warrant a thread?   

Anywho, here's my take.  I've seen piles of doggie doo that have more potential for us than this system.  One, there's a ENE surface wind component.  Two, dew points are in the 40Fs.  Three, there's a 1020+mb HP sitting over the Great Lakes.  Four, lifted indices are WAY positive.  Five, there's hardly any energy coming through the 500mb level.  Six, there's almost a ridge-like amplitude at the H5 level.  Seven, the upper level jet structure is way north of here, so we get no upper level help.  Eight, it looks like we're going to be socked in with a cloud deck given the saturation levels at H7.

The only thing this "event" has going for it is little to no convective inhibition, but without all the other party goers, it means very little.

 

glad I'm not the only one seeing this as a bust- 

[Eric]

glad I'm not the only one seeing this as a bust- 

It's not really a bust when there's little to no potential for anything.  It's a non-event....not a bust.

[Curt]

Its a ways off, but next Monday and Tuesdays threat probably deserves a thread more so than tomorrow and Sat.

[Kevin]

Its a ways off, but next Monday and Tuesdays threat probably deserves a thread more so than tomorrow and Sat.

I agree...and because of that...I think we can transition this thread to include both possibilities just in case something still pops up later this week.

[tsmith7101]

Thanks!

[Crockett]

Never missing an opportunity to hype, Accuweather.com is predicting 300 more tornadoes for the South over the next two weeks.

Henry Margusity made the prediction in a blog post, then Accuweather formulated a news release that was emailed to reporters predicting the same. Of course, without the major outbreak over the weekend, such predictions are never made. But since Accuweather realizes that everyone is tuned in to what's happening weather-wise right now...

[Eric]

Looking at some of the data for next Tuesday, if I'm reading it right (which is ALWAYS up for debate), it could be potentially a red latter day for folks in and around the ArkLaTex.  We're still several model runs away from getting a clear picture, but the signs are there...... 

[tennessee storm09]

latest model data is indicating a big time severe event along with some flooding issues as well. this one will need to be 

[harlequin]

Wow, the midnight run of the GFS had 8.3 inches of rain in Memphis in the next 180 hours (most near the latter end of the run). Probably won't happen, but wow...

[Crockett]

I wish whoever is praying for these storms and rain would stop so I can get a garden in the ground. 

[DocB]

I wish whoever is praying for these storms and rain would stop so I can get a garden in the ground. 

I'll second that! I just want a weekend where I don't have to mow