Strength of El Nino and effect on middle TN winters

[Woodvegas]

I reviewed the winter data for Nashville since 1950 and this is what I came up with...

Weak El Nino years: 5 out of 6 years snowfall was above normal and 4 out of 6 were colder than normal. There were on average more artic outbreaks and more days with temps at or below 10F. (Years=1963-64, 69-70, 76-77, 77-78, 87-88, and 2004-05)

Moderate El Nino years: On average snowfall was slightly above normal but variable. 3 out of 5 years snowfall was above normal. Temps were normal to slightly below normal. (Years=1965-66, 68-69, 86-87, 94-95, 2002-03)

Strong El Nino: Snowfall was below normal 4 out of 5 years and temps were on average above normal. (Years=1957-58, 72-73, 82-83, 91-92, 1997-98 )

As a side note, when November temps were above normal (all years since 1950) snowfall was less than normal about 80% of the time.

Weak El Nino=ONI +0.5 to +0.8 (Dec., Jan., and Feb. composite)
Moderate El Nino=ONI +1.0 to +1.3
Strong El Nino=ONI +1.6 to +2.4

[servocrow]

I am so glad you did this..THANKS!!  I was wondering....Because it DOES make sense that during a weak El Nino year that our snow fall would be higher...

I'm hopeful...

Now, I gotta get back to the Severe Programming...already in progress!!

[Woodvegas]

I am so glad you did this..THANKS!!  I was wondering....Because it DOES make sense that during a weak El Nino year that our snow fall would be higher...

I'm hopeful...

Now, I gotta get back to the Severe Programming...already in progress!!

You're welcome. Clearly, not all El Ninos are alike and the current one looks to be weak at the moment.  Hopefully, we will have some good winter events this year.  I don't visit the weather boards much except in the winter so I'm just now starting to get back into the swing of things. I am particularly interested in long range forecasting in the winter....I like to know about the big snow or the artic blast before the masses. BTW I work in Rutherford County.

[Thundersnow]

I don't think it's set in stone how an El Niņo will affect our winter.  But, in my experience, a strong one tends to bring milder than normal and wetter than normal winters over all (at least from what I remember from the 1997-8 one).  That can also translate into more severe weather event possibilities in the winter and spring.

We'll just have to wait and see.

But, one of these days, hopefully we'll be due to get some big snowstorms in these parts again.