Early March possible winter weather??

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

I have been looking at the models for a couple days...

Teleconnections ARE NOT lining up to support any probability of winter weather during the next 7-11 days.  However the teleconnective indices are indicated to trend back toward neutral levels after ~March 6th, for at least a few days.  Interestingly enough, though, some of the models are hinting at the chance, at least, of a marginal-to-mild-severity winter weather event around this time.

I emphasize that there are not enough ensembles on board, much less any consistent model runs, to confirm the existence of said event.  Generally, I think that it wouldn't happen, and that any anomaly from the current zonal pattern represents a complete dereliction of common sense.  However, being this far out, noting the forecasted (and therefore theoretical) change in the aforementioned indices, and also that the last three winters have given us winter weather in the first week or so of March (yes, I know historical precedent does not apply to weather), I think we should at least have periodic checks of this situation in the coming days.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

Alright, continuing to monitor these indices here...

We are really starting to see a +PNA, mounting evidence for a -NAO, and an AO that could be neutral...more later...

[CT_Yankee]

Hopefully OHX is right....

THE CHANGE TO A POSITIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION OVER RECENT WEEKS HAS
DEFINITELY PUT US IN A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND WARMTH. EXTENDED PROGS
SHOW LITTLE, IF ANY, CHANGE IN THE PREVAILING WEATHER PATTERNS
THROUGH MID-MARCH. SO, IF WE KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSSED, WE MAY FIND
THAT OURS DAYS IN THE DEEP FREEZE, THAT WE ENDURED DURING THE
FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE WINTER, MAY INDEED BE OVER. IN ITS PLACE,
WE MAY OURSELVES IN SOGGY BOTTOM.

[Kevin]

Hopefully OHX is right....

As a side note to that...good to see OHX violating NWS policy in their AFD by using commas in the entire product instead of ellipses! 

[tennessee storm09]

going to say winter is over , outside of some cooler spells behind some of these potent cold fronts, i say get ready for some svere actiion in earnest. i am ready for a high end day, one that actually works out for us for a change not a bust.

[CT_Yankee]

As a side note to that...good to see OHX violating NWS policy in their AFD by using commas in the entire product instead of ellipses! 

Why are they picky about that?

[Kevin]

Why are they picky about that?

Its just been the way its been...a long long holdover from the teletype days when that was the only way they could send the text out. NWS is supposed to be reviewing dropping this standard in the coming year...to allow small/mixed caps and other punctuations.

[Thundersnow]

Its just been the way its been...a long long holdover from the teletype days when that was the only way they could send the text out. NWS is supposed to be reviewing dropping this standard in the coming year...to allow small/mixed caps and other punctuations.

Bummer... I'll miss the familiar urgency of the all caps regardless of the real urgency.

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING FAIR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.

 

 

[Kevin]

Bummer... I'll miss the familiar urgency of the all caps regardless of the real urgency.

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING FAIR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.

 

 

LOL! 

[WFayetteTN]

Bummer... I'll miss the familiar urgency of the all caps regardless of the real urgency.

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING FAIR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.

 

 

THIS, my friend, is going into my signature file.
     for you.

[toastido]

Bummer... I'll miss the familiar urgency of the all caps regardless of the real urgency.

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING FAIR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.

 

 

Or as Reed Timmer would say... "DOMINATE DOMINATE DOMINATE!"

[muleyman]

going to say winter is over , outside of some cooler spells behind some of these potent cold fronts, i say get ready for some svere actiion in earnest. i am ready for a high end day, one that actually works out for us for a change not a bust.

 yea cant wait either(sarcasm), not trying to start the same ole argument over but i mean its great and all to be interested when it happens , but to actually hope fror it come on.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

yea cant wait either(sarcasm), not trying to start the same ole argument over but i mean its great and all to be interested when it happens , but to actually hope fror it come on.

[muleyman]

oh well dude its true im not against enjoying severe weather , just dont hope for it sorry. i mean for the site as a whole it would be better to not turn off people who would come here to find out more about weather than to honestly give them a feeling that some people are out here with bad hopes. it gives the wrong impression. Some of you say all the time more people should be aware well then if they are here be more compassionate to them as well.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

STOP HIJACKING MY FREAKIN THREADS WITH THIS CRAP ARGUMENT!!!!!!  I would rather any argument other than this!  I am so tired of it!

I wanted this to be a scientific thread...but NO.  Every freakin time dude.  Every freakin time.  Give it a rest.  This is not a presidential debate, it's a weather forum.  Unless I start a thread about winter vs. severe (about the same probability as God sinning), leave it be, unless it ties in SPECIFICALLY to the system at hand...