Winter Weather Gone?

[McKinley Fairbanks]

   Was this the last of it? We still have February to get through, another 2 weeks. I was just curious about what peoples thoughts are.  I am in Middle Tennessee and grew up in the 60's with much the sme kind of Winter weather as we had this year.  I think this is a cyclical thing.

[Kevin]

Major pattern shift is underway over the next few days...one that will lead to quite mild and mostly dry weather for at least the next 2 weeks...perhaps longer. Possibly a storm threat or two...but wouldn't be of winter weather concerns if they happen. Can't completely rule out a March Surprise (like an ULL-type system) but the pattern for the remainder of the season doesn't look to be supportive of the synoptic-scale winter storms in the South we've seen for the last month.

[beth]

Major pattern shift is underway over the next few days...one that will lead to quite mild and mostly dry weather for at least the next 2 weeks...perhaps longer. Possibly a storm threat or two...but wouldn't be of winter weather concerns if they happen. Can't completely rule out a March Surprise (like an ULL-type system) but the pattern for the remainder of the season doesn't look to be supportive of the synoptic-scale winter storms in the South we've seen for the last month.

I have enjoyed this wintery weather this year! But,,,I am quite ready for some mild and warmer weather.  A short little blast of winter weather would be ok in March, as long as it only lasts a day.  It's been a fun time with all of you on the forum this winter!  Even though we didn't set records,,it was still a blast!

[Susan]

[Cyclonicjunkie]

While winter has had its back broken, I would expect it will make a shortlived comeback for a week or two if climo has anything to do with it, probably around the end of Feb. This time of year is a real juicy time where you have warm, and cold air masses living close to each other which can produce heavy snows if synoptic conditions will allow.

[JayCee]

Major pattern shift is underway over the next few days...one that will lead to quite mild and mostly dry weather for at least the next 2 weeks...perhaps longer. Possibly a storm threat or two...but wouldn't be of winter weather concerns if they happen. Can't completely rule out a March Surprise (like an ULL-type system) but the pattern for the remainder of the season doesn't look to be supportive of the synoptic-scale winter storms in the South we've seen for the last month.

This is bad news for the lingering drought conditions over the Southern Plains, Mid South, and Southeast U.S:   http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html  
I also heard on a farm report last weekend, that while it has been snowy across the Plains, the snow has been an unusually dry snow (much like what fell in the recent event).  In fact, it was stated that much of the snow on the ground has about 50% of the water content of what is "normal" for the Plains.  Going two weeks in February with no significant precipitation is very atypical for our area, and I hope it's not a trend that continues into Spring.   We need some decent late winter storms to wipe out the deficits before we get into the warmer months, and planting season.  

[lyngo]

I'd honestly be surprised if there wasn't 1 more "last hurrah" storm to track before mid-March.  La Nina winters often have some lingering cold at the tail end so I think we'll at least have another opportunity to track.  However, this hasn't been a typical La Nina winter so who knows what will happen. 

[Coach B]

This is bad news for the lingering drought conditions over the Southern Plains, Mid South, and Southeast U.S:   http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html  
I also heard on a farm report last weekend, that while it has been snowy across the Plains, the snow has been an unusually dry snow (much like what fell in the recent event).  In fact, it was stated that much of the snow on the ground has about 50% of the water content of what is "normal" for the Plains.  Going two weeks in February with no significant precipitation is very atypical for our area, and I hope it's not a trend that continues into Spring.   We need some decent late winter storms to wipe out the deficits before we get into the warmer months, and planting season.  

People don't seem to notice the dryness during the winter.  I had a pond redone last fall and it still has not refilled due to the lack of rainfall and the dry snow.  In a normal year it would have easily been full by the 1st of the year. 

[keithinala]

GFS  has a huge ice storm around the 23rd/24th for Nashville and Huntsville, with almost an inch of ice. Haven't checked outher places, but, ugh.
Edit: Memphis definately would be hammered too.

[Mathman]

James Spann mentioned that the NAO is currently forecast to go neutral toward the end of the month. 

[lyngo]

James Spann mentioned that the NAO is currently forecast to go neutral toward the end of the month. 

This late in the season, I'm not sure a neutral NAO would help us...UNLESS we had some very strong ridging along the west coast.  It'll also be harder to hold off the SE Ridge given that we're heading into late winter.

[Thundersnow]

GFS  has a huge ice storm around the 23rd/24th for Nashville and Huntsville, with almost an inch of ice. Haven't checked outher places, but, ugh.
Edit: Memphis definately would be hammered too.

Can't rule out some cool or cold snaps, but my guess is that the GFS is dealing with its cold bias in the long range at this point.  I have a feeling the next few weeks will be more like the business as usual winters we had seen in previous years, unless the AO/NAO come back around to what we had been seeing for most of this winter.

The GFS will show its 300+ hour storms only for us to see the moderation as we get closer in time, mostly likely, in my opinion.

[mempho]

This late in the season, I'm not sure a neutral NAO would help us...UNLESS we had some very strong ridging along the west coast.  It'll also be harder to hold off the SE Ridge given that we're heading into late winter.

Hard to say, but it is interesting considering we've been in a long-term -NAO regime.  From a longer-term climate standpoint, the possibility of the +NAO phase just being short and temporary is very interesting and could mean that we might continue to see long neutral to -NAO phases only to be interrupted by short and transient +NAO phases.  If this trend continues along the lines of decades long ago, we could be (and I'm stressing "could") be have witnessed a long-term climatological shift over the past few years.  However, the certainty of these things can only be assessed in hindsight.

[keithinala]

Can't rule out some cool or cold snaps, but my guess is that the GFS is dealing with its cold bias in the long range at this point.  I have a feeling the next few weeks will be more like the business as usual winters we had seen in previous years, unless the AO/NAO come back around to what we had been seeing for most of this winter.

The GFS will show its 300+ hour storms only for us to see the moderation as we get closer in time, mostly likely, in my opinion.

And the 12Z was warmer, just a lot of rain

[McKinley Fairbanks]

GFS  has a huge ice storm around the 23rd/24th for Nashville and Huntsville, with almost an inch of ice. Haven't checked outher places, but, ugh.
Edit: Memphis definately would be hammered too.


Say it ain't so!