Feb 9 Winter Storm

[keithinala]

GFS is cranking up some good snows followed by brutal cold. Time for a new thread for this.
GFS has 4.9 inches for Huntsville, and noon temps one week from today at 13
BNA 6.8 inches with noon temp of 10
 
Also, 5.3 at Memphis and Muscle Shoals, 3 at Chattanooga, 5.1 at Knoxville

[mempho]

GFS is cranking up some good snows followed by brutal cold. Time for a new thread for this.
GFS has 4.9 inches for Huntsville, and noon temps one week from today at 13
BNA 6.8 inches with noon temp of 10
 
Also, 5.3 at Memphis and Muscle Shoals, 3 at Chattanooga, 5.1 at Knoxville

Min temp of 4F @ KMEM just after hour 168?  Get outta here.  No way.  Hi temp of 14F at KMEM? 

I'm sorry, unless we get some serious backup from other models and some very good consistency, this looks like garbage. 

Sure, it's happened before and been a lot worse than that, but we're looking at about a three deviation event and I would never trust one run or even a couple of runs for that. 

[keithinala]

I think it's very real. The huge snowpack to our north will maybe make it colder than the model says. Even Dan Satterfield, the most conservative TV chief met here posted that temps below 10 and maybe 0 were coming.

Min temp of 4F @ KMEM just after hour 168?  Get outta here.  No way.  Hi temp of 14F at KMEM? 

I'm sorry, unless we get some serious backup from other models and some very good consistency, this looks like garbage. 

Sure, it's happened before and been a lot worse than that, but we're looking at about a three deviation event and I would never trust one run or even a couple of runs for that. 

[mempho]

I think it's very real. The huge snowpack to our north will maybe make it colder than the model says. Even Dan Satterfield, the most conservative TV chief met here posted that temps below 10 and maybe 0 were coming.

Wind chill at KMEM about hour 169 would be taking about 4F ambient temp with a 15 knot wind speed for a wind chill of 15 below zero.  

I don't believe it, but that is pretty insane.  This would be widespread subzero temps in the midsouth.  

Personally, I might have been more inclined to believe it last month, but all of the indicators seem to point towards the opposite occurring. 

[Coach B]

I think it's very real. The huge snowpack to our north will maybe make it colder than the model says. Even Dan Satterfield, the most conservative TV chief met here posted that temps below 10 and maybe 0 were coming.

I hope you are right Keith as I love the extremes and am prepared for it.  However, we've seen several times this year very low temps progged for the 8-12 day timeframe that have turned into just regular old cold.  If we see it in the day 5-6 range I'll put alot more stock in it.

[keithinala]

I hope you are right Keith as I love the extremes and am prepared for it.  However, we've seen several times this year very low temps progged for the 8-12 day timeframe that have turned into just regular old cold.  If we see it in the day 5-6 range I'll put alot more stock in it.

Well put your stock in it. The arctic blast hits in 6 days. Temps one week from now would only be 13 at noon here at Huntsville. We aren't talking 8-12 days.

[Coach B]

Well put your stock in it. The arctic blast hits in 6 days. Temps one week from now would only be 13 at noon here at Huntsville. We aren't talking 8-12 days.

All right you've got my attention...thought it was a little farther out than that. Woodstove is ready for another good long burn and my school system believe it or not has three more snow days left to use.  Bring on at least one more good snow and a nice bout of cold to go with it.   I'm ready.

[lyngo]

All right you've got my attention...thought it was a little farther out than that. Woodstove is ready for another good long burn and my school system believe it or not has three more snow days left to use.  Bring on at least one more good snow and a nice bout of cold to go with it.   I'm ready.

How many total snow days do you get?  Davidson Co. only had 4 believe it or not..

[Cameron K.]

It's a good trend. I like it. It's gonna be 2 maybe 3 days till there's a better idea of how the system will organize, but for now  

[keithinala]

I'm not saying those temps and snow totals are correct, just that even if they are anywhere close to right, it's going to be frigid and whatever snow does fall would stay around, so a one or two inch snow that freezes to the roads and stays around for several days would be worse than 3 or 4 that is slushy on the roads and melts.

[dwagner88]

This is a clipper. I'm gonna leave my eggs out of this particular basket for now.

[keithinala]

Euro is also bringing an arctic blast, but a little later than the GFS.

[Woodvegas]

Euro is also bringing an arctic blast, but a little later than the GFS.

Yeah, the 2/1 12Z ECMWF progs a minimum temp in the single digits next Wednesday night for west and middle TN.

[Coach B]

How many total snow days do you get?  Davidson Co. only had 4 believe it or not..

We built in 10 and have used 7.  Could have used a couple more but we tend to be stingy with them for some reason.  Some systems build in as many as 13.

[keithinala]

We built in 10 and have used 7.  Could have used a couple more but we tend to be stingy with them for some reason.  Some systems build in as many as 13.

And they build in zero here. Insane.