Feb 3-5 Possible Winter Wx

[dwagner88]

The canadian looks almost exactly like the Dgex, still time for trends good or bad, but as of now I say threat on

Have a good night ya'll

Jeez. Can't buy a week off around here this winter! Bring it on!

[Kevin]

Dang, to freakin' bad the GFS shows nothing like this for Memphis area.

If the Euro were to come onboard...I'd come onboard. Until then...just cross fingers that Canadian is onto something for once...

[mempho]

If the Euro were to come onboard...I'd come onboard. Until then...just cross fingers that Canadian is onto something for once...

Probably best to see how the current storm plays out, too....given how the dynamics could really change how things turn out "downstream."

[maryvillereb2003]

Probably best to see how the current storm plays out, too....given how the dynamics could really change how things turn out "downstream."

could the cold snowpack from that storm bring even more cold air south?

[mempho]

could the cold snowpack from that storm bring even more cold air south?

Maybe...but I was thinking more about how this might change the overall atmospheric dynamics.  There are too many maybes for me to say what's good and what's bad at this point.

[Stovepipe]

00z Euro wetter but just a tad too warm to really cash in on snow.  Laying down over an inch of QPF at TYS with 850s ranging from +4.4 to -5.9.

[StormAlertWX]

00z Euro wetter but just a tad too warm to really cash in on snow.  Laying down over an inch of QPF at TYS with 850s ranging from +4.4 to -5.9.

I'm sure about the same @ KCHA?

[shooting70]

Stovepipe,what about around memphis?

[Curt]

Stovepipe,what about around memphis?

Moisture is scant, temps marginal for snow. Maybe a dusting to half inch. Doesnt really matter anyways since temps get to the low to mid 40's afterwards anyways.

[shooting70]

Moisture is scant, temps marginal for snow. Maybe a dusting to half inch. Doesnt really matter anyways since temps get to the low to mid 40's afterwards anyways.

Im thinking our geographic location isnt the best.We miss alot of storms north and west,and south and east more than we think. I cant figure out why we keep most of these models.We could just use one,maybe two at the most. The canadian did a good storm picking up on the nw trend with this upcoming storm,and it verified,but it shows a snow event,but other models with nothing. ::shrug::U would really think the models would be really accurate in this range,four days out,and all agree.

[John1122]

If the Euro were to come onboard...I'd come onboard. Until then...just cross fingers that Canadian is onto something for once...

The Canadian was actually the best model on the last big storm. It stuck with what ended up being the north track for day after day and really took the GFS/Euro to school almost nailing the final track.

[bugalou]

Probably best to see how the current storm plays out, too....given how the dynamics could really change how things turn out "downstream."

My thoughts exactly.  The models will be clueless until the current monster has completed it's evolution.

[jmundie]

I'm fully onboard for this weekend. Canadian and Euro both are cold enough at 850. Canadian appears to have surface temps at or below freezing, Euro surface is a few degrees warmer, but is 33-34 from 925 to the surface.

I think we'll slowly see the GFS come on board with this. The event is fri/sat, so GFS will catch on by 0z tonight I'd imagine.

Looks like a decent 2-5 for most west of the plateau.

[mempho]

Im thinking our geographic location isnt the best.We miss alot of storms north and west,and south and east more than we think.

Memphis is fairly well-positioned as far as southern cities go but it is in the southeast.  I think if you'll look back at the records, you'll discover that the current dry run has not always been the case.  The thing about these storms is that they're so rare and , in the long-term, it's basically just luck (or fate or the hand of God or whatever).

[Stovepipe]

Is that a southern slider I see on the 06z DGEX?  Looks like it interacts with the clipper on the 8th giving TN another nice hit of snow.