Feb 3-5 Possible Winter Wx

[Curt]

Separated to avoid confusion  

So far this looks like a nuicance snow in the Memphis area with maybe in inch from the EURO and less from GFS. CMC obvioulsy bullish on a major winter event in Memphis.

[msweather]

Whats the set up for West TN?

[Curt]

Whats the set up for West TN?

EURO and GFS have us on the cold side the entire time but moisture is meager. Low runs from South LA to the Apps in the TN/NC border. CMC really phases the ULL and the LP which would be a much bigger deal especially for Arkansas and West TN.

[mempho]

Curt, you have started a new thread while I was posting, so I'm the first to add some pics...(NSFW guys):

Just for fun...

Neither snow....



Nor sleet....




Nor rain....uh oh, the rain is freezing

[bugalou]

I think the weather models won't have a grip on this system until the current monster rolls through and heads north.  Late Wednesday into Thursday we should have a better feeling for the weekend.  I will say when the Euro and the CMC have generally agreed this winter, they have done very well.

[jmundie]

NAM says congrats New Orleans

Edit: Can't post the image here.

NAM 84 hour shows 2-6 inches from NOLA to Jackson Mississippi.

[Kevin]

NAM says congrats New Orleans

Edit: Can't post the image here.

NAM 84 hour shows 2-6 inches from NOLA to Jackson Mississippi.

[Curt]

Wouldnt that be hilarious? This is moisture on the leading edge of the system that would hit the cold air before warming. Will need to see if the NAM ever picks up on the ULL which would still not have exerted any force yet further north. Of course, afterall, this is the NAM at hour 84.

[Woodvegas]

West TN...West TN...Blah, blah, BLAH!! I'm sick of you'uns gettin' all the snow. You BIG snow hogs!!    Pass a few over here to us poor Knoxville folks. Pretty please??

You need to have a long talk with Mr. Euro if you want snow this weekend...

[Clay]

lol Clay, Homemommy lives in Knoxville (or close to it), and I live very close to it; we both can verify that 6 inches did NOT fall on December 25th/26th, and 4 inches did NOT fall on Jan. 10th. Dec 25th we recieved 2-3 inches, and 2 inches during that 'big dog' system.

I thought that was a little strange as well... it does say 2.5 fell on the 25th and 3.9 on the 26th though?

Back to the upcoming event, 18z GFS spits out about .1" of QPF (all snow) for BNA and about .15 for TYS (all snow).

[Stovepipe]

Accumulation gradients have been very sharp for the storms around here this season.  Literally in a 10 minute drive you could see between 2 and 6 inches in some cases.  The airport managed to fair a little better than the rest of the county for totals.

[bugalou]

My thoughts exactly. East, West, North, and South. Take your pick. Anywhere but here.

I think the consensus for all of us in this area is give us 6+ inches 8+ inches or keep it. 
I wouldn't read into the AFDs too much though. This current storm and it's evolution is going to affect the latter one.  At this point it's all going to be gray until this storm passes.

[Curt]

I think our better shot will be next week with the arctic cold front. GFS Ensembles show good potential here as the LP moves to the south. Should start seeing NAO and AO tank after this.

[Woodvegas]

1/31 18Z GDEX does not fail....snow down to the Gulf of Mexico!

[keithinala]

1/31 18Z GDEX does not fail....snow down to the Gulf of Mexico!

Go DGEX..and move north!