Feb 1-2 Winter Storm (Rain/Wind for TN)

[KG4GKE]

<Applauds enthusiastically>

[Curt]

12z EURO ensemble mean. LP is much more similar to GFS, suppressed vs lakes cutter. Need to really keep an eye on this for next week. 

[Tom23]

Looks pretty good right now, at least.

[Eric]

Looks pretty good right now, at least.

Pretty weak low at 1012mb.  I'm going to give this one a few days before attempting to break 'er down.

[keithinala]

From very conservative met Dan Satterfield:

Long range forecast is very difficult today- there seems to be a pretty good chance of a major intrusion of Polar air in the middle of next week. The Euro model is actually very cold with hints of single digits or lower...The Canadian ensembles are saying the same.

[Tom23]

From very conserative met Dan Satterfield:

Lows next week could get  if the Euro's single digits prevail.

[Curt]

Pretty weak low at 1012mb.  I'm going to give this one a few days before attempting to break 'er down.

And plenty of time to do so. Temps will be nearing 60 this weekend, so enjoy!

[aubieman]

And plenty of time to do so. Temps will be nearing 60 this weekend, so enjoy!

I couldn't believe that when I saw it.  Murfreesboro isn't supposed to get out of the mid-40s.  Of course, we are a good 17 degrees colder than yall at the moment!

[tsmith7101]

What is the correlation of +PNA to a -NAO in a La Nina Winter? It seems to be just the opposite of a -NAO? ?

[Star1021Scott]

Latest AFD from OHX

"MODELS DIFFER BIG-TIME COME THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK ON NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT MID STATE. EUROPEAN IS WARMER WHILE GFS IS COLDER. EUROPEAN
HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVERALL THIS WINTER SEASON A WEEK OUT."

Euro is not warmer?  

[Curt]

I couldn't believe that when I saw it.  Murfreesboro isn't supposed to get out of the mid-40s.  Of course, we are a good 17 degrees colder than yall at the moment!

Yeah we have had sun today

Euro actually gets Nashville close to 60 this weekend too. GFS not so bullish on Memphis or Nashville reaching 60. Either way, 50 and sunny will be most pleasant.

[Curt]

Ok this is it from me today, because I really (like you) need a break from this stuff. However, todays 18z GFS hr 168 and EURO ENS(Feb 2) look perilously similar. GFS has consistently cranked out something for days now in this period.

[dwagner88]

I seriously had three different people tell me today that there is gonna be a blizzard in February. Because the Farmer's Almanac said so. I remain skeptical.

[tennessee storm09]

i say by the early looks of this system, we may be flirting with a ice threat. as we move in to february more in more ice is my main concerns. we are soon see this artic fronts get hung up and stall to our south. that puts us in the shallow layer of artic air and the low rides the boundary then you have a mess. but i do have a good feeling about one more good snow threat also.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I seriously had three different people tell me today that there is gonna be a blizzard in February. Because the Farmer's Almanac said so. I remain skeptical.