Feb 1-2 Winter Storm (Rain/Wind for TN)

[maryvillereb2003]

this storm has been showing up on the Euro and the GFS for a few days now, lets see where this thing goes!

[Tom23]

this storm has been showing up on the Euro and the GFS for a few days now, lets see where this thing goes!

Whats the basic layout? Temps an issue? Suppression may exist??

[Adam]

Whats the basic layout? Temps an issue? Suppression may exist??

Temps are always and issue in tennessee tom.

[Tom23]

Temps are always and issue in tennessee tom.

Exactly. And if its cold, the dry air presents itself... and if its not dry air, then the low is too far south to help anyone other than S. Tn.

[maryvillereb2003]

Exactly. And if its cold, the dry air presents itself... and if its not dry air, then the low is too far south to help anyone other than S. Tn.

lol there are no details on this storm except that the threat exists and is something to watch

[snowdog]

Todays Euro says lakes cutter.

[Curt]

Love how the 12z EURO takes Memphis from rain and 55 to 30 in a few hours with rain chaning to snow and ice. GFS already has the cold in place and is all snow.

[Coach B]

GFS already has the cold in place and is all snow.

Yep and this from Spann's afternoon update:

NEXT WEEK: Snow lovers remain focused on the potential Ground Hog Day storm Wednesday of next week; the 12Z GFS remains bullish on winter weather mischief with a surface low roaring out of the Gulf of Mexico, and Polar air invading the state from the north. But, we all know this is still voodoo since the event is still 8 days away. But, you have to be amazed by the consistency of the good ole GFS on this one.

Of course, it'll stay consistent until we get close enough for it to yank it out from under us. 

[Tom23]

Yep and this from Spann's afternoon update:
Of course, it'll stay consistent until we get close enough for it to yank it out from under us.  

Definitely not placing my eggs in the basket with the Gfs. I'm going to have to go with the Euro/Canadian, as the Gfs is just not a good model to follow, especially at this range

[Curt]

Definitely not placing my eggs in the basket with the Gfs. I'm going to have to go with the Euro/Canadian, as the Gfs is just not a good model to follow, especially at this range

Actually the GFS seems to really catch on to an idea 7-10 days out that this winter, seems to be correct. Its the medium range where it loses things, just like the storm today. Within 3 days it seems to catch back on. So I would not remotely discount this period on the GFS; and the EURO has been backing this trend on and off as well.

[snowdog]

Could the 2 major models be in any more disagreement?  At 168hrs the 00z Euro has a lakes cutter whereas the GFS shows suppression.   

[Eric]

Could the 2 major models be in any more disagreement?  At 168hrs the 00z Euro has a lakes cutter whereas the GFS shows suppression.   

Throw in the Canuck with a southern slider and we have MODEL MADNESS!

[toastido]

[Curt]

My thoughts exactly. AND if the 12z GFS has its way.....shallow cold arctic air plus possible overrunning = much worse than a pretty 3-4 inch snow. Good news? Its 7 days away!

[tsmith7101]

When you say early feburary what dates are you talking for the next system?