Miller A: Jan 25-26

[Math/Met]

Well, it was certainly too warm to get much snow here today.  We ended up with only a dusting in Greeneville.

This system is a classic example of why it is so hard to forecast ULL.  I think we can all agree that the actual system that occurred was nothing like what was modeled several days ago. Once the models started diverging on their solutions, forecasting basically became a guess.

On a side note, MRX has the dynamical cooling snowstorm of 1998 on their “Local Weather History for January 27” on the main page of the website. The 1998 snowstorm in East Tennessee is a great example of the power of dynamic cooling.  At an official data site in Greene County, the high temperature the day before the 1998 system was 56 degrees. The next day, temperatures were well above freezing, but 18 inches of snow fell (officially at that site). The following day, the temperature reached a high of 48 degrees. Keep in mind that it was 48 degrees with 18 inches of snow on the ground. That implies a really warm air mass.  So, an 18 inch snowstorm occurred during a time when the air mass was well above normal for January before and after the storm. The dynamics and track of that system were obviously more favorable than today’s system, but it wasn’t all that different than what was originally being projected by several models for today’s event.  If we could have maintained a stronger system with a more favorable track (like originally modeled), then it makes you wonder what might have happened.

[Coach B]

So, an 18 inch snowstorm occurred during a time when the air mass was well above normal for January before and after the storm. The dynamics and track of that system were obviously more favorable than today’s system, but it wasn’t all that different than what was originally being projected by several models for today’s event.  If we could have maintained a stronger system with a more favorable track (like originally modeled), then it makes you wonder what might have happened.

Great point.  I heard alot of people say "it was just a little warm".  Well yes and no.  The temps were borderline, but as you just showed temps are not the deciding factor in ULL accums.  The strength and track are just as if not more important than the temps.  In other words, if the storm is strong enough and tracks favorably then the temps don't seem to matter.

[Thundersnow]

Great point.  I heard alot of people say "it was just a little warm".  Well yes and no.  The temps were borderline, but as you just showed temps are not the deciding factor in ULL accums.  The strength and track are just as if not more important than the temps.  In other words, if the storm is strong enough and tracks favorably then the temps don't seem to matter.

Well... at some point, they will matter to a degree (excuse the pun).

A strong ULL could come through with temperatures in the 70s, and a snowflake with have a... well, uh... a snowflake's chance in 70 degree weather of surviving it to the ground, no matter how strong the dynamic cooling.

At some point, there is a threshold of what dynamic cooling from a ULL can overcome.  Mid 30s to 40 degrees... sure.  A little higher than that... maybe.  Get into the 50s or higher, and it really starts to get questionable about whether it's possible.

[aubieman]

I'm obviously a newbie to this forum.  I noticed that the Miller A thread is now to 218 pages in length.  Any of you veterans know what the longest thread at tennesseewx has been?

[Thundersnow]

I'm obviously a newbie to this forum.  I noticed that the Miller A thread is now to 218 pages in length.  Any of you veterans know what the longest thread at tennesseewx has been?

I think there has been a 500-page thread before.

[Kevin]

According to our stats page...

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php?action=stats

The longest thread (in terms of replies) goes to the Winter Storm Last Jan 28-30. A check of that thread shows it went to 311 pages with 4,663 posts. Just barely behind was our "Big Dog" storm earlier this month at 4,555 posts and 304 pages. The Miller A thread is currently the 4th biggest in site history, with 3,259 (now 60) posts.

[Thundersnow]

A check of that thread shows it went to 311 pages with 4,663 posts.

Yep... just saw that.  So, we haven't quite made it to 500 pages on a single thread.

311 is still a lot...

[Kevin]

Yep... just saw that.  So, we haven't quite made it to 500 pages on a single thread.

311 is still a lot...

That it is. Most of the overall site/traffic records (on a per-monthly basis...at least) have been well broken through this month. You can see that towards the bottom of the stats page.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Great point.  I heard alot of people say "it was just a little warm".  Well yes and no.  The temps were borderline, but as you just showed temps are not the deciding factor in ULL accums.  The strength and track are just as if not more important than the temps.  In other words, if the storm is strong enough and tracks favorably then the temps don't seem to matter.

Agreed

Also most of the big ones I remember in east TN, were all in borderline or early spring type air masses. Whether that be a cold air grabbing monster surface cyclone inserted into a borderline air mass, or a cold air producing ULL inserted into the same type air mass.

[aubieman]

According to our stats page...

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php?action=stats

The longest thread (in terms of replies) goes to the Winter Storm Last Jan 28-30. A check of that thread shows it went to 311 pages with 4,663 posts. Just barely behind was our "Big Dog" storm earlier this month at 4,555 posts and 304 pages. The Miller A thread is currently the 4th biggest in site history, with 3,259 (now 60) posts.

Ask and ye shall receive.  Thanks.  Hope we have another Big Dog to top them all!