January Cold/Winter Weather Chances

[Curt]

A ways off and obviously plenty of time...but am beginning to winder about the period of 18-19th, especially west half of Tennessee and AR. Tonights 0z GFS shows an arctic cold front stalling just to the east of Memphis with a couple of waves of low pressure. Could be an interesting period, and is my next bet that we will have a new thread in a few days on this. Yes, I am posting a map a week away.  

No I'm not...go check it out at Raleighex GFS ensembles hr 180. Ops suggest a stalling pattern with overruning freezing and sleet, followed by bitter cold temps.

[John1122]

Dont worry, I'll post some maps  

GGEM maps for 17th and 18th. I believe the GGEM was an early rider on the GOM solution to this storm.

[John1122]

The 18z GFS takes the same storm from Northern Miss to Northern Georgia/Upstate SC.

[John1122]

And the 00z comes towards the GGEM. Even thought it's showing warmth and rain here at 180 now, I really like the position of the LP and the HP on these maps and don't think it would be rain here.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

SEXY

[Coach B]

Spann's morning voodoo outlook:

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Monday will be a rather mild and breezy day (we might even touch the 60 degree mark) with a few showers possible, but both the GFS and the ECMWF now project the main chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday with a strong cold front. This front represents the leading edge of much colder air, and that will blow into Alabama by Wednesday of next week. This will be very cold, and we might have a hard time getting above freezing Wednesday with lows down toward 10 degrees by Thursday of next week, but this look like the last cold shot in the series as the NAO heads toward neutral territory, meaning the last 10 days of January could very well feature above average temperatures for a change.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

6z gfs keeps the idea of a Rain to heavy snow with a strong secondary low forming along the cold front of a lakes cutter/Apps runner



 

[snowdog]

Spann's morning voodoo outlook:

Spann ignoring the -AO? or maybe the -AO doesnt affect them as much as it does us although I would have to believe it would. 

[Curt]

Looks like may ens members are starting to forecast a positive AO by month's end. Could be a nice January thaw.

[Crockett]

Looks like may ens members are starting to forecast a positive AO by month's end. Could be a nice January thaw.

[Milodog2]

Yes sir, ready for some T-Storms

[tsmith7101]

Uh Oh! 

http://firsthandweather.com/blog/uncategorized/this-year-2011-could-be-a-worse-year-for-tornadoes-this-is-a-dangerous-situation

[JayCee]

Looks like may ens members are starting to forecast a positive AO by month's end. Could be a nice January thaw.

Me and my electric bill would be most grateful....

[Crockett]

I'm not ready to buy the +AO the GFS ensembles are selling us, by any means. The models have really struggled with the teleconnections this winter, especially the AO and NAO. For weeks the ensembles have had the NAO trending positive about 7-10 days out and it just hasn't happened...until now, with the NAO.

With the NAO now neutral for the first time since mid November and probably on the verge of going positive for the first time since early October and the AO modeled to perhaps venture well into positive territory by the end of the month, I sure do like the chances for a late January/early February warm-up.

The next question is whether this is a bonafide late winter thaw and long-term pattern change or merely a brief reprieve as the arctics reload and prepare to dump on us again in mid February. Frankly, I'm ready for the former. It's easy for me to say that since we've had plenty of snow IMBY this winter, but I say bring on fishing weather. 

[tsmith7101]

If the NAO flips, and the AO flips are we in for severe storms during this warm up? Or is the AO gonna to stay where its at giving us cold air. Why would the AO flip too?