January Cold/Winter Weather Chances

[Kevin]

Continue discussion here of the January winter threats not related to this upcoming weekend (Jan 9-10)...

[SnowSeek]

Man is this even remotely possible?

http://www.daculaweather.com/gfs_ensemble_precip_06_animated.php

[Adam]

Light precip covers like the whole northern two thirds of the United States lol

[SnowSeek]

yeah for like 18 days straight lol

[Adam]

Was that the GFS?

[Thundersnow]

I assume it's just seeing a pattern that lends itself toward clippers and disturbances coming down the pike in a northwest flow.

[jmundie]

Guys, the further out you go on the ensemble mean, the more likely it will show precip everywhere. Its an avg of like 16 different possible solutions, and the further out it goes, the more likely its going to show the possibility of precipitation nearly everywhere.

[SnowSeek]

Oh that makes sense...

So that map is bunk for the most part cause 16 solutions will show precip in at least a few of the frames.

Blah

[jmundie]

Oh that makes sense...

So that map is bunk for the most part cause 16 solutions will show precip in at least a few of the frames.

Blah

Its not bunk. its a tool. You don't take the precip maps literally on the ensemble mean outside a couple days. More important is looking at the overall pattern, or looking at the track of the low pressure and comparing it to the op run.

[keithinala]

Cold coming SE

[tennessee storm09]

i know we have a couple os systems we are eyeing now, but man the 15th keeps looking like the real deal to me. and thats the system that should bring down the mother load of artic air down. good times may lie ahead

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

The arctic air coming down around that time might be super super cold maybe inhibiting wintry precip but we shall see

[snowdog]

Anyone notice the long range Euro last night.  Keeps the cold bottled up in the northern plains.  Also notice how close the 850 temps lines are.  The 10c line isnt far from the -20c line up in northern Nebraska.  That cant be good. 

[SnowSeek]

I have forgotten to look ahead with all these storms we are currently modeling....how's the long range threats looking?

[John1122]

Wow the 06z really shows some massive potential for the 16th-18th or so. I am sure it will change but wow.