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Author Topic: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances  (Read 20497 times)

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Offline Kevin

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January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« on: January 05, 2011, 11:30:08 AM »
Continue discussion here of the January winter threats not related to this upcoming weekend (Jan 9-10)...
Kevin Terry
Nowcaster/Social Media Intern
MemphisWeather.Net

Offline SnowSeek

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2011, 01:20:01 PM »

Offline Adam

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2011, 01:27:50 PM »
Light precip covers like the whole northern two thirds of the United States lol ::shrug::
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Offline SnowSeek

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2011, 01:30:26 PM »
yeah for like 18 days straight lol

Offline Adam

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2011, 01:34:46 PM »
Was that the GFS?
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2011, 01:38:05 PM »
I assume it's just seeing a pattern that lends itself toward clippers and disturbances coming down the pike in a northwest flow.

Offline jmundie

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2011, 01:39:04 PM »
Guys, the further out you go on the ensemble mean, the more likely it will show precip everywhere. Its an avg of like 16 different possible solutions, and the further out it goes, the more likely its going to show the possibility of precipitation nearly everywhere.


Offline SnowSeek

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2011, 01:41:22 PM »
Oh that makes sense...

So that map is bunk for the most part cause 16 solutions will show precip in at least a few of the frames.

Blah

Offline jmundie

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2011, 01:45:24 PM »
Oh that makes sense...

So that map is bunk for the most part cause 16 solutions will show precip in at least a few of the frames.

Blah


Its not bunk. its a tool. You don't take the precip maps literally on the ensemble mean outside a couple days. More important is looking at the overall pattern, or looking at the track of the low pressure and comparing it to the op run.

Offline keithinala

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2011, 02:51:49 PM »
Cold coming SE
Snow in the South is wonderful. It has a kind of magic and mystery that it has nowhere else. And the reason for this is that it comes to people in the South not as the grim, unyielding tenant of Winter's keep, but as a strange and wild visitor from the secret North. -THOMAS WOLFE

Offline tennessee storm09

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2011, 05:17:23 PM »
i know we have a couple os systems we are eyeing now, but man the 15th keeps looking like the real deal to me. and thats the system that should bring down the mother load of artic air down. good times may lie ahead ::snowman::

Offline kailynleto | Nightwolf

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2011, 08:06:58 PM »
The arctic air coming down around that time might be super super cold maybe inhibiting wintry precip but we shall see
Quote
UNIQUE SOUTHERN BONDING EXPERIENCE OF FIGHTING FOR THE LAST MILK AND BREAD ON THE SHELVES AS THE STORM APPROACHES.
i just got off work and seen the latest gfs, its most def. smoking some good sh-t.
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Offline snowdog

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2011, 07:09:26 AM »
Anyone notice the long range Euro last night.  Keeps the cold bottled up in the northern plains.  Also notice how close the 850 temps lines are.  The 10c line isnt far from the -20c line up in northern Nebraska.  That cant be good. 

Offline SnowSeek

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2011, 09:38:45 AM »
I have forgotten to look ahead with all these storms we are currently modeling....how's the long range threats looking?

Offline John1122

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Re: January Cold/Winter Weather Chances
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2011, 05:20:47 AM »
Wow the 06z really shows some massive potential for the 16th-18th or so. I am sure it will change but wow.







 

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