January 6th-8th Clipper

[Tom23]

A good friend and Met and I have been talking over the last several hours. His thoughts are that OHX is freaking out right now.

12NAM supports Winter Storm Warning.
HIRES NMM def supports Winter storm warning!
12z GFS support Snow advisory.

I reckon thats good for East Tn as well, as we look to have less issues with temps than you all according to the models.

[Stovepipe]

I reckon thats good for East Tn as well, as we look to have less issues with temps than you all according to the models.

Tom, as it stands right now, we look to be affected more by the clippity clipper than the wednesday event.  But let's wait and see what the RUC has to say about all of this.

[snowdog]

A good friend and Met and I have been talking over the last several hours. Thoughts are that OHX is freaking out right now.

12NAM supports Winter Storm Warning.
HIRES NMM def supports Winter storm warning!
12z GFS support Snow advisory.

Thanks for the info, keep us updated with anything new. 

[jmundie]

NAM holding serve

[Stovepipe]

Based on what I'm seeing on the NAM, I think some of us might be in for a good one-two punch before the end of the week.  If it doesn't warm too bad on Sunday, it might even be a one-two-three punch.  I'm surprised there is not more discussion about this.  Nary a weenie to be found.  

[Sbeagles]

It is times like this that I'm jealous of those north of 40.

[snowdog]

NAM holding serve

Indeed it did. Showing over .25" QPF and thickness values continue to look good.  

[Dave R]

OHX's first acknowledgment of snow possibility for Wednesday

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
226 PM CST Tuesday Jan 4 2011


Discussion...
current...weak trough moving across County Warning Area. Relatively mild day...with
temperatures in upper 40s to lower 5os.


Models have really beefed up the pop chances for the next seven
days compared to this time yesterday. Three weather systems to
consider. Model variability hi so went close to GFS solution.


1) first system tomorrow. Low pressure moves east across southeast states with lite
quantitative precipitation forecast to north of it. Looking at wet bulb forecasts...over middle state...should be
enough cold air northern sections for a lite accumulation of S.


2) clipper like system dropping southeast from ohvly will bring a chance
of snow mainly NE after midnite Thursday night...lingering into Friday
morning. Possible inch northern plateau.


3) sun and beyond trickiest part of forecast with models all over
the place. Chance of some snow changing to rain then back to snow
again. This will be a challenge for forecasters for the next
several days.


Temperatures will continue on the cold side.

[Kevin]

OHX's first acknowledgment of snow possibility for Wednesday

Actually...apparently they're calling for a lot of letter S's to fall out of the sky and accumulate.

[shaft311]

From www.nashvillewx.com

"Forecast update: monitoring the possibility of Wednesday winter weather
January 4th, 2011 - 2:31 pm by Justin Bruce

The computer models we use to help make our forecasts are starting to show a different picture with respect to our Wednesday weather.

Instead of temperatures in the low 40s, Wednesday may only bring highs in the middle 30s. With temperatures in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere right around the freezing mark, things could get interesting: what originally looked like a chance of some light rain showers for Wednesday afternoon and evening now appears to be the possibility of a wintry mix of rain, snow and sleet."

[Nashville_wx]

 Interesting setup we have here. Temperatures for this first event are going to setup right along I-40 it seems. Right now OHX is playing it easy till tonights 00Z runs to confirm the QPF increase and overall forecast confidence. Good omega values at H7 can cause increase lift which tends to cool the layers which would favor enhanced snowfall growth. If temps here in Nashville stay below freezing throughout the entire layer then this is going interesting.  For Friday the Question is how far West this clipper comes. Areas NE are always favored.

[StormAlertWX]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EST TUE JAN 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MODELS HAVE FINALLY
COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
APPROACHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. SREF ALSO AGREES QUITE WELL. APPEARS
THIS WILL BE A CASE WHERE THERE`S A RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW
QPF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER. HAVE BUMPED YUP
POPS CONSIDERABLE THERE TO LIKELY. UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP GOING MOST LOCATIONS. FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY.

There AFD'S (MRX) are always just Blah. I want Nashville's NWS lol

[Kevin]

There AFD'S (MRX) are always just Blah. I want Nashville's NWS lol

The Nashville AFD was pretty poor to be honest.

[StormAlertWX]

Yeah I was just saying that most of the time Nashville's NWS does a better job.

[Eric]

Yeah I was just saying that most some of the time Nashville's NWS does a better job.

FTFY.