January 6th-8th Clipper

[Eric]

Talk amongst yourselves.

[Adam]

With the NAM trending wetter, i would have to think there will be some evaporational cooling I-40 north. These next few model runs should lock in to what will happen. I would also like to see the RUC.

[snowdog]

With the NAM trending wetter, i would have to think there will be some evaporational cooling I-40 north. These next few model runs should lock in to what will happen. I would also like to see the RUC.

We are about 15 to 18 hours before getting into RUC time. 

[snowdog]

12z GFS says little precip and warm surface temps.  Of course at this range we are getting more into the NAM's range and not the GFS. 

[jmundie]

Here's the 0z Canadian FWIW

[Adam]

I know but i am just saying that i want to see it when we get closer to the storm since it did so well with the last snow.

[jmundie]

12z GFS says little precip and warm surface temps.  Of course at this range we are getting more into the NAM's range and not the GFS. 

I'm ignoring the globals actual output at this point. They are not sure how to handle this pattern, as made clear by last night's giant cut off low sitting in the middle of the country with little to no precip anywhere.

It has trended a bit stronger with the vort coming through tomorrow. But none of the globals have had any consistancy with the upcoming pattern yet. I don't trust them.

[jmundie]

12z GFS says little precip and warm surface temps.  Of course at this range we are getting more into the NAM's range and not the GFS. 

GFS is WAY wetter than yesterdays run.

[Sbeagles]

Im going to go with a cold rain possible mixing with snow at times south of the great I 40 divide but thats just my opinion.

[Adam]

Im going to go with a cold rain possible mixing with snow at times south of the great I 40 divide but thats just my opinion.

I dont know about snow, probably some sleet though.

[snowdog]

I dont know about snow, probably some sleet though.

Probably wont be much sleet. 

[Stovepipe]

The GFS has been showing between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of snow for the valley from this Thur/Fri clipper for a few days now.  This 12z run looks to be consistent with that although I've not seen the buffkit yet.

[jmundie]

Probably wont be much sleet. 

Adam, For sleet to form, you have to have a small warm layer in the atmosphere where snow falling melts, and then refreezes before falling to the ground.

We'll either have snow or nothing here. If 850s warm above freezing, and ground temps are above freezing, it will be a cold dreary rain.

If 850s stay below, and surface is marginal, we may still get snow.

[Charles L.]

With the trends of past weather systems this winter, I am going to go along and say the QPF's and temps. may be a bit underdone and overexaggerated respectively. I mean out of most systems we have seen, this has been the case...so I do not see why this one would also not be the same.

I do agree this looks like an I-40 north event, though areas south could see some snow mix in. None of the NWS offices around have much of a chance for this period though...

[Adam]

Adam, For sleet to form, you have to have a small warm layer in the atmosphere where snow falling melts, and then refreezes before falling to the ground.

We'll either have snow or nothing here. If 850s warm above freezing, and ground temps are above freezing, it will be a cold dreary rain.

If 850s stay below, and surface is marginal, we may still get snow.

Okay i was waiting for an explanation, so it is all up to the tempretures.