Jan 9-10 BIG DOG Storm

[tennessee storm09]

Bruce I think we can put the La Nina torch rumor to bed, winter will not be over until spring

The AO/NAO may go slightly positive towards the 1st of JAN but its forecasted to go right back into negative range. If you're looking for substaining spring conditions it will probably have to wait until spring.

i hope you are right on this. i am hearing both sides of the story. i dont think no one really knows.

[ajatwister]

Probably both the luckiest and unluckiest storm of recent memory for Memphis...

Lucky in that we escaped freezing rain...which was the original thinking and forecast. That would have been disastrous. Unlucky (at least for snowlovers) in that we couldn't cool the column completely to turn that over to snow. That would have been a huge event because there was about a full inch of liquid that was nothing but sleet...which probably accounted for 90% of the "White Christmas" we ended up having with that 2-3" depth.

Gosh I remember that storm. It was all freezing rain here, with a dusting of snow. I managed to find a old tape of it that I took when I was about 11.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WWf6abawjA

[Cyclonicjunkie]

i hope you are right on this. i am hearing both sides of the story. i dont think no one really knows.

No one knows for sure as forecasts can change on a dime, but find me something besides some  (old worn out "raging Nina" analogs)  that can support an early end to winter?

[tennessee storm09]

No one knows for sure as forecasts can change on a dime, but find me something besides some (old warn out "raging Nina" analogs) that support an early end to winter

i guess the climate   prediction center. i guess toot  80 days out.

[Crockett]

i hope you are right on this. i am hearing both sides of the story. i dont think no one really knows.

I think your last sentence says it all: no one really knows. Lots of folks are hedging their bets one way or the other, hoping that they're right so they can slap themselves on the back later. For sure, there's less of an argument that can be made for a major January-February 'torch than there was just a few short weeks ago. Either way, this winter will be looked back at a learning tool for future La Nina patterns. It's been fascinating so far.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

i guess the climate   prediction center. i guess toot  80 days out.

80 days out is March, when winter normally starts to take a back seat to spring

[tennessee storm09]

80 days out is March, when winter normally starts to take a back seat to spring

i meant the 90 days forecast . january, february, and march.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

i meant the 90 days forecast . january, february, and march.

It looks to me that CPC is just using regular, old, ordinary climatology for their forecasts.

Here is their January temp outlook



Here is what happened Jan 96 which had record cold and the Blizzard of 96



Now of course Feb and March would average out Climatologically warmer than that and is to be expected, so IMO the CPC is calling for a pretty normal (which would be cold) rest of winter.

[snowdog]

I'm ready for Nashville to cash in on a big dog event.  Havent had one here since 2003.  These 2 to 3" events are nice but they are wetting my appetite for something bigger.  Here's to a January Big Dog!!!   

Also good discussion in this thread.  Enjoying the read.   

[Coach B]

I hate ice events, as they are usually (not always) related to weak, puny non interesting systems IMO. I like cold air grabbing big dog cyclones, that have no choice but to lay down some heavy snow.  

Speak for yourself. While I don't wish a damaging ice storm on anyone, over here in the less snow blessed part of the state we generally take any kind of system we can get.  

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Speak for yourself. Over here in the less snow blessed part of the state we take any kind of system we can get.

lol  I was speaking for myself

I hate ice events, as they are usually (not always) related to weak, puny non interesting systems IMO. I like cold air grabbing big dog cyclones, that have no choice but to lay down some heavy snow.  

But I hope you get dumped on over there this month since you have been less blessed

[Curt]

After living in east and west TN, (and still have a residence in Sevier Co.), west and middle TN are much better suited for ice storms (if you really want one) than east TN. Shallow arctic airmasses(unlike what we have seen this winter with not so shallow arctic air) have a much easier time penetrating or bleeding through west and middle before getting stuck west of the plateau. It sets the stage for an overrunning situation and in some cases significant overrunning ala Feb 1994. Its weird, but the flatter places seem to filter the arctic air much better than steep terrain. Eastern AR is a perfect set up for these types of events and quite frequently these types of shallow air masses bleed through the delta even better than slightly more elevated west TN. Its a simple principle of physics...cold dense air masses will find the path of least resistance. Most historic ice storms in the state are from these regions rather than from the mts. I never saw a major freezing rain event while living in Ktown, although it doesnt mean it hasnt happened.

[Curt]

just got through reading some disturbing news on another forum. few mets think winter will be over soon here in the southeast. the ao goes positive and sstays that.  saying by the mid of january the ole southeast ridge will pop up on us. dont know to agree with this or disaaagree. this bieing a la nina. time will tell.

I think its obvious now that ENSO is not the only factor guiding this winter. I'm not saying we have massive cold and snow, but if a forecaster is ready to say winter is over in the southeast, good luck. Sounds like he may be from the DC area and just bitter that they missed all the snow this go around.  

My bet is we are not though by any means with winter precip chances. All patterns go through a cycle of warm and cold; the good winters seem to return to its roots several times during the winter through. Time will tell.

I'm not a big believer in analogs but Ive now noticed that 50-51 and 16-17 keep coming up. After checking records in the Memphis area, both had cold and snow in December. Both had 70's afterwards for a few days to a couple of weeks (which I can just see posters saying "see told you, it will torch", followed by the deep freeze and major winter storms.

[jmundie]

After living in east and west TN, (and still have a residence in Sevier Co.), west and middle TN are much better suited for ice storms (if you really want one) than east TN. Shallow arctic airmasses(unlike what we have seen this winter with not so shallow arctic air) have a much easier time penetrating or bleeding through west and middle before getting stuck west of the plateau. It sets the stage for an overrunning situation and in some cases significant overrunning ala Feb 1994. Its weird, but the flatter places seem to filter the arctic air much better than steep terrain. Eastern AR is a perfect set up for these types of events and quite frequently these types of shallow air masses bleed through the delta even better than slightly more elevated west TN. Its a simple principle of physics...cold dense air masses will find the path of least resistance. Most historic ice storms in the state are from these regions rather than from the mts. I never saw a major freezing rain event while living in Ktown, although it doesnt mean it hasnt happened.

Elevation also causes bad freezing rain situations just on the other side of the apps. They also stop the WAA at the surface. Ice storms used to be frequent in GA and NC due to cold air damming. Same kinda issue was at place in the North American Ice Storm of 1998. Mountains preventing warm air from making it to the surface.

Here's a photo of that ice storm.

[jmundie]

Anyone else watching the GFS. I'm still not certain this current system couldn't end up producing some sort of frozen precip. There is so much energy dropping down the west side of the trough... GFS develops two of them into storms. If a third comes up as the front passes through, it could be interesting.