Jan 9-10 BIG DOG Storm

[Cyclonicjunkie]

 

















If your looking for snow, climatology says this is your month
As you already know we normally do better in the snow department in January than we do in December.



Discuss

[JayCee]

So, guess you might be staying at your brother's house all month.  Your mountain may not be accessible until spring.   

[Cyclonicjunkie]

So, guess you might be staying at your brother's house all month.  Your mountain may not be accessible until spring.   

Oh I will get back, by airdrop if I have to



 

[JayCee]

Hope your parachute has been checked out:    Don't know if a "highly" negative NAO works in our favor, as I've heard a more subtle neg NAO is better for snow here.  Guess we'll see.  

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 04 - 10 2011  
 
DURING WEEK 2 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE  
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AS A TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE  
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN INDICATES THAT THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) INDEX WILL BECOME  
HIGHLY NEGATIVE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE NEGATIVE NAO INDEX  
IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING A LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT  
ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT AND SOUTHERN GREENLAND.
THE OFFICIAL BLEND  500-HPA HEIGHT CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER 48  
AND NEAR AVERAGE HEIGHTS ACROSS ALASKA.
 
PERSISTENT, BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE ODDS FOR  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS  
COMPARED TO DAYS 6-10 AND A NEGATIVE NAO INDEX FAVOR NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST THE EASTERN CONUS. DUE TO VARYING SIGNALS FROM THE  
PRECIPITATION TOOLS, THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. AN  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST  
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG  
THE WEST COAST.  

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Ive always like this graphic

[mempho]

Hope your parachute has been checked out:    Don't know if a "highly" negative NAO works in our favor, as I've heard a more subtle -NAO is better for snow here.  Guess we'll see. 

Hmmm....I know "epic" is often an overused phrase but the "highly negative NAO" in a strong Nina...well, epic could be the word.

Of course, this is all per modeling and we all know things could change.  

In longer terms, I'm starting to wonder about that hypothesis that states that the NAO is guided by solar irradiance and that a lack of solar irradiance leads to a negative NAO....seeing as how the NAO appears to be remaining staunchly negative in the face of this strong Nina.  The author seemed to speculate that we were entering another period (but a shorter period) with conditions similar to the LIA which, if true, could mean interesting weather for our neck of the woods.

[mempho]

Also of interest is not just the possibility of a highly negative NAO, but also whether that will be east-based or west-based.  Memphis, for instance, has been cold but has not done all that well storm-wise with the east-based pattern that was present throughout much of December.

As a general rule, the state as a whole will have much better chances for big events if we can shift the mean trough position further west.


It appears that the recent blizzard has reshuffled the deck and will set the stage for the next pattern changer in just a few days.  Right now, blowtorch followed by severe wx looks likely towards the end of the week, which should pull behind it another trough across the eastern part of the country.  This could very well become the entrenched pattern, so we will hope that it establishes somewhat further west. 

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Been looking at the Nina winter pattern of 96 because the anniversary of the blizzard of 96 is coming, and I stumbled across this while looking for data .


Now this is what is forecasted by CPC for JAN



And this from Jan96

And this is what is forecasted by CPC for JAN


 
Coincedence??

[JayCee]

Hmmm....I know "epic" is often an overused phrase but the "highly negative NAO" in a strong Nina...well, epic could be the word.

Of course, this is all per modeling and we all know things could change.  

In longer terms, I'm starting to wonder about that hypothesis that states that the NAO is guided by solar irradiance and that a lack of solar irradiance leads to a negative NAO....seeing as how the NAO appears to be remaining staunchly negative in the face of this strong Nina.  The author seemed to speculate that we were entering another period (but a shorter period) with conditions similar to the LIA which, if true, could mean interesting weather for our neck of the woods.

Quote from Space Weather site:

QUIET SUN: Solar activity remains very low. No strong solar flares or geomagnetic storms are expected durng the next 24-48 hours.

The sun has been unusually quiet considering we are supposed to be heading toward solar maximum (2012).  If the hypothesis you mention is true, a Neg NAO could stick around for many winters to come.

[mempho]

Been looking at the Nina winter pattern of 96 because the anniversary of the blizzard of 96 is coming, and I stumbled across this while looking for data .


 

I would expect a big winter storm for that time period....although we still need other things to go in our favor to be the ones to reap the benefits.  

[tennessee storm09]

Also of interest is not just the possibility of a highly negative NAO, but also whether that will be east-based or west-based.  Memphis, for instance, has been cold but has not done all that well storm-wise with the east-based pattern that was present throughout much of December.

As a general rule, the state as a whole will have much better chances for big events if we can shift the mean trough position further west.


It appears that the recent blizzard has reshuffled the deck and will set the stage for the next pattern changer in just a few days.  Right now, blowtorch followed by severe wx looks likely towards the end of the week, which should pull behind it another trough across the eastern part of the country.  This could very well become the entrenched pattern, so we will hope that it establishes somewhat further west. 

thats exactly whats got to happen, the trough has to be further west. that would allow for more digging and creat a big storm.

[mempho]

Quote from Space weather site:
The sun has been unusually quiet considering we are supposed to be heading toward solar maximum.  If the hypothesis you mention is true, a Neg NAO could stick around for many winters to come.

The author of the paper was predicting a shorter "grand minimum" that the previous ones in recorded history...one of about 30 years or so.  Here's the article (which I originally saw over at American)...the whole site is actually very interesting:

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/205


Also, of possible interest A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?:

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189

[mempho]

thats exactly whats got to happen, the trough has to be further west. that would allow for more digging and creat a big storm.

Exactly.  Look at how the Carolinas cashed in on the current pattern.  Even if you're in east-central Tennessee, you're not really getting the really big storms in this pattern because the storms are not digging soon enough to tap the Gulf in time to benefit you. 

Meanwhile, if we get storms that dig to our south and tap the Gulf on the western side, we'll generally be in business and, if that happens, we will normally have plenty of cold air to work with. 

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I can see the centralized trough verifying and that can be great for snow in TN, especially with an active southern stream it would be ideal for snow, but that same trough can also help the nasty SE ridge rear its ugly head if its to far west which can be horrible for snow as we all know.

I like the period around the middle of the month for the next BIG thing though

[jmundie]

I can see the centralized trough verifying and that can be great for snow in TN, especially with an active southern stream it would be ideal for snow, but that same trough can also help the nasty SE ridge rear its ugly head if its to far west which can be horrible for snow as we all know.

I like the period around the middle of the month for the next BIG thing though

And we all know, in Ninas with a southeast ridge and big trough in the center of the country, epic ice storms can occur.

Was 04-05 a Nina? Wasn't that the year Memphis got the epic 3 inch sleet storm at Christmas time when the cold front set up right across middle tennessee?